Oops! - I should have bought.

#bitcoin #money

Well for now the market for BTC seems to have moved on and up. Any regrets about not buying at USD 100k to 105k should be put aside. This moment reminds me of Sonny in the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel who says “Everything will be all right in the end... if it's not all right then it's not yet the end.” So if you think it is not alright that you did not buy then its not the end of this rally.

Coming back to earth IMHO I expect BTC to fall back to the USD 115k - 116k range in the next few days, which may be a chance to rectify missed buying opportunities.

The past four pumps since April 25 have shown that generally there is a pull back of up to 40% of the previous increase. The market then either stabilises or chooses to move higher. The recent top of USD 123k plus change, if taken as the top for now, indicates the future buying price.

I do note that this recent increase in the BTC price in USD terms is higher than in the past and possibly related to flow on effects of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill which is inflationary and will flow through to multiple asset classes. Accordingly, any pull back may be larger than in the past. Personally, I will be shooting at USD 110k for orders in the market but will be ready to move on USD 115k range if the pull-back reverses.

Funny Maths!

#crypto #wisdom #truth #math #marketcap #marketcap #price #bitcoin

Truth lies in using realistic figures. Median house prices for most people in western countries are more likely USD 500k to 650k.

In 2016 I was buying Bitcoin for around USD 600 to 700. Thus in 9 years it has multiplied by 150 times approx.

Overall its rate of growth against asset classes is far more significant than any other asset and certainly better than the rate most western fiat currencies are being debased.

Further, as many believe, as the debasement of fiat continues at an ever alarming pace we will see several things:

1. A flight to safe assets such as #gold and #bitcoin

2. A desire to spend fiat on anything as fast as people can to avoid holding fiat.

3. A drop in real estate values (and the stock market) as people exit assets they do not immediately need - maybe they will keep their family home (but financial pressures may force these onto the market). Look at what has happened in Shanghai as a recent example (other factors noted).

So we can expect further jumps in safe asset (fiat) prices compared to other assets.

Accordingly, 0.5BTC houses is quite realistic.

Literally possible and already proven with 2016 house prices being around 1,500 BTC compared to 6-7 BTC now!

Gold failing on several fronts!

#gold #forex #money #economy #inflation

My last post on 28 Jun 25 indicated that a return to higher prices was likely to be indicated at USD 3,415, with USD 3,375 being a critical point. Well I was out 1 buck and change as #gold turned down around USD 3,376.

Although the pull back is no real concern for long term holders it may be for those seeking to make a quick profit.

I now see two factors in play at the US level being the continued decline of the USD against other currencies and the recent “Big Beautiful Bill” that will throw more money at the stock market (and away from other investments). This “fix” will be relatively short-lived in the overall scheme of things but will push down the USD #gold price.

Australians face a double edged sword with a currency strengthening against the USD (although technically weakening overall) plus the recent Reserve Bank decision to hold interest rates, making the AUD slightly more attractive to others pushing up its comparative value to the USD.

Price predictions? Sorry nothing to offer USD wise, except lower highs and lower lows. Aussies may even get the opportunity to buy at spot plus commissions below AUD 5,000.

See latest Gold Daily Gann Swing below.

Gold Pullback - Too Fast, Too Hard

#gold #forex #money #economy #inflation #devaluation

As indicated in my 24 Jun post #gold pulled back to the USD 3,250 level. In Australia this was exacerbated by the increasing strength of the AUD against USD seeing #gold spot run slightly under AUD 5,000.

Sidenote … the AUD, which in my opinion is also weakening, increasing against the USD, suggest that the present US Administration is managing to weaken the USD against other currencies. I believe this was, and remains, the intention of the new administration. An interesting scenario of slowly devaluing a currency (USD) while it is also being debased within the country.

Turning back to #gold , although offering a buying opportunity the pullback was too hard and too fast so I expect a corrective upwards swing to appear within a few days.

Good buying now - confirmation of a return to upward movement is likely at USD 3,415 with initial positive signs after USD 3,375.

EOFY (30 Jun) for a lot of countries - happy new financial year.

Busy time for many in the financial industry.

#eofy

Bitcoin shows positive UPWARD signs!

