Nostr

Slept on it...

Still think government front running bitcoin before the general public will lead to a dystopia of a future much like today, just 1000sats opposed to $1000 biweekly.

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

70% of the bitcoin is in the hands of private individuals. at a certain point, they will be more powerful than the government. you're probably right that govts will try to get the bitcoin out of the hands of the people, but once fiat is worthless or back on a commodities standard, the govt isn't going to be able to afford to use its money to oppress the people.

my view is that we are more likely to enter a golden age of free markets that generate wealth Venetian style than 1984-scale poverty and tyranny.

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Discussion

mewtwo the corn farmer 11mo ago

The price will run away too fast and they won't be able to catch the plebs.

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

i agree. those that hold any sats when the repricing happens will become more powerful than the govt largely because they will be able to buy and sell without permission. if you don't think the wealthier bitcoiners can't handle this so-called govt threat, i think you're going to be surprised.

when gold was banned, the wealthy created loopholes to keep their stuff. now, they will just memorize their seed words. govts will cave to the new money.

halalmoney 11mo ago

👀

Dan 11mo ago

Too many simps leaving their coins on Coinbase et Al.

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

what percent of the 70% have their bitcoin on exchanges?

Dan 11mo ago

Great question. Probably 50%

William ₿ Travis 11mo ago

how do you know? i think something to look at is how many hardware wallets have been sold. if the hardware wallet companies are staying in business, that's a clue re where the bitcoin is.

i understand that some people use hw to store shitcoins, but i suspect that number is low since in general they don't know what they're doing.

in 2024, the hw wallet market was estimated at $474m. if the avg prive of a hw is $150, that comes to 3.1m devices sold. that's just for 2024.

even if you assume everyone has 3 devices or people are upgrading to better devices each year, the market is projected to grow to a $2.4b industry.

this does not suggest that 50% of bitcoin is on exchanges. this suggests people value self- or shared- custody solutions.