Subnostr

I agree that bitcoin won't replace all of the top segment of the financial system. That's a unique take I haven't been hearing from many people and I appreciate the thought.

I disagree regarding the sentiment that other people are too late to accumulate lifechanging amounts of BTC.

If the overall thesis is correct, that BTC will reach global adoption and wipe out most or all fiat use cases, the value of BTC will surpass 10M rather easily. It will also continue to increase in purchasing power indefinitely until it is replaced or destroyed (both seem very unlikely).

Have you read The Price of Tomorrow? Definitely worth checking out.

Also, regarding confiscation. Can you think of a single thing any govermment has successfully banned?

hh 2y ago

I don't presume to be able to predict so far into the future as required for BTC to have reached a valuation of $10 M.

But in fact, if I accept that possibilty, and you accept the possibility that governments ban the private use of BTC, even if they fail at enforcing it universally, you should see we have a problem here. Both statements can't be true, or hardly.

As a matter of fact I think they're directly correlated: if BTC eats gold's lunch (BTC = $500k), you can bet enforcement of the public monopoly will ramp up. If it hits $10 M, it will be total.

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Discussion

Sourcenode 2y ago

If you believe hyperbitcoinization is possible or understand that fiat trends towards zero endlessly 10M is bearish imo.

Regarding the confiscation ect. Don't underestimate the incompetence of the government 😂

hh 2y ago

I am conceding both points. That BTC can reach 10 M and that the government is incompetent. Just not infinitely.

Most importantly, they don't need to be 100% competent in banning BTC to prevent it from doing all the things we expect it to do in terms of replacing parts of the current financial system.

The amount of capital required for BTC to reach 10 M (in current PPV) can only be mobilized by nation states and their associated banking and financial crony systems.

Sourcenode 2y ago

I appreciate your openness. It's really important to me to communicate the optimism I am seeing in our current position. I spend a lot of time thinking about the risks we are facing.

Fear doesn't help us grow, but of course some fear is rational.

Regarding the amount of capital required to reach 10M, it really depends how tightly the current supply is held.

We won't know until it happens, but my guess is that 20-30% of the supply won't sell off into the market at any fiat price. That percentage will increase over time. The higher that percentage gets the less liquidity will be required to send BTC flying.