On point. I would rather study the underlying forces and understand how they played out a role in history than trying ever so hard to predict the details of what's next. It's impossible to predict what's next if an analyst does not have all the cards shown.

This is why I like the style of analysis that Wadah Khanfar takes. It looks at history as a human action through geography. The geography doesn't change over time, and it will always force humans in a certain way.

Or as he puts is "Geography is Allah's creation on earth, but history is Humanity's creation in geography"