An ignored part of the current quantum computer fud^H^H debate, because it's a counterfactual: back in 2015-17 a lot of people got very excited about a proposal from Greg Maxwell to do "confidential transactions" on bitcoin. I was very much in the group of people both fascinated and excited about the prospect and went very deep down the rabbit hole on it, learning a lot about cryptography along the way.

But the energy to even suggest a fork to include it slowly dissipated; my own personal reason for rejecting it was *not* the obvious "the range proofs are too large" (see: Bulletproofs, work that was heavily inspired by that scaling problem, though it ended up being far more significant w.r.t. "folding"). It was "pedersen commitments are only computationally binding" [1], to put it another way an EC break means we get unbounded, invisible inflation. At the time it was fun to predict that Zcash had this failure mode and indeed it was borne out (look up their history if you don't know). It felt weird justifying this to people sometimes: "I don't want a bitcoin where amounts are not visible because the total might not add up" sounds Luddite ... I remember being asked on a panel by Giulia Fanti "are you scared that P=NP or something?" ... it was not felt to be a quite logical thing to worry about this, since we rely on EC in Bitcoin anyway ... and if we trust EC, the math of homomorphic commitments *guarantees* it adds up!

But a computational bound on that is not OK. i.e. i don't want *any* computer to be able to break it! not just normal computers! - and that's exactly where a quantum computer comes in. I am FAR more worried about breaking bitcoin's fixed supply than about a million old P2PK coins getting stolen. Stealing is not minting.

[1] A counterpoint is that ElGamal commitments exist, at the cost of even more space. But hey, it's still less space, by a huge margin, than current post quantum signature schemes! Something worth considering?

#cryptography #bitcoin

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Need to hear more about that counterpoint! 👍

I’ve been developing a physical model of Bitcoin that measures satoshis in joules and treats each block as an irreversible thermodynamic event. This framework only works because Bitcoin’s UTXOs are observable. Their balances are the informational “mass” that allows us to quantify the Shannon entropy written into each block and map it to the energy expended to create it.

To my understanding ElGamal commitments will hide utxo balances on chain, so that observability disappears. IMO, we wouldn’t just lose supply transparency; we would lose the ability to measure the entropy of the system at all. The thermodynamic structure of Bitcoin depends on visible state transitions. Hide the balances, and you break the physics.

If Bitcoin is the only system where work, time, and value are measurably connected, what happens when we hide the very quantities that make that possible? I don’t think anyone knows the answer to this, myself included.

Almost nobody is thinking about the physical substrate beneath Bitcoin, so I’ll say it from my work currently, it breaks everything. We don’t even fully understand the downstream consequences because it removes the empirical measurability that makes Bitcoin unique among all monetary and computational systems.

The irony is that in this framework, the entire push for PQC becomes unnecessary. A quantized-time model falsifies the threat assumptions behind attacks, because the attack models rely on a continuous-time ontology that Bitcoin itself disproves. The visibility of UTXOs is what anchors these measurements and enables the physical interpretation. Remove that visibility, and you lose both the physics and the ability to falsify the threat model.

I could definitely be wrong here, but this is a point that must be considered and explored beyond just me.

Does that mean an EC break would allow an attacking member to drain the Bitcoin from the Liquid federation using confidential transactions?

Yeah. An interesting detail, crossed my mind too!

Unless they switched to El Gamal but I very much doubt it.

But wait you said member. Why not any user?

I tried to zap you for this post, but I had various problems

Then I tried to pay your LNURL directly and got this after about a minute

Yeah not working atm sorry