Fiat price is determined by people buying and selling in the end of the day.
With everyone in the market thinking that will outsmart everyone else, and so much solid past data correlated with the halving, a time shift is expected.
Despite that, I also think you are right, too.
I don't know what I think anymore.
But I'll still stack, I have regretted many times in the past, and I won't regret this anymore.