#cruster #PeakOil

My point about Peak Food (though that's a great pic to roll with) wasn't so much 'Whole Paycheck Foods' or 'Traders in the col' col' ground Joes' but degradation of the Supply chain. I remember in 2020 local bakeries posting signs about how they couldn't get flour and would reopen when they could... we've moved on to 'and everything you can buy in convenience and 'super' markets is of degraded quality or trying to skim as a grift (the enshittification of everything as a business model)

Fossil fuels are obviously important, but in several different levels: 1/ the geopolitical level of 'we need greenland because thar's oil in that thar sea' and to keep the party going we need to fight over it 2/ the logistical level of, without oil, I can't float my boat, er container ship and do logistics of globalism and 3/ the human level of 'It's a three dog night and I don't have enough dogs, just NatGas'

tl;dr - wrangling over planetary resources, you can't invade Russia with oil but you need to invade Russia in Winter to *get* oil and ... who moved my cheese?

Last is an obscure reference to a book Boeing used to recommend when there were mass layoffs

The parody book was better though:

tl;dr 1/ you are a rat in a maze and think you are entitled to cheese, like Wallace and Grommit Were-Rabbit 2/ book length form of the series 'Arrested Devolopment'

It hasn't escaped my notice that since this fellow was invited here, and dropped, he has started to remember his 'Peak Oil' roots... https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/catch-20-the-20-dynamics-that-will

... quotation to follow

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Discussion

1. The system is optimized for infinite growth / expansion. If expansion falters, the system crashes.

2. The system is optimized for infinite substitution of whatever becomes scarce as the means to continue expanding. Each substitution is inferior / not equivalent to the original resource.

3. These optimizations only function in a narrow envelope. Should the system stray outside this envelope, it crashes.

4. The fundamental principle of the system is "no limits": there are no limits on human ingenuity, and so there are no limits on technology and growth.

5. There are intrinsically contradictory dynamics in the system.

6. Scale and asymmetry are the core contradictory dynamics.

7. The system's optimizations mis-diagnose problems, so it selects "solutions" that accelerate its own dysfunction.

8. The system lacks the means--the values, feedback and institutional structures--to adapt to changing conditions. The solutions offered are based on misdiagnoses of the actual problems, so the problems only become more intractable.

9. As a result, the preferred "solutions" are all forms of play-acting, i.e. the notion that controlling the narrative / framing the "problem" as solvable with existing policies is actually solving the problem.

10. The system's core mythology is Technological Progress is unlimited and unstoppable and so it will solve all problems by its very nature. We can remain comfortably seated and watch as Technology solves whatever problems arise.

11. This belief blinds us to the fact that technology also generates Anti-Progress. Since accepting Anti-Progress undermines our core faith in Technological Progress, we deny the existence of Anti-Progress, just as we deny being addicted. This denial renders us incapable of correctly diagnosing problems and choosing actual solutions rather than play-acting "solutions."

12. Due to these conditions, the system is involuted: no matter what option we choose, nothing changes systemically. Real change is only possible at the micro-level of our own lives, by creating our own adaptable "life-system."

13. Over-Optimization renders the system fragile and vulnerable to breakdown. In our hubris, we believe we control all variables.

14. Cycles of War and Debt Renunciation are aligned and mutually reinforcing.

15. The Logic of Planned Obsolescence and Addiction: these are the drivers of new sales / profits.

16. Jevon's Paradox: new sources of energy are consumed rather than substituted for existing sources.

17. Tacit loyalties / "tribes" that no longer align with traditional political / ideological boundaries are emerging; these are as yet "unbranded" and unrecognized: akin to objects invisible to our eyes because they're radiating infrared energy.

18. Under-competence: we have just enough knowledge / experience to keep the machine running but not enough to rebuild it or adapt it.

19. The critical keystones in the system are not visible until they crumble, bringing down what was presumed to be rock-solid and permanent.

20. The relentless increase in the cost of essentials fuels a decline in the quality of goods and services, to the point that we have lost any sense of quality.

It's not popular to view the system from a great distance. From low-Earth orbit, we see only the mighty sprawl of immense power. The internal gearing driving contradictory dynamics is buried beneath the grandeur and the euphoria.

> 17. Tacit loyalties / "tribes" that no longer align with traditional political / ideological boundaries are emerging; these are as yet "unbranded" and unrecognized: akin to objects invisible to our eyes because they're radiating infrared energy.