Nostr Web Client

Thank you for your test. At this point in time I am not accepting zaps thus my Lightning Address is not associated with my Nostr account. This may change in the future as I develop what I would like to post on a regular basis (and also Nostr develops a wider acceptance.

HoylesPattern 4mo ago 💬 2

Bitcoin - Next Stop USD 128k to $130k

#bitcoin #money #economy

The wheels are turning after the latest Executive Order in the US which opens 401k’s to digital assets through ETFs and the like.

We seem to have an early July 25 pattern forming that saw a USD 16k jump in the BTC price. Accordingly, this could lead to USD 128k - 130k top and then a pull bak to USD 120k as the price consolidates again.

Whereas I am sure we all hope for peace in Ukraine/Russia and the Middle East, I do not hold much star on the Trump/Putin meeting in Alaska. This may mark a turning point in the BTC climb as the world re-assesses risk and may see a move back to traditional assets such as #gold

Replying to

StackSats.IO

You think XRP which has a company, and a CEO who just constantly dumps tokens on the market to extract wealth from his moron userbase, is different? 🤣

XRP is being evaluated in. A purely commercial sense. Like stock. Also note the operative word was ‘may’

Replying to

Orange Pilled Dictator

I run a full node now, thanks to nostr:nprofile1qqswum4p82uluhz2dr40nvdrflspffntgqghc58w9fs57nx6jkdkuaqpzemhxw309aehgunfvd5zumr0vdskcw358q6rsqgkwaehxw309aex2mrp0yhxummnw3ezucnpdejq58ldqr. It's a really cool feeling. More business updates to come. #bitcoin

HoylesPattern 4mo ago 💬 1

Great stuff - now look into a small miner - partly for fun BUT it distributes the mining power more widely than a few concentrated operators that could be shut down at any time.

Replying to

Kpu3

I know $strc can’t guarantee 9%, but it is trying to be %9 like a money market tries hard to give 4 right? Like if Bitcoin still cycles down 30%, Saylor is likely going to still pay out the $strc 9% barring other issues right?

In that way, if I am saving for an expense 2-3 years out… $strc is a good option?

I’m already allocated to $BTC and need less drawdown for this stored value at this time. Thank you.

#Bitcoin #MSTR #STRC #STRK #BitcoinFinance #Nostr #bitcoindollar

I assume this is “tongue in cheek” comment about $strc.

$strc seems like putting your money in a bank with thousands of others and leaving it there untouched while the bank has expenses greater than income which it funds from your money and others plus it pays you interest.

That’s a bad ending about to happen and one of the reasons the Strategy investor has Perpetuals with no maturity date - stops the bank run.

Replying to

Lyn Alden

Strategy had their earnings call today and I was one of the analysts able to participate in the Q&A with the executive team.

Although most people are focused on bull market stuff, I decided to aim my question more toward bear market scenarios and stress testing.

Here's the transcript for that portion if you're interested:

________

Lyn Alden, Research Analyst: So, thank you for the opportunity. So, Strategy navigated the 2022 bear market successfully. And so my question is going to relate to stress testing as it relates to these mid-term BTC ratings. Given that Strategy’s credit products are backed more by assets and capital access than operating cash flows, are there certain bitcoin bear market assumptions or thresholds, either such as in terms of drawdown magnitudes or lengths of time where capital markets might become inconducive for new capital issuance, that you’re planning for as you design these forward leverage ratios, and for your overall capital structure? Thank you.

Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman, Strategy: You know, I think that if we if we equitize the convertible bonds and we go to all preferreds, you can imagine, for example, you have a $100 billion of Bitcoin. You have $50 billion of preferred in an extreme like, the extreme case of 50% leverage case. And if that $50 billion was a debt liability coming due in three years, that would be a lot of risk. And if it was a debt liability coming due in twenty five years, it’d be less risk, but it’ll still be something. But if it’s an if it’s actually equity, if if it’s $50 billion preferred equity, it never comes due.

