Some guesses for 2026:

1. The Federal Reserve will lower the fed funds rate below 3.5%...

2. Which will spur economic growth and inflation...

3. Which will cause the long end of the Treasury yield curve to rise towards and above 5%...

4. Which will be unacceptable to Wall Street and the current administration...

5. Which will induce the Fed to begin yield curve control...

6. Which will cause material weakness in the US dollar...

7. Which will lead to further currency debasement...

8. Which will become fodder for large increases and volatility across risk assets.

The two most important (and generally overlooked) factors in determining (guessing) bitcoin's fiat price action over the coming quarters are:

1. Chinese liquidity

2. American manufacturing

I expect both to accelerate... materially.

Just my guess. You do you.

The delayed effects of massive dollar strength into mid-January 2025 are coming to an end.

Economic surprises should start moving from bad to less bad.

This is bullish.

#Bitcoin--the world's freest market--will be among the first assets to respond accordingly.