Based on the attached historic data of BTC vs USD Median Home Price:

2012 → 2024 overall factor: 4.3 ÷ 50,616 ≈ 0.000085

Over 12 intervals, that’s a yearly multiplier of √12 ≈ 0.46

i.e. on avg, each year it’s about 46% of the prior year (a 54% drop).

So if we mechanically continue that same avg shrinkage (× 0.46/year) from 2024 onward:

2024: 4.3 BTC

2025: 4.3 × 0.46 ≈ 2.0 BTC

2026: 2.0 × 0.46 ≈ 0.92 BTC

2027: 0.92 × 0.46 ≈ 0.42 BTC

2028: 0.42 × 0.46 ≈ 0.19 BTC

2029: 0.19 × 0.46 ≈ 0.087 BTC

2030: 0.087 × 0.46 ≈ 0.040 BTC

I know this looks and sounds crazy but hey, that's what the historic data says.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

If you can grok what it looks like when absolute scarcity meets an inflationary world, this doesn't look crazy, just inevitable.

This is the type math everyone should be doing.

This is called unit of account. All bitcoiners should be doing this. Sats are the standard. Nice work!

😂. I don’t see Bitcoin at $2.2 million in 4 yrs. Hope you are right though.