#Pollstr clear advantage for Trump side now
Discussion
Praise God
How many coin flips would you need inorder to notice that the coin you were flipping was not a 50/50 coin, and instead possessed the probabilities shown above? Something like 52%/48%?
You would need about 100 flips just to get the distributions with enough resolution to distinguish 52/48 from 50/50 and then you would probably need atleast an additional 100 flips for you to be reasonably sure you didn’t have a little bad luck as even a fair coin (50/50) is unlikely to give you exactly a 50/50 split in real flips. And depending on how certain you wanted to be more flips further. This event is going to happen once. Not 100, 200, or more times. “Clear advantage for Trump side”, Is a misreading of the implied probabilities. This is fundamentally a coin flip based on the numbers shown it has about the most uncertainty possible for an event which has only two outcomes.
Tks for all your knowledge of coin flip, but you could ask why i used before saying I'm trying to influence something.
Ain't my intention, this is a prediction market snap, and above 2% (margin of error) is a clear advantage, I've been doing it daily you can back check 🫂💜
I don’t think you’re trying to influence anything, just that people interpret these statistics a bit hazardly something like whoever has the lead of percentage will win. But it’s much more uncertain than that. Yes the fact that trumps number is large does mean that he has an advantage (according to the prediction markets) but it’s incredibly slight.