I wonder if the inconsistency is related to the connection between weather and flowering?

If there’s frosts after they bud, they could lose a lot of flowers. And related plants like apples rely on a certain length of time of cold weather to produce flower buds.

It might be possible to predict when you’ll have a good crop of pears.

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Agreed, I was starting to that that some local dummy planted some non fruit producing flowering pear trees, it was just an old tree & past it’s prime or maybe it had some weird pear disease that wasn’t showing yet. This has flowered gloriously a few years - with no crop, so this year when it flowered gloriously I just wrote it off as beautiful, but not productive. I was checking on my nut trees when I saw what it did