Subnostr

Most companies raise money to fund the growth of the useful thing they do for society.

(Micro)Strategy still does a useful thing at its core, but the vast majority of it is now a money making exercise for its shareholders. I think this is the problem I have with it. It doesn’t do anything useful.

That is, unless you consider it a giant publicity drive for Bitcoin. But if that is true, then why is Bitcoin not doing more?

Adam Back, who I respect immensely, had a public bet that Bitcoin would reach $100K by the halving. He lost and Bitcoin didn’t reach that target until over 6 months later. It is still hanging around this value 10 months on.

This despite ETFs, MicroStrategy and the huge swell of wealth funds and strategic reserves being built around Bitcoin.

What’s going on? We all know that Bitcoin should be significantly higher by now, even without any of the adoption currently under way.

Bitcoin will still do its thing, but I’m not sure the publicity is making any difference.

To quote a famous meme, “Change my mind”

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Discussion

jamw 11mo ago

It’s all quite interesting. All I can think of is that it’s being held back by those it threatens. They ploughed in, price went up and now they’re constantly selling/buying for tiny profits and losses resulting in a kind of stabilising effect.

Judge Hardcase 11mo ago

2 years ago, BTC was only about $24K... whatever impact ETFs, MSTR, etc have on price, it sure seems like 4x in 2 years might easily cover it. i.e. I think most of the price action in general is speculative noise that drowns out any real signal that can be gleaned. If you told me back then that you predict ETFs and MSTR would force the price up to about $50k in just 2 years, I would have been like, "yeah, sure, that sounds about right."

mike 11mo ago

In March 2021, the price was $69K, this was an overshoot, but should be a distant memory by now.

The rate of global adoption dwarfs any $24K - $50K price movement IMHO

The Daniel 🖖 11mo ago

People we call normies either see it as a club for the elites or a complete scam and it’s almost impossible to change their minds at this point. So just forget about MoE adoption in western countries for the time being. Retail will come back, but in a different form, mostly buying tradfi funds that invest in bitcoin as part of a basket of other diversified assets. It’s a slower build that will take longer to see results.

Judge Hardcase 11mo ago

Fair enough. I have very little opinion as to what the rate of global adoption might be. The best I've come up with is the assumption that March, 2020 and December, 2022 are as close to representing a price based only on adoption as I can get (because the vast majority of the speculative money had fled)... which - extrapolated from there (~63% annually) - would suggest a current *adoption rate only* price of about $48K.

Maybe ETFs, MSTR, etc has boosted this rate. or, maybe ETFs, MSTR, etc are what was necessary to sustain this rate. 🤷‍♂️ IMHO, that's anyone's guess. I'm just saying a drop to $70K, $60K, or even $50K in the next few months - while I see as unlikely - wouldn't exactly shock me.

Diacone Frost 11mo ago

According to power law, the price is exactly where it should be 🤷🏻‍♂️

mike 11mo ago

Yeh, that's what I'm thinking.

We need to sack Saylor as our marketing agent 😂