Federal spending is up. So there is a pretty big focus on generating new revenue to pay for it.
Most analysis so far shows that tariffs are being paid primarily by U.S. consumers and U.S. businesses. The foreign share (in the form of price cuts) is pretty low.
One of the impressive things about Trump is that he managed to convince a nontrivial percentage of conservatives to cheer for higher spending and new taxes to pay for it.
The golden age.... Hahaha
People will always look for the fix all cure.
Trump always serving a masterclass in politics
He plays the game like no one else, it’s astonishing (and concerning)
Can you point to where the U.S. consumer is paying tariffs? I’ve seen numerous items demonstrate otherwise.
Pay attention to prices at the grocery store. The price of coffee makes me want to dump it into a harbor.
Aggregate import prices (which are measured pre tariffs) aren’t down at all.
This doesn’t account for stockpiling or substitution, correct?
would stockpiling affect the price or only the volume post April in this graph?
If the BLS data is pre-tariffs, we can’t know what country goods are coming from. It’s well known China ships stuff through other countries all the time. I’m not sold on looking at BLS data (that gets revised 100% of the time) to say customers are paying the tariffs. It might be so, just not convinced.
It’s going to be interesting if the US economy can sustain this long term. There will be a race to build up their manufacturing capability against the revolt of their own citizens due to higher prices.
I don’t really believe he convinced anyone.
But everyone is too lazy to resist.
oh there is a minimum 20% of the US population that believes it. they'll believe anything he says though
Something about a train not stopping?
venmo user donations will fix that
The train is very big and beautiful, did I say how beautiful it is? It's the most beautiful train I ever saw!
Oof! This kinda takes the wind out of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent “Are you tired of winning yet 🇺🇸?” post on X, doesn’t it. Who’s the “you” in that sentence?
It’s not team blue or team red. Join team orange (the Bitcoin movement).
When 'winning' still comes out of our wallets. Masterclass in making taxes feel like a celebration.
🚂 🚂
With the genius act creating forced buyers of treasuries, stablecoins ability to transgress currency regulations, and dollar demand over local currencies, how does the rest of the world react to such a change? Does USA become a world currency?
The consumer is not paying the tariffs. That’s a ridiculously bad take.
I mean, I do this for a living and looked at the data. Consumers and businesses are currently splitting most of it. Import prices aren’t down at all.
Also if you ask most AI models “based on as broad analysis as possible, who is paying the bulk of the tariffs: us consumers, us businesses, or foreign exporters?” it’ll tell you mostly the first two.
But happy to see your counterpoints.
Of course import prices aren't down. Competition has already squeezed out all margins available.
The idea of import taxes, officially, isn't to bilk foreign producers out of available funds they're somehow withholding. Taxes are meant to encourage local production that replaces imports. That, of course, is easier said than done.
and they haven't done it so where still paying
"we're still paying"? yes onshoring the industrial base takes ages. and it's not clear import tariffs will stay high, what with this just being the president throwing a tantrum.
lol, do you have data that shows otherwise? or you just a trump worshipper who has too much conservative news brain rot?
He’s a Trump worshipper
Enlighten us
That’s funny, because I recently purchased something and it literally had a tariff charge added to it 🤔🤔
As someone who works for a company that bring in consumer goods from Asia, I can confirm that the tariff increases resulted in a customer cost increase.
So you're saying that tarrifs are magical? That the money comes from no where and no one has to pay them?
Most people don't see tariffs as as a tax issue.
Effective marketing.
You could say that.
Most people think incentivizing domestic manufacturing is a bigger issue.
Construction spending on manufacturing facilities isn’t up this year.
There’s a whole host of reasons why manufacturing isn’t big in this country. So, for the most part it’s just a tax on something that, at best, can change *very* slowly.
Construction takes years. It's too early to call the policy a failure based on construction.
t is fascinating to me that the consequences of Trump admin's action will, in some ways, result in outcomes that many Dems would claim to want and that traditional Repubs would claim are to not want...but i suppose it's a reflection of how tribal politics are as it has nothing to do with outcomes and everything to do with just having your dude in the office (or more optimistically we are seeing the evolution of the two parties in real time as their constituent bases shrink/grow)
The Fart of the Deal.
Last time an American president tried to "solve" a trade deficit with tarrifs what followed was remembered as the "great depression"
Remember that
It doesn’t seem difficult for him to convince so-called “conservatives” of anything he wants them to believe. They swallow it all, rather eagerly.
Where are you seeing this?
A lot of conservatives - including much of his base - are totally fed up with Trump.
According to polls, 1/3 of Americans still support him, for some reason. That 1/3 is an unthinking cult, and they will swallow every lie.
I'm not MAGA, but one thing that I truly appreciate about them is that they are generally calling him to account for his recent actions and statements. The contrast with Democratic voters is striking. Very very few Dems called out Biden or the DNC for basically skipping the party (or keeping Biden in place after his dementia had been clear for years). The outraged conservative voices are very loud right now.
The group that elected Trump is not happy with him, and you can see it by those poll numbers you quoted. From 50 something percent to 33 is not great
My guess is that 1/3 are not Trump cult, they're partisan cult, people who support a Republican no matter what.
Trump is going around saying the polls are rigged and he’s at 70%. 🤡 He’s surrounded himself by terrified supplicants who only tell him what he wants to hear. He thinks he’s infallible, so he is blind to reality and is making mistakes. It won’t end well.
I totally agree. It's MAGA being disloyal that has me somewhat hopeful. Politicians - and supplicants - suck.
I could be on the wrong track here -
but the role of stable coins might impact on keeping the value of the USD artificially high and its a way for Federal Reserve Bank to print and sell more debt.
Bassent focuses on selling the short term bonds, that attracts the low interest rate, just biding his time until Powell drops the interest rate.
Then he can focus on selling the long term bonds, locking in the lower interest rate.
As for the tariffs - I'm starting to think Trump deliberately played this to re-negotiate the debt owed by USA to all the countries caught holding the bond/treasury bags due for payment.
I might be using the wrong dots, because there are way more variables I still haven't connected.
Warning readers: this note is my theory based on stuff I've been reading .
Either way, regular people lose and get poorer.
It's going to be a big week
A significant part of the general political problem is the party-endorsed candidates that float above the rest. They are like that foamy residue at water treatment plants.