#bitcoin #gold #money #equities

After a relatively weak period Bitcoin is now showing clearer signals of moving higher. Both Gann charts and momentum charts indicate a “desire” to move away from USD 107k. I am more positive than I have been for many weeks - although I still keep orders in the market for USD 100k and USD 93k ranges.

Fiat #money seems to be moving out of #gold with some of the Middle East tensions easing. I would suggest that this moneys is feeding back into the #equities and #crypto including #altcoins #altcoins.

I assume that is v30 which allows higher size OP_RETURN blocks. I’ll stick with Bitcoin Knots.

I think we are all trying to find the right balance and sometimes in doing so we swing too hard in one direction or another. When the swings become severe we see a major breakdown in society, etc but we also see major change (sometimes for the better but also sometimes for the worse).

Have a great day

Yes, I would agree. Our systems are far more complex than many can comprehend.

Thanks for your response on #capitalism .

You correctly note “capitalist(s) use the State and seek to buy politicians”.

I think this is a somewhat “chicken and the egg” situation, ie did business create the environment or #government - I suspect both. Regrettably, those with a capitalist mindset have chosen to adapt to the environment in which they operate in a similar way that a business looking for finance to expand may choose to chase a Venture Capital business if it offered maybe the path of least resistance.

The effect of going to Government is devastating as it cements and ultimately increases the power of Government and causes businesses to follow that path more earnestly.

Philosophically I look at the writings of Ayn Rand (fiction) and the characters running businesses which do not care for whatever the Government may offer or say. I am not sure if I could point to a modern day equivalent. Nor would I say do I agree absolutely with Ayn Rand.

Certainly thought provoking and I respect your views on the matter. Certainly by following you.

You ask an interesting question which I believe few, including myself, would be able to answer. I am happy to share some of my thoughts.

My first thought is that for many years, before its return to China, Hong Kong could be considered a s a relatively free and capitalist market. HK was a place where exceedingly rich and poverty stricken poor (sic the Walled City) lived. I would suggest that many of the poor had escaped the communist Chinese regime and somewhat like a new migrant to a country were starting at the bottom. Differing skills sets can also mean that an individual sits at different levels within the social strata. I know of one instance where a Chinese woman escaped communist China, she was bright and managed to get herself into a US University to study science then returned to HK and built her own business - only small but it ensured her family lived a comfortable life. The HK environment allowed this but others would not. It is also worth looking at the last few years of HK as a British “colony” - it became a rat race as each person tried to “make enough money” to escape the impending return to China. Capitalism allowed this but the impetus was I believe something worse.

My second thought is that in the west where many believe they are free and living in a capitalist economy, we are essentially progressing towards an ever increasing degree of socialism, with government control around every corner and a population that is in one form or another paying up to 50% tax to its government so that it can address amongst other things social issues. Many, if not all social programmes are complete failures. As an alternative I would suggest that many people are good and, if not taxed so heavily and allowed to build their businesses without restrictions, they would be more philanthropic and willing to share with others who have not fared so well. I do not condone helping those who will not help themselves - as distinct from those through real circumstances need a hand up instead of a hand-out.

For myself, if the term is capitalism then I vote for it. To me this means minimal government, laissez faire economics, a stable currency such as #bitcoin or even #gold. Stop taxing me, stop regulating me, stop the “nanny state”.

Maybe not the answer you were looking for but I am sure there are many brighter people than me out there that can provide a better answer.

Government Rhetoric on Inflation Hides Truth!

#australia #inflation #cpi #money #gołd

Successive Australian Government’s (Liberal and Labor) rhetoric on inflation continues to hide the truth. In Australia the Consumer Price Index (CPI)(PCE in US) is used interchangeably to be the measure of inflation used by Government and its central bank (Reserve Bank of Australia). The March 25 year on year (YoY) movement came in at 2.4% growth.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)…

The CPI comprises a basket of goods which is frequently changed and many would argue excludes some critical (household) cost components.

Real Inflation …

Real inflation comes from a growth in money supply. Broad Money (M3 in Australia - M2 elsewhere) grew by 5.84% for the 12 months ended April 25 - significantly higher than the touted inflation rate. In the writers opinion, a growth in money supply actually leads to inflation higher than the M3 growth.

