Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

The complicated aspect about the Social Security system in the United States is that it was falsely marketed.

It's called an "entitlement" because people pay into it and are supposed to get it back like a pension, regardless of whether they are rich or poor when they retire. And so the Baby Boomer generation views any cuts to their social security as a rugpull, basically. It's not insurance or charity; it's an entitlement.

However, although it was marketed as like an entitlement/pension, that's not how the math worked out in practice. And it's because population growth is slowing. It was based on ponzi math, assuming that every generation will be bigger than the one that came before it. But the Baby Boomer generation was huge.

In addition, when Social Security was created, the retirement age was set near the average life expectancy. Many people would not live long enough to collect it, and most would collect it for a handful of years. Only a small minority of outliers would work for like 40 years and then live off social security for like 20+ years. But then over the decades, life expectancy increased by like 15 years, so the default assumption is indeed that someone can work for 40 years and then have 20+ years of retirement, even though the amount they pay into it doesn't really mathematically cover that. It's not designed for that en masse.

And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. Which means they get a worse deal. Many Millennials don't even think they'll get it at all, despite paying into it.

That breaks up the social contract and sets up inter-generational political conflict. "Fourth Turning" stuff.

It's a big reason why "defined benefit" plans are inherently unstable; they rely on being able to predict the future.

And it's also a big reason why, when speaking about deficits, nothing stops this train.

Australia transitioned away from defined benefit schemes in the eighties and early nineties, and has increased retirement age (not a legal concept here, but when you can access a pension or your benefits) has been increasing too, from 55 when I was young to 67 currently.

I'm not a huge fan of the resulting system in its details, but it's a sign that people and politicians used to care about longer-term thinking. (Interestingly, these reforms were from the Left, not Right, which maybe explains why they happened?).

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You can’t stop human nature. Any one of us under the right conditions can turn to evil. No man is good, not one.

Australia has 2 schemes. The aged pension & superannuation. The pension is a welfare payment calculated based on your income & assets one you hit 67.

Superannuation is different in that it is your money held in trust until you reach preservation age (60 for most Australians). Each Australian employee is forced to pay 11% of their gross income into a superannuation fund.

The trouble with superannuation funds is that they are subject to the same aging demographic problem. Most funds invest in equities, CRE & bonds. As our population ages and consumes from these funds, the investments don't benefit from the forced saving as much. It becomes another ponzi only it's felt in declining superannuation "yields".

The saving grace in our system is that you can set up your own superannuation trust/fund & manage the investing yourself. My self managed fund is very heavily invested in Bitcoin which has performed quite well over the last 4 years. Currently none of the managed funds offer exposure to Bitcoin.

The fundamental difference is between defined benefit (pension scheme) and defined contribution (super). The latter *is* thought of as an entitlement, but the separate accounting makes that closer to the truth?

Ofc, poor overall economic performance will hurt super (in Australia, this means if property prices ever go down, we're screwed).

I suspect the govt will raid the outliers during some crisis ("who needs $10m of super?" they will cry) probably using exit taxation. This political risk from here to my retirement is significant, which is why I've never topped up mine.

Agreed.

I've never contributed more than I was compelled to because of this. I was so disillusioned by the whole scheme that I set up a SMSF and dumped it into Bitcoin before I'd built up much conviction in Bitcoin. The biggest drawcard for me was being able to custody the asset. With hindsight, it worked out well for me.

They're already seeking to tax unrealised gains on superannuation balanced over $3m AUD (Division 296). That $3m figure is not even indexed to CPI, so you can imagine how many will be effected by it over the years.