so you would argue its better to trade than to hodl?
Are you arguing that Europe wants war with the US? Because otherwise i'm not getting this
general populus adopting Signal instead of Whatsapp seems to increase rapidly atm
😉 |
An interesting short read, not very 'hopeful' however. The longer I think about it, the more I think that all money (also crypto) in itself is just f*cked. Bitcoin is just a bit less f*cked than others (by design).
https://phinancetechnologies.com/content/2025-11-14_LinkedIn%20Crypto%20Post%202.pdf
I think it's more likely my Bitcoin 5-year price model breaks to the downside than to the upside.
I wrote about Controlled Opposition Assets (to Bitcoin as MoE) - https://controlplanecapital.com/p/controlled-opposition-assets-to-bitcoin
TL;DR: To de-fang Bitcoin-as-money, the Controllers oversupply substitutes that feel “hard”, “digital”, “innovative”, or “yieldy” - but live in supervised pipes.
This includes:
1. Gold (esp. via ETFs/vaulted products)
2. Spot Bitcoin ETFs / futures ETPs / broker wrappers / treasury companies
3. Stablecoins & tokenized Treasuries (USD rails)
4. ETH + L2/”Web3 compute” with compliance defaults
5. AI mega-caps & the power stack (chips, hyperscalers, data centers)
6. Meme-coins/alt-L1 manias on KYC venues
7. CBDCs & digital-ID money (the end-state substitute)
Obviously, Gold is the most credible Controlled Opposition asset (https://controlplanecapital.com/p/why-gold-has-been-allowed-to-run?r=6i2zjv).
Gold can satisfy the public’s “store-of-value” impulse without granting a parallel, censorship-resistant payments rail; it trades in surveilled, gate-kept markets (London OTC/COMEX, custodian oligopolies).
So it seems that Bitcoin's MoE threat freed Gold from the relentless price suppression and now Bitcoin is the suppressed, paperized asset.
Gold soaks hedge demand from retail/institutions who prefer ETF/IRA-friendly exposure over key management. That’s deliberate crowding-out of Bitcoin as Medium of Exchange.
Gold stabilizes optics & balance sheets and siphons dissent — perfect for a regime moving to identity-bound, programmable money.
When I wrote my price prediction model, I assumed: if Bitcoin's price suppression is too obvious, people are just going to take self-custody.
Bitcoin is much easier to take self-custody of than gold, so the Controllers are incentivized to supply a channel where "Bitcoin is never cheap enough to trigger a self-custody revolt, never euphoric enough to create escape velocity".
This is still my base case, however, I now did more research on whether Bitcoin being cheap would trigger a self-custody revolt at scale and I don't think it's a given.
Why “cheap” Bitcoin won’t trigger a self-custody revolt (at scale)
- Learned convenience: Keys are work; ETF app is zero-friction. Habit beats ideology.
- Narrative laundering: “Institutional-grade custody is safer for your family” → social proof wins.
- Selective pain: If price cheapens gradually and wrappers promote yield/covered-call income, paper holders feel clever, not robbed.
- Perimeter nudges: App-stores, banks, and payroll rails steer away from non-KYC wallets. Most will not route around their entire digital lives to self-custody.
- Absence of a galvanizing villain: Unless a visible confiscation happens, the default is apathy + inertia.
So price weakness alone is insufficient. Revolts need salient betrayal + turnkey migration UX. We’ll likely get neither.
The price corridor could shift down 20-30% and still look "managed".
Result: modal EOY targets compress (e.g., $190k → $140–160k in Year 5), realized vol declines, and the Sharpe looks fine - just lower trend.
The down-shift tells one can watch are:
- Paperization Ratio (PR) > 35–40%, trending up.
- Perp premiums disappear on rallies; basis rich but spot lags.
- ETF net creations slow while NAV discounts recur on stress.
- Retail search/flows migrate to stables (“yield” beats “digital gold” in social data). Regulated stables on T-bill rails can offer sticky 3–5% realish yields + embedded refunds/rebates; they'd become the everyday MoE and savings default.
The Bitcoin as SoV-only campaign while pumping Controlled Opposition assets (mostly Gold, AI stocks) is exactly what crushes Bitcoin's volatility to the upside over time.
When ETFs/notes/treasuries + futures grow to, say, 35–45% of circulating supply; basis and options overwrite become the profit center for the largest intermediaries.
So tops are sold harder and floors defended less because wrapper sponsors maximize carry, not price.
The trend of the Paperization ratio is the thing to watch. If it goes up, the plebs are losing. If it goes down, the plebs are winning.
nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqvtw30knexxgwasss0qwafnz68hdx6u25xwpclsz4750ez46qpx2qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qqcx67fdvf5hgcm0d9hz6dfd09jkzu3dwpexjcm994kk7er9dskkxmmww3skjmndv4h8gttjv4nkjmt94yzq2t
This post is underrated
what am I looking at? im too stupid to understand based on the graph :P
rektbot is pretty active today
Zcash from 480 to 380 within 6 hours. Arthur Hayes is starting to give Jim Cramer vibes...
Great video. Finally one without the tribal feel behind it.
Maybe this is a stupid question, but why would Tornado Cash and Samourai be forbidden, but Zashi be ok?
In 2009 the stock market was in shambles bc of this, now it keeps pumping whilst those defaults have been trending up for since 2023...
Microsoft is the last monopolist I find difficult to turn my back on because of Windows, but most others (Google, X, Meta f.e.) are pretty easy to dodge.
GrapheneOS, Proton, Nostr and Signal provide great alternatives imo.
Blunt truth
great choice, but why would you be screwed?
Can somebody confirm? Looking at this chart it seems like the Euro is done for international trade, whilst it's been stronger relative to the dollar in the last year (+15%)
⚡️🗣️ NEW - Finland's President: "we are now starting to see the change of a world order... right now we are living in a 1918, 1945 or 1989 moment in world history... we just dont know where the world is going to go."
https://blossom.primal.net/232c72584441d15bc03ae816b984c10d5917c82b033a62910ee2fa6dc57318a4.mp4
Maybe the best president of Europe
To be fair, those platforms are full of bots from botfarms and do contain massive amounts of misinformation.
Gen Z needs to listen to figures like Ron Paul and understand that the Federal Reserve is the root of their problems. I completely get their frustration with not being able to afford anything, but it doesn't do much unless you know who your enemy really is.
https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1954184659144790016/vid/avc1/480x464/YDgM9X96eWAgAYU8.mp4
Great
Child abusers will find another way to do it, while the mass will face total surveillance.
This is not about child abuse.
Curious to this as well
Sad..😔
I conclude (for myself) that all-in on bitcoin (no fiat) is way too dangerous. Mistakes like this are easily made, Apple store has a pretty strong vetting procedure normally, so this could have happened to a lot of people.
1. Don't go all in on Bitcoin.
2. Have more btc adresses
anybody else with Brave Browser having an issue with deposits and withdrawal on #Lightningpoker?
Sounds good, maybe add Reticulum
Take care of your data..
https://pluralistic.net/2025/07/30/efficiency-washing/#medallion-clubbed
Someone needs to tell him about Nostr https://www.robertmao.com/blog/en/the-future-is-not-self-hosted-but-self-sovereign
Great article tho. Nostr is surely on the right track, competiton will increase, but thats fine!
They sure dont smell the same
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Make the switch to Kagi.
(And before you ask, yes, Monero support is coming very soon!)
https://blossom.primal.net/3489afee259635e8fd4a0c4f5d2a14815bff838e3dda038d1503a6c0ff9e12b6.webp
