I'm not sure how the joules/hash works out for the respective algos.

hard to come up with an average since there are so many different Asics or cpus used...

but yeah, basically you're right.

asic resistance is another trade-off.

we get good decentralization at the expense of warehouse hash machines.

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I get that. But the greatest security risk is a 51% attack and that would be very easy to do on Monero in comparison to Bitcoin therefore Bitcoin is secure in comparison to Monero not the other way around. Having tail emissions doesn’t make up for the lack of hashes.

its just a different vulnerability.

sure, Monero is more vulnerable to a hash attack.

otoh

Bitcoin is indeed gambling that there will be enough tx fees to incentivize miners in the future.

i think a tail emission is a no-brainer. more for game theory, free-rider reasons than "mining death spiral" reasons

and like, why not?

but here we are.