I’m thinking about what nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle has recently spoken about in regards to the hodler’s dilemma.

This is the choice to either spend your coins to finance living, or not spend your coins and live “less” than you otherwise could. Which is why he released nostr:npub1ex7mdykw786qxvmtuls208uyxmn0hse95rfwsarvfde5yg6wy7jq6qvyt9 Lending (which I’m super excited about)

Interest rates on this lending product appear to be between 9-13%, which seems high compared to traditional lending, but if you’re a hodler, you’re not a traditional investor, so is it expensive for you?

If Bitcoin’s CAGR is between 50-60%, what’s 13% in interest?

Let’s say Bitcoin’s CAGR works its way down to 25-30%. By then, interest rates should settle between 6-9%, but let’s say 9% to stay conservative.

Still a better option than selling, creating a taxable event, and missing out on future appreciation of your Bitcoin. I think an important thing to understand is that this product is for productive individuals. If you work or have a business and can service the debt payments while living below or within your means, this is an amazing product for you.

My husband and I speak about this almost every night. We’ve completed a full tour of duty in Bitcoin (4-year cycle). In the beginning, we thought we would be offloading some to finance a better quality life once we reached this point.

But now we understand that the more we hold off on certain spending and sacrifice to live as minimally as possible now, each year that goes by, we’ll have that much more financial freedom moving forward.

Now with lending, as long as we continue to live profitably, our savings will keep growing exponentially because we won’t need to cut into 5-8% of our stack each year to cover living expenses like we thought we would.

My favorite part about this lending product from Strike, and others who will adopt this framework, is no credit check. That’s a big double bird from us to the system that tried to control us with their BS communist social credit score.

No, we will not play by your nonsensical rules. Proof of work. Bitcoin is a meritocracy. You get opportunities based on your stack and nothing else. And you grow your stack by providing value to society.

Proof of work. So excited for this bright orange future that is really starting to pick up steam.

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What?

This might be just normalizing debt in a new way and a possible solution for government having bitcoin reinforce the existing power structures rather than dismantling them.

💯 Bitcoin is the perfect collateral for a lender

just stack sats.

not your keys, not your coins.

the end.

I don’t disagree. But when it comes time to use those sats, I’m leaning towards this route versus departing from them

there's a saying in bitcoin lore:

have fun staying poor

Let me coin a new saying.

If you don’t use your sats, have fun living poor 😆

it's not gonna stick

being poor and having a future can happen at the same time.

Another way to look at this product is a call option on your purchase price if you use your loan to buy more bitcoin. The terms are not what I want them to be yet, but I think Jack and Strike will meet me where I'm at eventually. So if you're a hodler but you responsibly leverage a small portion of your stack to buy more bitcoin; if the price goes down, buy more bitcoin, if the price goes up, pay down the loan.

As of now, I would only consider that move in the 1 red year ( 🟢🟢🟢🔴 meme) lol

As long as these cycles stay in tact that’s a once in 4 year play for me.

Which would seem to be next year 😳

Ideally you over collateralize to withstand a 75% draw down, and have multiples more in cold storage in case of black swan.

Just be careful about taking on leverage towards the end of a bull market ⚠️

💯 best time to take a loan would be as close to the bottom of a bear market as possible

Said otherwise ‘Keep starving until the halving’ 😉

Defaulting on your debt will not be a taxable event? And then you have extra interest to pay plus risk loosing two times or more in btc than what you would spend it when you needed it.

“as long as we continue to live profitably” means earning more than you spend. Now using your whole stack for the loan. No excuse to default unless you’re irresponsible

It’s like fire. Can heat a home or burn it down 🔥

You can end up defaulting for reasons which are not under your control. Number does not always go up.

Thats why people shouldn’t borrow against more than 20% their stack. That allows you to easily cover a margin call plus if you live profitably. You need to earn more than you spend.

Also, what are people taking the loan for? I wouldn’t buy a boat with it. I would invest in my business which increases my cash flow

Everyone needs to make their own decisions but it helps for people to talk about it so they can make well informed decisions.

We can agree to disagree, I’m Cool with that.