And so now you have a different kind of risk. In that particular case, Bitcoin can draw down 80%, and you’re fine. It can draw down 90%. So I actually think if you look at our our structure, as we migrate to preferreds, we end up with this clock, you know, very, very robust antifragile capital structure where the principal never comes due. And then you have to ask the question, well, where is the liability?

And the liability is in the dividend. You notice when Andrew showed the the liabilities, he showed you three tranches. He showed you the interest liability, the cumulative liabilities, and the noncumulative liabilities. That’s because the interest has gotta be paid or you’re in default. The cumulative doesn’t have to be paid, but if you don’t if you suspended, it accumulates, so it’s still a liability.

And then the noncumulative, you could suspend it, and it isn’t a liability. So when you add all that up, you know, you you imagine that you’ve got $50,000,000,000 and you have even if you had a 10% dividend, that means you’re down to $5 billion. So on a $100 billion of assets, you’ve got $5,000,000,000 of dividend liabilities, but some of them are more collapsible than others of them. But so you say to yourself, well, what happens if Bitcoin falls 95%? You’d still make you’d still meet those liabilities most likely.

You you might in you know, you might in a 95% drawdown, you might suspend something. But you can see, you know, for the most part, no one really contemplates, you know, more than the 80% extreme craze case of the crypto well, I guess the crypto winter is, like, 75% or something. You would know. $66,000 to 16,000, I guess, was, like, the peak to trough. Call it 80%.

I think that our structure is is smooth, and we wouldn’t miss a single dividend payment on an 80% drawdown. On a 90% to 95% drawdown, in theory, you might suspend something for a little bit of time, but you would eventually get back current on it. So, you know, so I think in terms of robustness, it’s it’s pretty robust. And if you compare it to the fragility of a credit conventional bank, you know, we’re think about the leverage we’ve got in order to generate our earnings. We’ve got maybe 1.2 leverage.

Typical banks got ten, twenty x leverage to get their earnings. So this model is is orders of magnitude less less risky than a conventional banking model. Phong, Andrew, do you guys have anything to add on that?

Phong Le, President & Chief Executive Officer, Strategy: I can add, Lyn. We we we we’ve had the benefit of being a Bitcoin treasury company for five years. We went through a crypto winter in 2022 with a much more fragile debt structure and capital structure. We had a Silvergate margin loan, that was Bitcoin backed. We had a secured note that had onerous, you know, clauses, and and and so, we learned a lot from that.

You know? And and at that point in time, our most pristine debt were our convertible notes. And now I think we’re much more prepared for a Bitcoin drawdown because over time, we won’t have we already don’t have, secured notes. We don’t have a margin loan. Over time, we may not have convertible notes.

And to Mike’s point, we we will be relying on perpetual preferred notes that don’t ever, come due. So, I think we learned a lot, during this period of time, and and we hope to to share that with everybody out there.

Lyn Alden, Research Analyst: Thank you.

Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman, Strategy: And, of course, the point is we did survive the 80% drawdown with a much weaker capital structure. So, so this capital structure is is bulletproof compared to that one. So, so I think we’re good to 90%. And if it goes below 90%, then we’ll shuffle a few things around. It’ll be colorful.

“Perpetual secured notes that never fall due” - where have I heard that before? Ah the Gold Certificates held by the Federal Reserve. Issued by the US Government.

Replying to

StackSats.IO

Just spitballing here, haven’t fully thought this through.

But what if the bubble this time isn’t BTC Treasury Companies, but rather, Shitcoin Treasury Companies..

People trying to outperform BTC might be attracted to them starting from a lower base, thinking they can get outsized gains. So the Robinhood gambling-type leverage goes there.

These entities aren’t holding BTC though, so when they run into problems they don’t have #Bitcoin to dump and flood the market with; just their illiquid shitcoins.