If we assumed that #gold is closer to real and stable money then its growth compared to the Australian dollar indicates that for the 12 months ended 22 June 25 Australia’s True Inflation was nearly 37% pa. I think many Australians trying to pay their way would acknowledge that prices are generally rising greater than 5.84% and some would guess maybe 20% plus. They are right!!!

Interest Rates …

Should interest rates be lowered? As much as it pains me to say this - it is not justified and if Australia goes down that track we will have to reverse quite quickly within two years. People who have jumped into the property market on the basis of lower interest rates risk being blind-sided in the near future.

See below a graph of Money Supply, Gold Movements (against AUD) and moving averages of gold movements on 26 week and 52 week bases.

Gold Sending Differing Short Term Signals

#gold #silver

Most individuals “stacking” #gold and #silver are not unduly concerned about short term market signals as their underlying holdings tend to stay in place for years at a time. At times, however, re-entry into the market for buying or selling is necessary.

Presently #gold is sending conflicting signals which I believe is primarily related to the Middle East crisis - will the truce hold or not? I do not intend to enter into any discussion on the Israel/Iran situation except to say any war is a sad situation for most people in the affected area whether you are called to fight or not. Personally, I pray that all people in the region may be able to return to a peaceful and safe life.

Turning back to #gold it is presently indicating a continued upward trend; however, in the immediate term I expect it to make a lower top than that achieved on 17 Jun 25 - if the present ME ceasefire holds. This could open up buying opportunities at a low of USD 3,250 (plus commissions) per t/oz before the end of June 25. Australian buyers continue to deal with FOREX issues but could see buying as low as spot AUD 5,000 to 5,050 (plus commissions).

Sitting in the background is the risk of the ME ceasefire failing which will see an immediate turn around of gold to the up side.

Daily Gann Swing below.

Bitcoin - bumpy ride down for now!

#bitcoin

Good buying opportunities are now developing for Bitcoin investors. Having hit the USD 100k range its overall focus remains around USD 103k. I expect a climb back to USD 105k area and then a fall, maybe progressively to USD 93k which I believe will be the next buying opportunity. IMHO I think #bitcoin is unlikely to breach USD 90k as the currency continues to show more overall stability than #fiat and other #crypto alternatives.

World affairs seem to be the critical factor at the moment as I still believe #gold remains a favoured asset of many due to its overall long-term status in the market place.

Daily Gann Swing chart is below.

Gold Shows a Nice Upwards Pattern :-)

#gold #gann

Gold is now showing a nice upwards trend with regular pull-backs providing buying opportunities. Next buy in should be around spot of USD 3,350 - 3,375 t/oz (or AUD 5,150 - 5,200) plus bullion dealer commission of say USD 35 (AUD 50).

Well it is a start.

Good question. As far as I know the Government C miner would need to craft a policy related to their mining to restrict transactions from Government A; however, they would need a transaction identification method so what Government C says to do may be harder to implement. Also, although most mining is done by some majors there remains other smaller miners that would be outside the reach of Government C. Noting despite the financial sanctions on Russia at present, some sources indicate that they have settled some trades with Bitcoin.

Should a country build its own hash rate? I am for small government and would personally prefer they stayed out of #bitcoin but I do believe they should encourage individuals to mine Bitcoin and maybe businesses (or cooperatives of individuals - as they do with farming).

That’s because they only stack #gold

Bitcoin indecisive!

Medium to long term trends indicate #bitcoin continuing to rise, albeit with some pull backs. The present trend indicates a weak move to USD 107,500 range but on balance I expect a pull back at least to the USD 100k range. At present I think many are hedging their bets and moving to historic safe havens like #gold which could see some liquidations in BTC - another buying opportunity for the less well-heeled individuals.

#bitcoin #capitalism

Capitalism does not exist in reality - we either live in a #socialist or #communist system. What many believe to be western #capitalism has been cut off in many ways thus there is a wealth gap, lower quality of life and poverty. Get rid of #fiat and severely reduce #government and their programs and allow the #market to work freely then we will see real change. One of our biggest problems now in the west is that many expect the #government to step in and solve all the problems plus others rely heavily on #government for welfare or their employment which they are not willing to give up.

Can we extend that to anyone who works for government ONLY and ONLY if they actually do productive work that adds to the nations GDP. Most government work is not productive and does not add value.

Or maybe we should reduce Government to only economically productive activities.