It's the same every cycle.
People are in such disbelief about how bitccoin is currently priced that they cannot foresee where it's headed.
I don't think Bitcoiners are immune to this effect.
Discussion
I see a lot of people saying not to sell ever at all and I don't understand it let's say I buy Bitcoin at 100k it goes up to 180k in a year I take the profit from that and then buy more when it drops back down to 80K - isn't that a more intelligent move especially if you're trying to average down?
I'm genuinely asking the question, why not take profits?
The general consensus is that people who try to time markets get rekt. It's the same reason why you don't buy that course by the expert stock market traders who try to sell you their 'system'.
As a general rule it's ok to 'trim' your position if you have an extremely value use case for those funds in fiat. However that's not what you are saying. You purport to know the future and seem assured that 80k will present itself again. An equally probable scenario is that Bitcoin peaks locally at 200k but only reverts back to 140k and never retests 80k.
Remember Bitcoin is a protocol not a stock. It is a step change functionality improvement in base money on a global scale. I would put it to you that you don't yet fully comprehend what it is that you own.
Your best strategy is to focus on improving your capacity to harvest more fiat to then sweep into BTC for long term savings rather than to 'trade' your way into a bigger stack.
Just my two cents. 👍🏻
Thank you. Yes, I am assuming it would hit that low again - and I would just rather "set it and forget it" but I came to bitcoin both late in price and age - I'm 54.
I see trying to leverage my meager amount as the only path to significant accumulation while I'm still alive or at least actually able to enjoy life.
Poor planning on my part.
Yeah I don't agree with people telling others what to do with their permissionless money. It's hypocritical & intellectually dishonest.
If you've followed the game theory through, you should know Bitcoin has no top. It will keep accruing value while blocks are mined & the total supply is less than 21M.
Historically some have been able to accrue more Bitcoin by selling the "top" & then rebuying the "bottom". Many end up with less Bitcoin but some pull it off. Many missed the top last epoch because the bull run was stifled by the FTX Ponzi collapsing. These people have PTSD over this & the brutal bear market that followed.
The concept of the SuPeRcycLe is that we don't have a bear market this epoch. We just continue to grind up through to the next epoch. I subscribe to this theory & have no intentions of selling more than I need to.
Your Bitcoin is simply your unrealised optionality. Savings that you can deploy to make your life easier or more enjoyable. Nobody can tell you what to do with this optionality. You are the one that wears the cost of spending or hodling your sats.
I generally urge people not to act on their feelings of greed or fear. I've noticed that in Bitcoin this tends to result in outcomes that are unfavorable.
I agree. Appreciate the well reasoned reply.