That's a little vague for my tastes. How about this: what would it mean for Bitcoin to "fail"? and then we'll see if "wealth" can put those pathways into effect.
Discussion
Fair.
1. Introduce energy regulations that require miners be certified
2. Introduce financial regulations that require client libraries be certified
3. Introduce consumer protections that require key recovery
4. Introduce AML regulations
Voilà, Bitcoin is now a CBDC
Oh you're taking about legal/regulatory pressure. I thought you were saying wealth itself could manipulate Bitcoin.
It can do that too:
1. "Wait for" an emergency
2. Print a few $T to deal with emergency
3. Suggest the dollar might fail due to emergency
4. When people are afraid and turn to Bitcoin, start aggressively dumping it
5. When confidence is lost, quietly buy most of it in a coordinated fashion that doesn't raise the price
Voilà, Bitcoin is now a reserve currency
How does making it a reserve currency make it fail?
Only UTXOs controlled by banks are liquid. Only blocks mined by approved miners are valid.
Plus, the economy is always growing! Have to account for that, so approved miners will vote for raising the supply cap (or lose approval)
Your story assumes (among other things) that HODLers will stop HODLing. Why do you think HODL is such a core component of this world? I will not fucking sell to the government.
It's also a US-centric story. Unless all those regulations are applied at the global level, other people on Earth who wish to improve their lives by moving to this system will still be able to do so. As their lives get better and the lives of those submitting to the regulations are getting worse, what do you think happens?
You suggest that governments will dump Bitcoin, cratering the price, at the same time as the Dollar is getting rekt. You don't think that makes Bitcoin look even MORE attractive?
Logically it should. Properly timed, no, it will be a painful betrayal at a vulnerable time.
I'm coming at this constructively: I want Bitcoin to succeed! But for that to happen, we also need to recognize the magnitude of what that means.
Well look, that was easy - you've just outlined what a potential attack looks like. When that is playing out in real time and you have unstoppable communication networks exposing it, with a global network of Bitcoiners watching, fully aware of what's going on, what do they do? They HODL and they buy the government dip.
Not on my node.
Right? But now your coins are only accepted by other second class nodes
Who says they're second class?
No one! But the inter-bank markets will have different pricing. If non-bank UTXOs are used to pay a bank, they'll use a lower, non-bank exchange rate
We (and the rest of the planet) will maintain that the government and bank nodes are the second class nodes, and that our nodes and coins are first-class, and the governments and banks can pound sand if they don't like it. ...or, since they made a big play at reserve currency, they can capitulate and join the rest of the network in order to not totally blow their big gamble.
🤷🏻♂️ When very large institutions want your coins they're worth more. When they stop wanting your coins, they're worth less
Perfect answer.
I love the look on people's faces when they ask "but how can you be sure they won't change the cap?" And I answer "because I said they can't"
Because *the majority* says they can't
That's not true. nostr:nprofile1qqsza748zkamgmw4he4hm2xhwqpxd5gkwju38wqh3twmtshx8kv8xvgpramhxw309u6rxdpsd4skjm3wv36kx6mydeejummjvuargwp58qhsz9nhwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmny9uq3samnwvaz7tmxd9k8getj9ehx7um5wgh8w6twv5hsv0qvag and I can be the only two who agree in the while world, we would get the bitcoin we want. All of our existing stack would be ours and eventually the difficulty will fall enough for us to mine new blocks on a bitaxe and then fall more until we can CPU mine.
Since we want the bitcoin that makes the most economic sense there is 0% chance it would be just us, which kinda makes your point pointless.
That would be an interesting choice of hard fork, but no one's gonna stop you 🫡
We don't need to fork. We have what we want. They need to fork.
Reducing the value of your own stack of money by raising the cap would be a pretty stupid fork on their part though.
It seems like you are either a troll or don't understand the game theory of bitcoin.
You said that two people can ignore the rest of the network. Yes, they can, and there's a term for it
A fork requires a change. We didn't fork in this case, they forked.
Semantics. If Bitcoin becomes "a reserve currency", then the wealthy will be the majority and thus "not the fork".
"wealth" denominated how?
If you won't use words correctly because it is inconvenient to your world view you are either an idiot or a troll.
This use of fork is probably older than you and the fork is the group that made the change the others didn't agree to. Always. Even if most people like the change and choose to use the fork.
`fork` was V6 (1975), so I'll give you that. Perhaps this avatar I drew 20 years ago doesn't set expectations appropriately.
Yes, I used the term colloquially to mean the shorter chain after a hard fork. But you're arguing that you're stable as long as you don't change. Obviously you can run your node however you wish, but if you continue to maintain the minority chain you're following in the footsteps of Bitcoin Cash. My argument is that institutions in a primarily reserve currency situation will collude with each other to centralize Bitcoin.
They can centralize the printed fiat, as the illusion slowly dissolves.
Our fork will be where the real value is. And I'm not talking about denominating in fiat.
"do you want to get paid in Bitcoin or fiat-bitcoin for that service?"
"I want to get paid in Bitcoin, not because I can sell it for a good amount of fiat, but because all the other goods and services I want only take Bitcoin"
This is why the "plebs" meme is actually so important.
That story above is entirely in our hands to write. We don't need to concern ourselves with banks and fiat governments if we write that story and live it.
I understand the philosophy, I'm asking people to recognize the physics. If the majority of Bitcoin activity is inside the banking establishment (primarily "a reserve currency"), then they are running the most nodes, coordinating with the most miners, defining the rules. They're patient, capable, careful, and have no interest in individual adoption of a reserve currency. Your taxes will be paid in CBDC, and the exchange rate from non-Bank UTXOs will be a pittance.
Can we agree that you're still measuring all the physics in dollars?
No. I'm measuring it in obligations. You're hearing fiat, but that isn't the same thing. Bitcoin maximalism won't make property, or taxes, or militaries, or force disappear.
Ah I see our problem. I have no problem envisioning a purely voluntary anarcho- capitalist society that provides all those services under consensual payments (in Bitcoin).
Yea, sure, if you say "someone with a gun will make you pay in fiat" then sure, you win unless I'm a quicker draw and better shot.