Is it possible for Crypto to implode and Bitcoin to continue on unaffected? 🤔

HoylesPattern 4mo ago 💬 1

The short answer is YES - definitely YES. Except for a few spinoffs from Bitcoin (BCH, DASH and I think LTC) most other cryptos are a business product designed to make money for their creators. I have yet to see another crypto that has the attributes of BTC, serving a use other than money, eg. AI, tokenised assets, etc. XRP may be an exception as it stands to replace or form the backbone of systems like SWIFT (for money transfers).

Australia’s Inflation about to soar

#inflation #costofliving #costofliving #economy #money #gold #bitcoin

Well it only took a month after the. May 25 Australian Federal Government elections and the M3 Money Supply has jumped from 5.96% YoY to 6.77% YoY (as at the end of June 25). Expect a bigger jump next month.

The growth in money supply directly affects prices in an inflationary manner - that’s why most western governments print money like crazy to pump a slowing economy. In doing so governments debase your money. Based on Australian M3 growth your AUD one dollar will only buy AUD 93 cents of goods compared to a year ago. By 2030 at this rate it will be AUD 72 cents.

The growth in M3 and debasement of your money really only affects the first recipients of the new money. Subsequent recipients effectively receive less value as the first recipients have caused demand-driven price increases - known as the Cantillon Effect.

If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduces interest rates in August 25 - expect the flow on effect to be significant encouraging more borrowing and spending driving up prices. Michelle Bullock, as the face of the RBA has been steadfast in moving slowly (very good), but I believe external pressures will result in a rate reduction in August. How much? Unless they step away from 25 basis point moves my bets are marginally on a 50 point reduction.

Gold continues to show the underlying real debasement of 38.8% pa movement. So if you think your cost of living in some areas has gone up 20+ or 30+ percent then you are probably correct.

Bitcoin Recovers - slowly

#bitcoin #money

Bitcoin, after gradually declining to sub USD112k is gradually climbing back, indicating, on 6 Aug 25, its first higher low and higher top since early July 25 (not yet charted). The top remains marginal, only being about USD 20 above that achieved on 4 Aug 25. Given the pricing scale (100k ranges) comparatively for a USD 1 stock this would be seen as a double top. Accordingly, if the high for 7 Aug 25 does not exceed the 6 Aug 25 top we could see a pull back to USD 109.7k in the next few days.

Keep your powder dry … if you got in with the USD 111k - 112k opportunity, great, if not you may want to wait or consider only a small investment at the current price level.

Replying to

Learn About Bit

That’s a pretty large amount to be removed in a day. 450 entered the circulating supply… bullish

Compared to what was dropped on the market via Galaxy Digital recently (80,000 BTC) it is still small. The 80,000 BTC only moved the ticker down USD 4k. So 80,000 BTC IN from an inactive wallet and 23,000 OUT. Liquidity is still up.

This shows that the BTC market is maturing and will become even more resilient to these actions.

Replying to

Peter Sweat

Literally could not care less about the #bitcoin price chart hour to hour. I buy the exact same amount on a rotating schedule without paying attention. If it's momentarily down, I win. If it's rising, I win. Simple cost averaging. People overcomplicate these things.

Maybe they do - but I buy most things I need when on special - over many years this adds up.

As the saying goes “ Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves”.

This is lost on most younger people today as many have lived in a world of plenty and instant gratification built by their forebears.

Replying to

Peter Sweat

I personally know someone who recently went to buy a car at a local dealership. She picked out a car and told the salesman she'll take it. He starts preparing the loan documents. She says no thanks, I'll pay in full now...no loan.

He was pissed and acted like he didn't even want the sale. He was SELLING THE LOAN. I wonder how much more they make from the financing. I will look this up and find out. If anyone knows, let me know.

This was a brand new vehicle. They are selling debt slavery.

#nostr #finance #debt #btc

Duh! They’ve been doing this for decades. Their money is not made by selling cards but through finance, optional extras, car protection, servicing at the dealership. Extended warranties now being offered are quite often tied to dealership servicing and not actually related to the quality and reliability of the vehicle (which is implied by the manufacturer providing long warranties).

