A 20% tariff on wine sounds simple.

But in the U.S., wine moves through a system designed to multiply cost:

Producer → Importer → Distributor → Retailer → You

Each layer adds its margin.

So when the base price goes up, the whole chain compounds it.

Here’s how imported wine moves through the system:

→ Producer sells the wine for $10

→ Importer adds 35% → $13.50

→ Distributor adds 30% → $17.55

→ Retailer adds 40% → $24.57

That’s how a $10 bottle becomes $25—before any tariff.

That’s just the system.

Now let’s add a 20% tariff to that $10 bottle:

→ Producer + tariff = $12

→ Importer markup → $16.20

→ Distributor markup → $21.06

→ Retailer markup → $29.48

The price didn’t rise by just $2.

It rose almost $5—because each step adds margin to a higher base.

That’s the multiplier effect.

This system what put in place after Prohibition.

The government banned direct sales to control alcohol.

They split the chain into tiers to make it easier to tax and track.

It’s not efficient. But it is law.

And that’s just the sales chain.

Even American wine relies on foreign parts.

Most bottles come from China.

Most corks come from Portugal.

Many barrels come from France.

So tariffs raise production costs here too.

A $10 bottle doesn’t become $30 because of a tariff.

It becomes $30 because of the system.

Tariffs just amplify the effect.

If this helped explain wine pricing in America,

please like or repost to help spread the word.

Tomorrow: how we ended up relying on foreign glass.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Costco is the biggest seller of wine in the US

It will force Costco to offer less variety

Maybe. It'll squeeze specific producers, but there are always others to take their place

My cousin failed to bring my 2022 wines with him, so while I liked this informative tweet;

I’m not gonna lie I feel bad for you son, but I got 99 wine logistics based problems, but tariffs ain’t one. šŸ«”šŸ™Œ

My import duty feeling like it will be a plane ticket that may involve buying some directly from the cellar door. Ah well, when dealt tariff, go peer to peer. 😘

I'm not in that tiered system. Don't feel bad for me!

Ha ha ha, peer to peer cash, always.

Apologies, but any chance to make a reference to jay-z

SEND IT

I hear you

.bummed you didn't get the wine!

Solo trip to nc, followed by trip to Colorado for additional supplies. I got 99 problems, but wine collection ain’t one.

Getting it approved by the fam on the other hand……

🤣🤣🤣my man

Keep going

Meh. I'll just make my own.

Hell yes

24.57*1.2=29.48

I see no compounding?

Bro I might have fucked up the math

hahaha it's okay. I think your point is still valid - because of regulatory bs and middlemen the price of wine is elevated, then apply a percentage tariff to that and it's more punitive than if the wine was cheaper. 20% of a larger number is a larger number.

That's the point I was trying to hit

Appreciate you for reading and looking past my "math"

Yeah, that's kind of the point. It's called "Shoring production." It incentivizes companies to source their materials in America. Thus either keeping the marginal cost similar or less than imported wines. It's not like people don't know what tariffs do, it's the fact that any politician would do it because of this very effect.

Can't reshore a wine industry completely.

Gonna be posting details on that tomorrow

Well, I would say that it is costly and difficult but can be done. America can make glass, cork, and grapes. America also has a long history of booze production so, I wouldn't say it CAN'T be done, just way more difficult.

Google search how much cork is made in America and why

I have researched this before. Again, it's difficult and expensive, not impossible. The United states started planting cork oak after WW2 because the main suppliers (Africa and Europe) had some...issues. There's no reason it can't be expanded now. Also, not that I could predict but, we ARE in the future, is Cork the ONLY way to seal and reseal a bottle?

You're right that cork isn't the only way, but artificial cork and stelvin tops aren't solutions, just different tradeoffs. Youd never way to put a nice red that you're aging in either of those.

Interesting to know more of the history! Thanks for sharing. Would need like 25 years to kickstart the industry, it seems, but glad to know it's doable.

Do you know where in the US?

I think it was Napa out of convenience but I believe a lot of the western US has the climate for it. (Agreed on the other bottling solutions being inadequate for certain wine) I was more saying we are in the future, why don't we have Jetson wine technology by now? 😤

Because fiat stopped (massively slowed) human technological advancement

Not surprised on location.

Come on future! Be the future already!

Buying direct from producer solves so many of life's problems. I loath the middlemen that leech off the productivity of others. Localism fixes this.

Thanks to trump voters: Hello 3 Buck Chuck!

You're welcome

šŸ˜‚. But also, 🤢. I hope domestic winemakers, like yourself, end up benefiting. What you do is not easy!

Who knows what actually ends up happening with it all

margins aren’t random, those companies add it to operate there business, Meaning just because the tariffs add additional costs at the beginning, doesn’t mean that importers, retailers etc need more money to operate, as there overall costs stay the same.

5$ wine has a different margin than 15$ wine and will be ordered in different quantities.

Obviously in reality every step in this chain will try to take advantage and therefore at first prices will rise by more than 2$ but after a while capitalism will optimize itself towards it (maybe šŸ˜…)

All good points

So what I was trying to say here, although the importer for example

takes 30% initially, he actually takes and needs 3.50$ so he can run his business, and doesn’t care for how much he buys and sells the product, he could buy it for 100$ and sell it for 103.5$, that would be a margin of just 3.5% and the tariff would be 1.000%

A new tax for citizens

In the CPG/FMCG sector it's called the product price chain.

It's such a complicated pricing mechanism that varies from one product category to another, and even between products in the same category.

And it gets even worse when you factor in promotional campaigns, and price surging.

It's quite a development challenge getting it right.

To be fair, Trump is trying to figure out how to get to free trade BOTH ways. Right now, that is not the case. I don't think the tariffs will work, because its the money that's broken - not the taxes. But either way, if we did get more free trade BOTH ways, it would benefit everyone.

This is straight up disinformation.

We don't have tarrifs against USA, tarrifs and trade deficits are not the same thing

That 'disinformation' is from JP Morgan and the World Trade Organization.

But it would not be the first time either one of them was wrong! lol

Regardless, its not wrong. The massive trade imbalance the U.S. has is mostly from currency manipulation, but that's another topic. The reality is most countries protect their industries with Tariffs - which is what the graph shows.

Tariffs help CREATE trad deficits - because they create trade imbalance. Again, Trump is trying to reduce or eliminate all tariffs so we have free trade. Of course, as mentioned, this will not change the currency manipulation problem - but that's next....

Here is a list of tariffs by country - as you can clearly see most countries have higher tariffs than the U.S. - which is what the chart shows. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate

Here in Australia the Chinese put tarrifs on our wine a few years back, after the Australian government used domestic alcohol taxes to subsidize wine exports (you could literally buy Australian wine in China or USA or Europe for less than half the price that same wine costs to buy in Australia)

China put tarrifs on Australian wine and it fixed the problem (for China, it's still fucked here in Australia, more than half the cost of alcohol here is just taxes which the government uses to subsidize exports)

Damn that's wild and seems so backwards

Visiting France was a real eye-opener to this fact. €5 can actually buy good wine.

Absolutely. Not in the US, but def in France.

They don't really make high additive, shitty wine there

has always annoyed me immensely.

How do Bitcoin miners get their next round of equipment when bitmain produces 80% of supply and they are paying literally all of their profits on tariffs? I am pretty sure the top 8 mines are in Texas.

Rekt bro

It's so over