How quickly would bitcoin have to rebound and make new all-time highs for the bear market thesis to be invalidated? And on the flip side, at what percentage drawdown would the bear market thesis be confirmed?

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I guess 58 is back in play.

Bear trend will be invalidated if Bitcoin closes at $108k or up.

it confirmed with the strong break of the 50 weekly MA

it was an obvious distribution during all the scam price action of october...

I think it's more about timing than %..

If in 6/12 months from now it is higher than 100k I believe you can throw also the 4yrs cycle in the junk..

.. next one is power law.