Replying to

Learn About Bit

23,005 Bitcoin removed from exchanges in the past 24 hours (Coinglass)… 👀

Bullish.

#bitcoin

Not really - just a drop in the ocean.

Replying to

WestAfricaHodl

I dislike pricing bitcoin in $

1 sats = 1 sats

1 btc = 1 btc

#btc #bitcoin

I agree. Real money has value in itself.

#btc #btc #bitcoin #money

I see Bitcoin in the same light as when I travel to another country - say Japan. When I see a product to buy, like a cup of coffee, I do a mental calculation between my base fiat currency and Japanese Yen, then decide if it is expensive, reasonable price or cheap. In some case I may not buy based on this conversion.

So I only look at Bitcoin / USD as an exchange rate.

My preferred currency, Bitcoin, is improving in value each day!!! I have to use less and less sats to buy real life goods, like food, etc.

Replying to

BTC Frame

The Mayer Multiple stands at 1.19, hinting at a potential buying opportunity. Historically, anything below 2.4 has been a sweet spot. Keep an eye on the trend and remember, patience is a virtue in the world of Bitcoin. 📈🧐

?v=1753806813

Fascinating. Bitcoin last went above 2.4 in early 2021 and has rarely gone anywhere near the magical 2.4 in its life.

Accordingly, Bitcoin has been in the sweet spot most of its life - which may actually be the case as it continues to climb to reach its price maturity.

1.19 is nothing special, given it was sub 1.0 in March 25.

Notwithstanding, Bitcoin is indicating a downward trend after its most recent jump. So I agree be patient and be prepared for a lower price - especially when the US revalues gold:-) (a trigger not pulled since 1973).

Replying to

Peter McCormack

Sorry, I don't use Primal much apart from posting podcasts but I thought I would share some of the work we are doing here trying to fix Bedford.

Beyond starting a football club and owning local businesses, I have become active in trying to fix the endless issues in the town.

We have economic issues, in that businesses are under pressure from the economic climate as well as growing government red tape. This is being compounded by a massive rise in anti-social behaviour. We have a plague of addiction issues, with large numbers of crackheads, alcoholics and shoplifters in the town. We have a rise in crime, including assaults on women.

This is not a good situation.

Two months ago I threatened the police, that if they did not fix the issue then I will. During August I am funding a private security initiative in the town, where 10 security guards will be deployed across the town as scarecrows, providing a security blanket for residents and businesses.

We have met with the local police and our activity will be coordinated with them. We are also trying to work with the local council too. I am considering establishing a shadow council in the town, outside of party politics, driving civic action.

Alongside the private security, we are building teams for cleaning, events and marketing to drive economic activity in the town.

I just thought I would share this. Bitcoin world has become a little stale to me, it is time to get out there and do things. The UK is pretty fucked at the moment so it is fight or flight time.

Wish you the best in your endeavours.

I expect, if your council is much like other Local Government Authorities worldwide, they will just debate the matter to death ardor put in place processes and procedures that make things harder for the good people of Bedford.

Sounds much like a “Bank of Dave” challenge.

Glad I emigrated many years ago.

Another Sad day for Medicine in Oz!!

#doctor #health #ahpra #ahpra #vcat #vcat #medicine

The Medical Board suspended Dr Jereth Kok back in August 2019 after complaints about social media posts concerning LGBQTI+ and similar matters that did not meet with his Christian views and breached the Code of Ethics on a number of matters.

Admittedly VCAT only looked at the complaints and compared them to the law, as written.

In doing so, once again, regulatory authorities have chased possibly another good practitioner away from providing medical care to Australians. Dr Kok has stated that he does not refuse to provide his services to anyone (my choice of words).

Government and regulators continue to step beyond the bounds of what is medicine and apply standards that are outside their area of expertise and authority (any authority assumed is one they have bestowed upon themselves).

