Getting keener on the idea of buying a very boring business
Implement as much tech as possible and run using AI for bespoke problems
Eg a laundrette
Demand will continue. All you have to do is beat the laundrette around the corner, still run by a boomer, who have implemented no tech
Solid cash flows, higher efficiency, means net profits in theory very strong, and becomes a sat stacking machine
So returns have startups like profile, with radically reduced risk
I've been contemplating the same. I need more cash flow and right now that means my labor
What would an exit strategy look like in 2032?
Maybe you don’t do it to exit
But aim to build a portfolio of hard assets, inflation resistant, and positive cashflow
But then again, one should always build something with a sale in mind
So if that’s the case, it’s all about using BTC as your cornerstone to finance the investment, keep the cagr on your balance sheet, and then aim to outperform the cost of capital
Both the technology optimists and the %99 P doomers have 2032ish locked in as “massively” different socioeconomically wise. Will a laundromat for instance still be relevant enough to make an economic play for?
Great question
I don’t know
That’s what I am trying to figure out
Both you and me!
I have spent a mother truck load of time researching both camps because my wife and I have a retail bricks and mortar store. I have been looking ways to construct an outline of what our local economy looks like in 2030-32. The idea is to work backwards from there for planning purposes. The narratives around the negative economic impacts of AI for the “regular” folk seem to be the dominant ones. I am in New Zealand and I also keep an eye on Australian economic data. I am currently not convinced there are any optimistic indicators to either create, buy or expand a traditional retail business. More importantly, listen to any interview with Roman Yampolskiy re AI safety and the big picture is bleak.
I’d love to see some content around what you’ve been looking at
Always love specific use cases
Why
Why not
Etc
I'm deeply sceptical that you'll outperform bitcoin.
Debt could be a way around this since it's mainly a capital allocation issue.
Bingo
So what if you can get fiat debt against your bitcoin, at say 10% per annum
You bitcoin can crunch away in the background doing 40% cagr
Ofc ensure you can cover any LTV to the downside and avoid margin call
Then you have to be confident that you can return more than your cost of capital (the 10%)
Ones financing is a cost to the business, so can be accounted for, and if one takes a min 4 year view, can you run a profitable business?
If you can, then you cover the cost of capital, and can stack more sats
Yes but you get yourself into bit of a logic loop.
Say you determine that Bitcoin is the best place for your capital & it's going to outperform 10% pa over 5 years.
Why would you borrow to start a business when you could just borrow to buy more Bitcoin?
There's risk in a Bitcoin backed loan, but if you're going that way anyway, why wouldn't you just go harder?
It's an interesting thought experiment.
I've been tempted to start a lawn mowing or gutter cleaning service. It requires a very low initial capital outlay & is labour intensive. Perfect for me.
Window washing is another example.
They're shitty jobs that need to be done. There's also generally little competition if you provide a decent service.
Yeah why not double down on the Bitcoin position
Great question
I personally thing the timing for that is wrong, ie next bear market maybe, but not right now
And it also doesn’t answer the fact that people still need shit done in the physical world
Exactly as you said. Manual jobs still need to be done
Food for thought!
