Discussion
No territorial gains and EU access are both non-starters for Russia. They might as well state they've agreed war must go on and be done with it in a single line.
You didn't read it.
I did. There are clear references to international borders not being moved and strong support to EU accession.
I understand you're not fond of Russia, but that shouldn't stop you from being able to understand they won't agree to those two things.
"Strongly support Ukraine's accession tothe European Union" is one of the bullet points under "This would include commitments to:"
"They reaffirmed that international borders must not be changed by force. Decisions on territoryare for the people of Ukraine..."
Russia told Trump that EU might be okay, but not NATO.
NATO was what Ukraine wanted most, for the security guarantees, but now the USA and the states on this letter, are offering guarantees, instead.
EU security forces as part of the security guarantees, not EU membership.
In the Politico article I posted last night, they claim
> “We believe the Russians, in a final deal, will accept all these things which allow for a strong and free Ukraine. Russia, in a final deal, has indicated they were open to Ukraine joining the EU,” a second U.S. official said.
But I don't have a line to the Russians, to confirm.
I'd imagine that would be contingent to annexation of the eastern territories with a corridor that connects Crimea to Russia and some buffer areas. I doubt they are willing to expand EU frontiers to a 1000km straight line through plains to Moscow.
I don't have a line to Moscow either, just a guess
Seems it’s just another way to say they’re letting Ukraine join NATO to me…
No, Article 5 is open-ended and universal. This is only about Russia and only particular countries.
Both sides currently seem to be cherry-picking bits of the territorial map, including particular power stations, mountains, rivers, harbors, road corridors, etc.
That is actually a hopeful sign. We'll see.
I'm not so optimistic. I think the ukrainians might be the only ones really looking at a map of Ukraine. The rest are looking at a map of the Black Sea and its territorial waters.
They say that decisions on territory have to be made by Ukraine, which is correct. Ukraine needs to have a constitutional referendum, to accept any deal.
That's not how peace treaties work, but whatever.
In any case, Russia will not accept that "strong security guarantees" are put in place before such referendum took place. Because they know if you ask the Ukranians once the war has ended and there's a EU-led security force in the territory (also part of the statement), they won't vote in favor of giving Russia the territory.
So I reiterate, they know those two things are non-startes for Russia.
I'd be surprised, if Russia accepted any plan with any content. If they do, it must mean that their economy is in worse shape than we think.
I'd be surprised if they accepted any plan that did't grant them a victory, since they are in a winning position. I'd be surprised if the EU accepted any plan that wasn't a stalemate at most, since it's not EU citizens who are dying on the war.
Well, yeah. Countries don't have friends. 🤷🏻♀️
Every decision is strategic.