When they update bitcoin with silent payments it might work

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Silent payments are only for recipient privacy and it is more like obfuscation. Definitely an improvement, but doesn't help sender or amount privacy.

It doesn't work as well on a transparent chain. Counter party can still easily figure what address it went to. Even third parties can figure it out if they know 2 of 3: time of transaction, amount, or sender address

Still might work eventually. The end state would be the same as Monero - some people have their security compromised, but most people cannot be tracked down via their transactions and most people's money cannot all be tracked down without their keys. The IRS loses the ability to just freely track everything at once in one big comprehensive view.

"Still might work eventually."

Yes, maybe eventually it will be figured out. But right now it's inferior to Monero when it comes to private transactions.