There was no implied prediction. My initial post was about the actual performance thus far, which we can objectively see is falling behind bitcoin. I am humbly following what the market is determining to be the best money. I used to be much more bullish on gold but I was wrong and I’ve adjusted my views. Money is a winner take all race and it humbles a lot of people.
And yes second layers have trade offs. Everything has a trade off. There is no perfect solution. But there is a balance and bitcoin has the ability to adapt and change to meet those needs. The beautiful thing about the way bitcoin adapts is that it actually incentivizes you to improve it. What annoys me about monero shills is that they don’t acknowledge the trade offs of monero. Do you run a node on monero? Do you mine monero? If monero became the global currency of the world, would it remain decentralized? The blockchain limit of monero is much larger which would make it unaffordable to run a node and keep it decentralized if they actually got the same level of activity that Bitcoin has. Ironically, the fees would rise on monero as well in that world. So what’s the solution then? 😂
The other problem with monero is that the ledger isn’t public and cannot be audited. I know it must be surprising as a privacy advocate to see such a statement but it’s actually very important to know the total supply to prevent paper trading. This is the problem with the price of gold. Since no one knows how much gold exists and you can’t audit the supply of gold held by central banks, they can easily manipulate the price of gold with paper trading. That can also be done with monero. If monero grew bigger than Bitcoin, it would fail because central banks would paper trade monero and suppress the price. Imagine if blackrock launched a monero etf, it would be game over. They can’t do that with bitcoin because you can see the total supply. So even though Bitcoin isn’t perfect in terms of privacy, if you practice privacy yourself on bitcoin, you get the best of both worlds. You get immutability, scarcity, and privacy. You just have to put in a little extra effort for privacy on bitcoin but that trade off is reasonable to me.
My position on bitcoin does not mean I know the future. The future is uncertain and every decision you make regarding anything in your life requires that you make a decision based on what you think is most likely to happen.
