Some think S2F model is invalidated/broken because EMH, laser eyes, demand, autocorrelation, 100k, cointegration
Others are watching S2F trading rule and waiting for 2024 halving to bring profits once again (like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings did before)
Time will tell who is right
i think given enough time, all models will be entirely broken 😉
Time goes by🧡
S2F only looks at supply side.
Supply AND demand determine price (if one cares anymore about price in USD terms).
Takes two to tango
But yes, I'm long-term bullish, and this is my Plan A
The drunken man & his dog make it hard to invalidate the model, except to the upside.
S2F explains the effect of an absolutely fixed supply using a relatively fixed supply resource.
I got value from the model as an educational tool, but it probably made me too optimistic last cycle.
I've stopped trading bitcoin. Up & to the right over time is all I need to know. Stay humble & stack sats, is all I need to remember.
El mercado no el tiempo
You’ve taken a lot of flack for this which I don’t fully understand why. Similar to Jason Lowery - I feel you will both have the last laugh
