Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator, which estimates the current quarter's GDP growth based on a rolling set of economic indicators as they come in, could currently best be described as "rekt".
Discussion
Derailed. Something stopped that train.
Wen print?
Shrekt
rekting ball
I get the feeling we’re in a recession right now, and the current administration is about to face some really tough choices.
Rekt indeed
About 17% of GDP is government spending. Every dollar the DOGE saves is going to push it down more. This is one of the reasons that it's so hard to cut government spending. What you really want to watch is deficit vs GDP. Or maybe GDP ex gov. spending.
I just saw that in Luke report. Crazy
The private market has been in a recession for years now. The only reason we see GDP growth is due to government spending same thing with jobs growth. The spending cuts will show us how the economy is truly doing.
GDP calculations should NOT include government spending at all for the main reason that all government spending is paid for by confiscation through taxation. So you can't, in good faith, add spending to the GDP that was first taken away from it in the first place.
Does this indicate they better start printing more aggressively later this year to avoid recession?
It seems like this was primarily driven by a surge of imports ahead of the new Trump tariffs, right? If that's true, we might expect it to moderate, especially if companies are now overstocked on inventory and need to import much less in the next quarter. Am I thinking about this correctly?
