People generally say that it would take 30 or 40 years for everyone to onboard to LN given mainchain throughput limitations for opening LN channels. However, I've seen bitcoiners turn that statement on its head and say "good, then that means we have 3 or 4 decades of transition, we can do it slowly rather than thinking that its has to happen all at once."

Also, to the extent that users are not immediately concerned with moving their sats back to the mainchain, it would seem to me that LN can begins to scale natively with whatever liquidity already exists in so much as a new LN channel doesn't have to open every time a new LN user wallet is created.

However the long term risk here is that custodial LN products become the vector for currency inflation / debasement on L2 if/as custodial LN services begins printing paper sats. In that case, anything even approaching a global run on LN wallets back to the mainchain would feel truly calamitous to users.

The solution is probably somehow making non-custodial LN solutions more ubiquitous but I am no expert here and this is an area I'm interested to learn.

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