"Hey, you know, that guy running the govt you're squeezing with economic sanctions, tanks & military bases on their border, the pipeline you just blew up, & the overthrow of their closest trading partner to start a proxy war... He has a bunch of nukes & has clearly said that he will use them."
"Yeah but they're not that well maintained so really what are the chances if that?"
Mutually Assured Destruction game theory breaks down when you remove the assurance.
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Unfortunately It still breaks down into a place of wide spread devastation.
I have, on several occasions, chosen to enter conflicts in which I was extremely likely to loose.
At least I am not a nation state, nor do I own nuclear weapons.
