Either way, it’s a major blow to Iran’s nuclear program. And let’s not overlook the royalist factions among the younger generation — they’re just waiting for the right moment to rip the country apart from within.
Discussion
it isn't so much a blow to anything specific as to the notion that Iran is a power in the first place
only days ago nostr:npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35c called Iran a "Grizzly Bear" and it is already looking like just a slightly bigger Gaza or Lebanon
basically Trump called Iran's bluff.
Iran kept warning of "consequences" as Israel was genociding Palestinians and people like nostr:npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35c amplified that message because they wanted to help deter US aggression in the region ...
but Trump doesn't answer to his voters - he answers to Netanyahu and the Epstein Tapes - and Trump knew that Iran will cuck ...
the damage to Iran's image is irreparable. even fanboys like nostr:npub1acg6thl5psv62405rljzkj8spesceyfz2c32udakc2ak0dmvfeyse9p35c will never use words like "Grizzly Bear" to describe it again. regime change becomes much easier when the regime does not command any respect anymore.
sad it has come to this but it was inevitable.
The thing that's strange to me is why they waited so long. They have been sabre-rattling for war with Iran since George W. Bush was in office. If I recall correctly, we were supposed to get involved there by about 2007. But the last 2 years of Bush in office, he did basically nothing and dished the problem off to his successors.
What just happened is almost exactly the scenario that was discussed back in the 2000s: Bunker busters to eliminate the facilities at Natanz, et al. So, I'm not sure what the hold up was? America apparently had the exact capabilities then, and Iran in that time period gained no additional abilities to deter such an attack.
It seems like America was waiting for something but I'm not really sure what. There are theories though that Israel forced this because popular support for Israel is dying in the USA with the decline of the Boomers and Evangelical Christianity (more recent Evangelicals aren't as pro-Israel and actually want to focus on the American economy, illegal immigration, etc). So it's now or never from the perspective of Israel.
But the delay still is puzzling. Wouldn't it just have been better, from a strategic perspective, to do it back then?
not puzzling at all - they were waiting for Syria to fall
they didn't want to attack Iran until i was isolated
Originally I believe the plan was to attack Iran first - that was in the papers they had mapped out back then. At some point they must have decided that Syria (along with other regimes in the Middle East that they didn't trust like Libya) had to fall first. But I think they didn't expect the Assad regime to last more than a decade after a color revolution...
The events leading up to Assad's fall last year do suggest that they were sick of waiting and wanted to fast track the process.
I also think the 2008 crash and related events might have delayed things for a while too, because the Arab Spring wasn't put into motion until 2011.
right - they had an overall vision for the Middle East but they had to adjust the strategy based on developments on the ground
also don't forget that Russia is a key piece of the puzzle in the Middle East as well because for example Iranian foreign minister is Moscow right now for talks with Putin
and of course it seems Assad has been preparing to escape to Russia for a long time before he actually did so. by the time he moved to Russia he already had businesses there apparently etc.
so the developments in Ukraine would also have to be figured into the timeline for the Middle East due to Syria and Iran's cooperation with Russia.
Syria used Russian surface to air missiles and Russia is using Iranian drones and of course Russia was heavily involved in Iran's nuclear program and Israel downed an entire jumbo jet full of Russian Nuclear scientists etc.
Every time something major like that happens they have to re-evaluate their strategy but the vision stays the same.
they knew that the entire middle east hates Israel so their job was to avoid having Israel attacked by all its neighbors at the same time
so they embarked on a long game of toppling those countries one by one leaving the biggest one ( Iran ) for last when everybody else has been toppled
Assad in Syria was allied with Putin and Iran and that presented a problem but they were just recently able to get him to flee to Russia
then Trump recently did a tour of ME and got assurance from all the Arab states that they would cooperate even though Israel was masacring Palestinians
there were also pager attacks and other assassinations in Lebanon recently - another major ally of Iran
they were working to weaken Iran's support in the region to a level they were comfortable with
once they were ready they didn't really wait at all - Rubio said the attack was decided on in March - Trump simply lied about negotiations to confuse Iran