Now I'll enjoy looking at the price chart once in a great while, like once in two weeks for like 2 minutes lol
Discussion
I do check the prices on many markets regularly. Bitcoin somehow slips in whether I want or not 😂
The reason I do that is because it helps me gauge the world wide situation. It's better signal then anything else available to me (like news? lol, prediction markets? why proxy).
And yes, I "can" read the markets because I used to trade. (Wasn't that profitable, so I just stopped).
I still have a use cases for "trading". One of them is bitcoin perpetual futures. When I spend bitcoin and don't have fiat to replenish, I just open a futures trade in the same amount using bitcoin as a collateral (basically a loan). In days like this, you don't even have to pay it back.
That's so cool, I was talking about using perpetual futures as a loan before. Yeah price signals do tell you some good information. Prediction markets are often the clearest, and there is also the call and put deltas which tell you the probability of being above or below a specific price in the future just as good as a prediction market.
By using combinations of these one could do a probability calculus to determine the likelihood of certain complex events or events outside of what is on Polymarket. You could also look for arbitrage opportunities with that. Economic theory and experience alike would help with that. I have a lot of the former and some of the latter.
Back then in my trading times, I thought arbitrage would be an easy profit, but it's quite complex with all the fees and other "hidden" costs, so I figured it's not worth it unless one have giant capital available as profit is marginal. And you can't afford any mistakes.
Yup. Plebs get the worst fees. Until Bitcoin came around.