I wouldn't agree that HODL was wrong. But it's only part of the equation. Spending bitcoin to create a circular bitcoin economy is needed, and it will come. I'm optimistic about that.

Otherwise, I share your assessment. Right now it's looking bad. Too much nonsense and carelessness going on. The game theoretical considerations are still in play though. Nation state adoption opens up opportunities. However, the transition will be incredibly painful. Most bitcoiners underestimate how much. Especially those from the US, I think sometimes, lol.

Bitcoin has made significant progress, but we are far from winning. In fact, I think bitcoin's current success has never been greater, but it has never been more fragile, too. We are at a crossroads and it's hard to even say what the options are.