For every °C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds, fuelling intense storms, particularly over land resulting in more extreme weather events.

Pics from Citrusdal in the Western Cape, South Africa showing severe storm damage resulting in millions of rands in infrastructure damage and crop loses.

The only access road to the town has been washed away and essential supplies for the 5,000 residents is being airlifted.

CO2 concentrations 424 ppm

+1.27°C above preindustrial average

In the near term (2021-2040) the people and animals most at risk of extreme weather events are those who exist:

1) Close to their upper thermal limits

2) Along coastlines

3) Near ice or seasonal rivers

#ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarnings #ExtremeWeather #Citrusdal #SouthAfrica

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Discussion

We saw flood after flood earlier this year in New Zealand. It became clear that things have changed. Thousands of houses were lost.

This is just the beginning.

This is what happens when you replace trees with concrete

So much work has been done on the risk profiles of different places. For example check out the extensive reporting here https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-I.pdf

Of course, in some places the impacts are arriving faster but this gives a good framework if adaptation is a priority, which it should be of course.

I don't understand. This can't be right. If the water vapor increases 7% for a 1C rise, water vapor being a very potent greenhouse gas, that would make the temperature rise at least another 1C, which would bring 7% more water vapor, which would bring another 1C .... which is a runaway situation. If that was true, then it would have runaway long long ago. So something is wrong here, probably with my own assumptions. Can you correct them?

Maybe it's not "at least another 1C". Maybe my ballpark belief about water vapor is off. Or maybe the water vapor increases less than 7%.