Typo. Meant credit creation
Discussion
We don’t need credit on a ₿itcoin standard.
Eh, there will always be credit. Not everyone will be able to afford a home, as an example, even on a bitcoin standard.
Precisely. And you need some institution to create that credit, and then you need regulations for those institutions to follow…
Yeah, I agree. I think those institutions will look different than a typical bank though. Idk how, but having a disinflationary money as the standard, that doesn’t need a central bank dictating interest rates, would be at odds with the way it currently works.
It’s exactly the opposite of the way things work now, which is why it is so difficult for us (me too) to see.
We don’t need banks. We have self custody of a bearer instrument. ₿itcoin.
We don’t need interest rates or to earn yield. The hard money goes up in value forever due to its scarcity.
We don’t need inflation, which is just theft via monetary debasement, nothing more.
I’m actually reading The Price of Tomorrow rn (but I’ve been procrastinating). I’m sure it will make more sense when I’m done. I do think banks will still exist though, just not how we know them today. Not everyone will want to self custody their corn, for various reasons, so I think there will be a plethora of custodial institutions. Exchanges act as banks in this way now. There will also be “mints” as in fedimint that will be similar to small community banks issuing ecash to “depositors”
It’s the second book I give to everyone after The ₿itcoin Standard.
I disagree. On hard money everything, including homes, will fall in price.
Simply saving in the hard money is all that is needed.
“Everything falls in price to the marginal cost of production. “ - #[4]
I don’t expect you to understand this. It took me a LONG time before it clicked. Read The Price of Tomorrow. Technology is deflationary by nature, but the fiat debt/credit based system needs to be inflationary to avoid catastrophic collapse.
It may fall to the cost of production but that doesn’t mean that everyone can afford it. And land is still a scarce asset so even if a home falls to the price of production, you still will have to pay a premium for the land.
On the ₿itcoin standard the wealth will be distributed in reverse of the current paradigm. It will go directly to value creators and away from rent seekers. It’s already happening at the outer edges of the monopoly. The fiat rich will see it last as their world grows dimmer and shrinks around them.
Agreed. And not everyone wants to live in the same place or buy the same type of car.
Land is not scarce. You only think it is because you think we can only live in the current city locations. Imagine nuclear reactors that can be funded privately by ₿itcoiners anywhere. Imagine stranded geothermal energy being tapped for bitcoin mining in beautiful uninhabited parts of the world.
₿itcoin mining is the new pioneer species.
No, I know land is scarce because there’s a finite amount of it available.
I agree on your other points though.
There is a finite amount, but we are nowhere near using even a fraction of what is available. Mainly, due to energy and water constraints. But that is going to change. Terraforming the Earth will happen soon and it will lead to a huge economic boom.
Yes but expanding the supply of habitable land doesn’t mean there is not still a finite amount of land. While a sudden “terraforming” might cause land prices to fall drastically, the population of earth will continue to rise (barring existential crisis). And as long as global population rises, so does demand for land. So even if every square inch became habitable, the supply would then be constant with demand still steadily rising. Regardless, these are scenarios that will not happen during our lifetime and may not happen at all.
“Land” is not in demand. Land is everywhere. Drive in any direction.
Land is situationally valuable, depending on who wants it and for what.
Here’s another framing. Anything can monetize given the right conditions. Ramen and cigarettes become money in prison, for example.
So in our current fiat currency debt as money system s we here there has been rampant debasement of the currency since 1971, the people try to store their wealth in something other than the melting currency.
Thus Stocks, Fine Art, College Education, and Real estate have monetized and inflated beyond their actual utility.
Hard money will strip all of them of this unnatural monetization. Because if your money can’t be diluted, confiscated, or sanctioned, hell, just save in that!Makes sense?
Yes, the argument for Bitcoin as hard money makes sense. My point is just that there will still be a need for intermediaries, since a) not everybody will want to take on the burden of self-custody, and b) the need for credit will continue to exist as long as people want to build new things. Make sense?
Yes, it makes sense. I just think it will play out differently.
Self custody will become simple, safe, and commonplace. AI agents could help us here.
On a gold standard, two brothers who owned a bicycle shop were able to save enough hard money to take time off and invent the airplane. No loans, no credit needed. Just a dream and savings in hard money. Imagine that x 1,000.
Well said.
In some cases, people may be able to self-fund ventures like that, sure. Happens with fiat and other non-hard money assets, too. But if you don’t have enough Bitcoin or don’t want to part with it outright, you’ll need credit in some shape or form.
Not if we colonize Mars… 😂
🤣😂, one day we will, but we are a long way from that.
Well you’re already on a different planet than us, my friend 😆
I am. But more of us are seeing it. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. So it’s inevitable.
Just something to think about: what if you’re wrong? A lot of what you’re talking about is aspirational. Doesn’t mean it will happen
I could be wrong, for sure. ₿itcoin could fail too. Nothing is a given. The sun could also not rise tomorrow. There are no guarantees.
I’m not saying that to be flippant. I’m saying we all play the probability game. My bet is on humanity being good, technology continuing to progress exponentially, ₿itcoin continuing to work and get stronger every 10 minutes. And the sun rising tomorrow. These things seem very probable to happen in my world view.
I dont see Bitcoin going away. I just don’t see all the things you’re talking about happening. I see the need for credit creation for growth enablement continuing to exist, and intermediaries to facilitate it. Hence, I see the need for sound regulation of said intermediaries.
While impossible to predict I’m partial to the optimistic view. And so many come away from bitcoin with a change in their worldview. Those that don’t probably burnt by a stove early, and bitcoin was hope for them. I personally don’t know anyone that could “unsee it”.
On the credit topic. I feel like there will be credit simply because people like to take risks.
Check this podcast out with #[2]
You can see the precise moment when it clicks for Peter!
So if you want to buy a house and don’t have enough Bitcoin, what do you do?