Bitcoin does not have a compound annual growth rate CAGR. It has an annual rate of return ARR. At it’s core CAGR is a way to describe in one number what happens when you reinvest an interest payment or dividend back into the original principle over many years at different interest rates. Bitcoin does not pay interest so you cannot use the CAGR maths from the fiat investment system to evaluate a return. Bitcoin is a completely different beast.
I’m thinking about what nostr:nprofile1qqsvf646uxlreajhhsv9tms9u6w7nuzeedaqty38z69cpwyhv89ufcqpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejszxrhwden5te0wpex2mtfw4kjuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgj8j7r8 has recently spoken about in regards to the hodler’s dilemma.
This is the choice to either spend your coins to finance living, or not spend your coins and live “less” than you otherwise could. Which is why he released nostr:npub1ex7mdykw786qxvmtuls208uyxmn0hse95rfwsarvfde5yg6wy7jq6qvyt9 Lending (which I’m super excited about)
Interest rates on this lending product appear to be between 9-13%, which seems high compared to traditional lending, but if you’re a hodler, you’re not a traditional investor, so is it expensive for you?
If Bitcoin’s CAGR is between 50-60%, what’s 13% in interest?
Let’s say Bitcoin’s CAGR works its way down to 25-30%. By then, interest rates should settle between 6-9%, but let’s say 9% to stay conservative.
Still a better option than selling, creating a taxable event, and missing out on future appreciation of your Bitcoin. I think an important thing to understand is that this product is for productive individuals. If you work or have a business and can service the debt payments while living below or within your means, this is an amazing product for you.
My husband and I speak about this almost every night. We’ve completed a full tour of duty in Bitcoin (4-year cycle). In the beginning, we thought we would be offloading some to finance a better quality life once we reached this point.
But now we understand that the more we hold off on certain spending and sacrifice to live as minimally as possible now, each year that goes by, we’ll have that much more financial freedom moving forward.
Now with lending, as long as we continue to live profitably, our savings will keep growing exponentially because we won’t need to cut into 5-8% of our stack each year to cover living expenses like we thought we would.
My favorite part about this lending product from Strike, and others who will adopt this framework, is no credit check. That’s a big double bird from us to the system that tried to control us with their BS communist social credit score.
No, we will not play by your nonsensical rules. Proof of work. Bitcoin is a meritocracy. You get opportunities based on your stack and nothing else. And you grow your stack by providing value to society.
Proof of work. So excited for this bright orange future that is really starting to pick up steam.
Discussion
I appreciate your response! I’m so used to meeting my fiat friends where they are so I sometimes default to the fiat terminology.
I think CAGR can still Be useful in backwards measuring bitcoins performance. Of course it doesn’t have cash flow but we can convert the typical cash flow to price appreciation, or at least that’s how I’ve explained it
I think there is a natural reflex to want to reach for a tried and true explanation of how certain types of returns work in order to explain what we see happening in Bitcoin, but unfortunately CAGR actually distorts rather than clarifies what happens with BTC gains. CAGR relies fundamentally on being paid interest on then folding the interest back into the principle. This can only happen if you give your BTC to someone who will pay you interest for the privilege of using it for other things. If all you are talking about is buying and holding your own BTC then you are never paid interest. It’s just my personal opinion but I think it is important to be factually correct when trying to describe bitcoin and how it works. Otherwise you may lead someone down the wrong path and/or make ill informed decisions.