Yep. Been running simulations around this. Wife and I started Base Layer Capital LLC to execute it Moved all btc to BLC.

It's dead simple. If you can do loans with no monthly payments and rollovers..like Strike provides. Then the math is simple. Will bitcoin CAGR be higher than your loan APR?

And that's just basics... use the powerless model. Sell when above mid line borrow when below. :)

Yes we really can live on Bitcoin. My wife retires the first of next month.

Love this. My heads spinning from all the simulations we’ve been running 🙃

I like the product. My concern is you have no guarantee of Strike or anyone allowing you to roll over the loan after the ter. Any time you reach term they can close the loan and you’re out that BTC if you don’t have the cash or can’t raise it elsewhere.

Sure, but why would they if you have been a good customer? And competition is already here and more is coming.

There are no absolute guarantees in life. Only risk management.

They would do it because they want or need your collateral more than they want or need your fiat. I’m not suggesting there’s anything deviant in it. They can just decide that they will not roll over any more and only close loans by taking the correct portion of collateral. Then you’re free to deposit more bitcoin to take a new loan of the same value

And so they close it. You move on. I am not suggesting you do this if you have to go above 10% LTV. Ideally less than 2.5% with 10% max.

I do NOT believe this is a valid strategy for people with less than 10 BTC. In 5 years it likely will be available to those with 2-5...

You can also spread the risk across lenders, but I gotta be honest I don't see your scenario playing out. I see a wide open field and companies competing for business. I see an entire new industry springing up to unlock capital locked in Bitcoin. I think we have blue skies for several years to come. IMO of course...and without doubt it introduces counter party risk. Life comes with risk...

I’m a user of the product and agree with your sentiment, them not allowing the rollover is just one of the “what-ifs” I play through in my head

Why move it to an LLC? What is the powerless model? I've been really interested in Jack's product but would like thorough understanding of how it works and how to execute it properly. Do you have any resources you could share?

An LLC can deduct the loan interest while an individual can't. An LLC also protects it from personal liability.

There are many benefits to the LLC route. My honest advice is spend a few hours brainstorming with GPT. You will have questions as you learn and it will provide answers... just check it all before you start executing!!!

Good to have more options, but people are better off taking a second mortgage or using income products like MSTY if they are borrowing to upgrade their lives, which relies on Bitcoin appreciation in the short term given the duration of the loan. Not to mention the higher interest rate and stress from managing the LTV.

Ehh nothing against saylor, I respect him greatly but I’m skeptical of the MSTY model. I want to see it survive a 4 year cycle and see how it performs in the bear.

Even if it survives, those shares are still in the old system which I am strongly opposed to. You don’t truly own them

With Bitcoin, we own that asset. I can send those coins to nostr:npub1cn4t4cd78nm900qc2hhqte5aa8c9njm6qkfzw95tszufwcwtcnsq7g3vle & nostr:npub1ex7mdykw786qxvmtuls208uyxmn0hse95rfwsarvfde5yg6wy7jq6qvyt9 whenever I want and get my fiat. I don’t need to rely on a traditional brokerage that may or may not let me access my shares.

Jack took bitcoin to Wall Street not the other way around. This is a Bitcoin native option which provides us bitcoiners the opportunity to play in the financial games the wealthy has access to without forcing us to play their game which is built on fiat

The MSTY model is nothing new. People have been generating income selling covered calls for a long time. The uncertainty lies on whether or not MSTR can remain liquid and volatile over time.

If you’re giving up control of your keys and taking fiat in exchange, is that much different than owning shares of MSTY from a sovereignty person? I would say it’s a difference without a distinction.

You’re still trusting a regulated third party. If you like Strike more than say Fidelity that’s fine, but if the government comes knocking both of them are going to comply.

No beef with Jack and appreciate what he built, but we are dealing with the fiat system in both scenarios. What Strike allows, which has been offered by Ledn for years is just a bridge to tradfi. You’re giving up control of your keys and dealing with third parties. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. But now people can choose to trust Strike instead of Fidelity.