What needs to be done is to change the regulations and let our good and really good medical practitioners to work with patients and agree on a way forward that best meets their medical needs - even if it is outside accepted norms. If we don’t we will literally stay in the age of “blood letting” in Australia.

We have lost, what is probably a good doctor, putting him in the c order for six years and maybe many more.

I expect like Dr Charlie Teo he will look elsewhere and Australia will be worse off.

Is your government really looking after you or running a “protection racket” for the select few?

Bitcoin Resilient with big sell!!!

#bitcoin #money #crypto-currency

Bitcoin shows resilience to Galaxy Digital sale of approximately 9 months mining production of BTC in a few days.

Prices dropped by about 4% as the market consumed the released BTC.

This market action and results indicates a maturing product, which will require a lot of selling pressure to bring the price down significantly in the future.

Admittedly, the total sale was only about 0.065% of world BTC supply BUT that represents the equivalent of 16.72 trillion of the World’s estimated money supply expressed in USD (or about 50% of the US Government debt).

Replying to

HoylesPattern

Scam Crypto Coindrop

#crypto #scam #xrp #xrp #ripple #ledger #coindrop

I’m interested in community feedback on the following.

I have noticed recently that some of my wallets are receiving very small coin drops of crypto (FREE - Yeah!!); however, the wallet I am using (Ledger - soon to be decommissioned) is also charging a fee greater than the coin drop amount.

So the net result is my balance decreases marginally each time - we are talking less than $0.01 - but it annoying.

My questions are:

1. Can it be stopped - as the address is on the blockchain - zeroing the wallet and starting another seems possible but I suspect it is like trying to avoid SPAM e-mail by changing e-mail addresses.

2. Is there another method where a wallet can reject certain incoming transactions.

The crypto concerned is XRP (Ripple).

BTW I am giving up on Ledger after many years due to its closed source code and more modern alternatives where I do not need a magnifying glass to read the small screen (Yes. I know there is Ledger Flex - more like a phone).

Update on above!

Figured it out - Tx Fee being reported was not affecting my balance only reflecting the cost of sending paid by the sender.

NOT A SCAM …

Scam Crypto Coindrop

#crypto #scam #xrp #xrp #ripple #ledger #coindrop

I’m interested in community feedback on the following.

I have noticed recently that some of my wallets are receiving very small coin drops of crypto (FREE - Yeah!!); however, the wallet I am using (Ledger - soon to be decommissioned) is also charging a fee greater than the coin drop amount.

So the net result is my balance decreases marginally each time - we are talking less than $0.01 - but it annoying.

My questions are:

1. Can it be stopped - as the address is on the blockchain - zeroing the wallet and starting another seems possible but I suspect it is like trying to avoid SPAM e-mail by changing e-mail addresses.

2. Is there another method where a wallet can reject certain incoming transactions.

The crypto concerned is XRP (Ripple).

BTW I am giving up on Ledger after many years due to its closed source code and more modern alternatives where I do not need a magnifying glass to read the small screen (Yes. I know there is Ledger Flex - more like a phone).

Apologies …

#bitcoin #moneysupply

My apologies for the image in my last post - rather blurred. New one attached.

Bitcoin update - as I see it

#bitcoin #moneysupply

Just short note today … keep your powder dry if you are looking to enter the BTC market or stack more.

A quick analysis of the recent two bumps in BTC indicates that the first was probably triggered by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 40% (BTC pricing also being at sub USD 100k).

The second times well with the End of Financial Year for many countries (30 June), where investor exit losing positions to realise tax losses. At that point the Global Net Liquidity jumped some USD 300 trillion within 48hrs. Starting on 1 July that money had to find a new home - Bitcoin was one place plus other more traditional investments. The Global Net Liquidity has now gone (plus some).

What’s the bottom line … IMHO I expect the BTC price to slowly pull back. Expecting a revisit to USD 115k and (maybe hoping) for closer to USD 110k.