Replying to Avatar Guy Swann

Prediction for the next year in #Bitcoin:

• We will have a healthy pullback from this short run

• People w/ BDS will tweet "See! It CrAsHeS!"

• It'll calm down, start a slow climb, & then rocket up again

• BDS-ers will scream "BuBbLE!!" for the 173rd time

• It'll have a healthy pullback

• Rinse and repeat as #Bitcoin climbs into the multiple hundreds of thousands

• BDS-ers will get increasingly insane and frantic, "IT DOES NOTHING!" "NO UTILITY!" "THIS IS SO DANGEROUS TO OUR ECONOMY!" "SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING!"

• There will finally be another very needed and prolonged correction down to a level about twice the previous ATH

• As we find a stable price in the low to mid $100K, the BDS-ers will claim victory and constantly say "I told you so."

• Bitcoiners will keep building, keep stacking sats, keep using it as their money, and keep watching things get cheaper as priced in #Bitcoin

... and in another couple of years we will do this all over again... AGAIN... just adding another zero to the price.

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TheBitcoinBattery 1y ago

Pretty much. Bitcoin is working as intended and growing as fast as it can honestly.

People will watch it grow in value from under $200 (2015) to almost $20,000 (2017), crying how it's too good to be true and a scam and ponzi, before watching it crash to around $3400 (2019) and feeling vindicated that they were right. All while having missed a nearly 2000% increase in value between bear bottoms over 4 years.

110% average annual gain over 4 years between bear market lows 2015 - 2019 On the other hand, the blow out tops are inevitable when the public pays more attention to the network than the network can sustain.

The fair price for a Bitcoin is it's marginal cost of production as determined by the energy value the mining network has to expend to create new blocks and get rewarded with coins. But the mining network can only grow as fast as miners can buy and power newly produced ASICS.

The currency market has much more room to grow the price however, because it's not limited by production capacity, so it goes up too fast and inevitably crashes. The cash spooks enough people that they ignore it for another 3 years, enough time to allow the mining network to grow enough to support a significantly higher fair value which can accommodate a lot more people.

Honestly, the bull peak does more to slow network growth than it does to speed it up.

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