Believe when I see it. Just like when will see self-custodial lightning adoption increase 😉
Discussion
What's stopping anyone from using phoenix?
Not because it's complicated
Custodial : self custodial is similar on chain (70:30)
I don’t know maybe because of the UX of opening channels and all those times self-custodial ln txs fail.
99% on nostr are using a ln custodial wallet for a reason. And it’s not due to lack of education it’s down to bad ux.
Making your own lnaddress takes a little learning. Not because self custody has bad ux. I'm using my own node with alby. Voltage makes it easy but the average person does not like even a slight bit of complication. It's still not 99%, something like 85-90%
https://www.austrich.net/self-custodial-zaps-with-nostdress/
I see stories like this all the time.
One of the reasons fiatjaf is pro-drivechain and criticises lightning. he’s been a lightning dev for a few years now 
To me, that seems like a strike and zeus issue. Zeus had a problem connecting to node over tor prior to an update couple of months ago. I had that problem from time to time. Phoenix is a 10× improvement after splicing and ux is same as using on-chain bitcoin wallet
Fiatjaf is not honest about drivechains tradeoffs. Anyone even discussing drivechains before broad SV2 adoption is not a serious person. Even then, STARK verifier offers better tradeoffs (this is possible using covenants)
Discussion and debate is how things get moved forward.
Pushing issues under the carpet is how slow progress is made.
I know nothing about stark so I can’t comment on that.
Drivechains is not worth discussing because without SV2, it has worse trade-offs than even liquid
Liquid is federated sidechain that requires permission to use.
Drivechain is a trustless sidechain and your forgetting drivechain includes bip 301 as well for blind merge mining.
Drivechain is federated and enables mev and no, that doesn't just affect sidechains as it does with stacks blocks now. It distorts miner incentives in ways that threaten censorship resistance
I haven’t dove into this issue but a new report from Bitmex came out about drivechains. They argue that that there are mining centralization risks to them.
This is just incorrect imo.
Miners are profit seeking so if they don’t wish to mine a sidechain block then they lose out on business by miner who will mine the block.
Drivechain includes blind merge mining.
Also, 75% of miners are required for 6 months to steal btc in a sidechain.
One can make the arguement btc mining is already centralised and by allowing for side chains would help making mining more competitive and decentralised.
There’s also projects like stratum 2 are working on making mining less centralised.
Phoenix is not trustless and definitely not private.
https://phoenix.acinq.co/faq#is-phoenix-trustless
https://phoenix.acinq.co/faq#how-private-are-my-payments-on-phoenix