GM,
At what point do we admit the halving is a meme, the last 3 bull runs were just a coincidence (sample size of 3 doesn't say much) and we all hfsp?
Discussion
Cycle theory is bs. All about global M2 + adoption
gm brother.
yeah,. she's cooked. AUD and CAD are actually great
After one more bull run plz thx
Within 7 months
Hold on we are only supposed to do this on top of a bull run
Everything is a meme
So your thesis is the supply has nothing to do with the fiat price? Good luck sir.
The supply is priced in
That clearly hasn't been the case, as the 3rd halving in a row has follows similar patterns. (We hit roughly 9x from the bottom).
However, even if that were true, then the halving being priced in means the halving and the supply shock does in fact still have effect.
Not only that, in the face of the current rwcession, no real retail, tech layoffs, contracting money, and massive global uncertainty, the price is still stable at roughly 40%-50% higher than the all time 2021 highs.
The forex price of a new global money/asset that only a few million people believe in, is sitting insanely pretty when all other markets and commodities like oil, steel, , fruits, ex gold are heading south.
The chart is clear on the cycle as well if you take away the silly Trump bump:
nbd we already spending most of our lives living in the GM HFSParadise
The supply can't be priced in because there's a liquidity issue. The people buying are limited by cashflow. No one assumed it would inflate by 2% a year forever and suddenly started buying after the halving.
Bitcoin is bought by a lot of people who put all their savings into it and is sold by a lot of miners who need to pay bills now. That's why price goes up after halving.
Fiat price is determined by people buying and selling in the end of the day.
With everyone in the market thinking that will outsmart everyone else, and so much solid past data correlated with the halving, a time shift is expected.
Despite that, I also think you are right, too.
I don't know what I think anymore.
But I'll still stack, I have regretted many times in the past, and I won't regret this anymore.