Ooo this is a good "and other stuff" idea.
Discussion
Would be amazing no? Tiny lightning bets with no log in or id
Yes!
Problem probably is (well one of them) where are those zaps going and how are they getting doled out when settled / how to insure this happens.
General Oracle and trust problems
One way to "solve" that is trust-maxxing.
Have npubs that act as trusted oracles, let them set up a zap split thing for everyone on each side of the bet.
When it's over, they are trusted to settle things properly. If they scam everyone, nobody uses them again.
If they keep a small fee, they can be incentivized to be a trustworthy Oracle/escrow and disincentivize cheating (because people will stop using you as an Oracle)
Trustlessness is cool and all, but when you have tighter communities, relying on normal old human trust and accountability can go a long way.
If nostr:nprofile1qqsgydql3q4ka27d9wnlrmus4tvkrnc8ftc4h8h5fgyln54gl0a7dgspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9uhxtnyd9nkwmm09e3k7mgprpmhxue69uhkvet9v3ehgu3wdehhxarjxyhxxmmdqywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndd9jxgmrfdenjumtev3h8xtn2wqergaw8 was an Oracle, would he really scam everyone and blow his credibility?
Yeah that is a good idea!
I think nostr:npub18lzls4f6h46n43revlzvg6x06z8geww7uudhncfdttdtypduqnfsagugm3 has some ideas about this too but they are above my pay grade
I've been wanting this for a long time
The Nostr prediction market should obviously be called Nostradamus!
I'll take my marketing and branding fee in zaps, thank you very much.