Perspective*

There are some advantages in that you get to avoid cap gains, but that comes at the expense of the high interest and short duration loan. People need to be prudent on when they borrow and how much.

So you pay taxes on your bitcoin and you are comfortable with counterparty risk? Why did you get into bitcoin?

Who’s paying taxes on their bitcoin

Bitcoin does not have a compound annual growth rate CAGR. It has an annual rate of return ARR. At it’s core CAGR is a way to describe in one number what happens when you reinvest an interest payment or dividend back into the original principle over many years at different interest rates. Bitcoin does not pay interest so you cannot use the CAGR maths from the fiat investment system to evaluate a return. Bitcoin is a completely different beast.

I appreciate your response! I’m so used to meeting my fiat friends where they are so I sometimes default to the fiat terminology.

I think CAGR can still Be useful in backwards measuring bitcoins performance. Of course it doesn’t have cash flow but we can convert the typical cash flow to price appreciation, or at least that’s how I’ve explained it

I think there is a natural reflex to want to reach for a tried and true explanation of how certain types of returns work in order to explain what we see happening in Bitcoin, but unfortunately CAGR actually distorts rather than clarifies what happens with BTC gains. CAGR relies fundamentally on being paid interest on then folding the interest back into the principle. This can only happen if you give your BTC to someone who will pay you interest for the privilege of using it for other things. If all you are talking about is buying and holding your own BTC then you are never paid interest. It’s just my personal opinion but I think it is important to be factually correct when trying to describe bitcoin and how it works. Otherwise you may lead someone down the wrong path and/or make ill informed decisions.

One comment, four points.

Strike offering sounds promising.

1. What happens to the your collateralised BTC if Strike goes bust - you have the fiat but not the BTC?

2. What happens if the Government has a change of mind and forces Strike to freeze your BTC collateral?

3. Do you pay your loan back in BTC? Thus if you take a 1BTC loan at USD 100,000 and then pay back 1 BTC at USD 200,000 - who is better off?

4. Is the collateral held in mutt-sig wallet where Strike and you have a key and must agree to settle the loan by using your keys.

I’ll be watching the developments with great interest.

Awful expensive, awful risky for a high volatility asset (if you are not 100% careful)... Just stack sats and remember to only owe money if it is for productive purposes (that allow for more BTC buys&hodl)

Great questions

Yes, you still play by nonsensical rules! You give your Bitcoin away and do KYC, all just to get the fiat... which you so much hate.

Yea I hear ya. What’s your preferred method in getting use out of your bitcoin?

You do you. I just thought it was kinda funny Jack talking in the beginning of the presentation about how we are in a debt based financial system and his product offers you to go into debt...

I believe his main point was collateralized debt versus uncollateralized debt

Good debt vs bad debt

CC debt vs leveraging your assets to accumulate more wealth which has been proven time after time to work when done intelligently

I don't really have a clue or spent a lot of time thinking about debt. For me it just always felt wrong to be in debt. Thanks for pointing out that there are different forms of debt. There might be a place for ÂŤgood debtÂť.

I'm not convinced by this method. I am sorry

That’s alright!

Great as long as you don’t get liquidated and the lender doesn’t blow up and take your coins.

You must be smart when using a product like this and the coins must be insured.

The responses to this product are wild, especially from Nostriches!

I can't tell if these are Russian bots, or people just too engrained in the fiat middle class mindset to evaluate BTC lending properly, from first principles.

My only complaint about it is that I can't use it in California yet. At least not until..... (looking at you nostr:npub1ex7mdykw786qxvmtuls208uyxmn0hse95rfwsarvfde5yg6wy7jq6qvyt9)

Right?!? Like what good is the wealth generated from Bitcoin if you can’t use it

Bad, bad advice. There's never any good in interest. Allah has forbidden interest but allowed trade.

First, you stack Sats for a year or two, then you start spending a certain percentage of it each year. You’ll still have enough left over. “Enough” is the key word here, not the mathematical optimum. If you're chasing the mathematical optimum, there are other, more ruthless ways to do that, but that's not the point here.

https://bitcoincompounding.com/

This is the cleaner approach.