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First, that line is drawn wrong because by 2020 warming was + 0.9 C, not +1.25 C as shown. Second, absolute average temperatures like 15.3 and 13.8 are less certain than the difference, which is why the difference is used instead (If you subtract 13.8 from 15.3 you'll get the wrong value because they were measured using different techniques).

But most of all, I take issue with the idea that +1.5C or +2.0C will cause climate chaos only seen in movies. It will cause many extinctions (because there are very many species) and some people might have to move, but more likely some cities may need to build some storm walls. My bet is people won't even move in significant numbers.

Global warming does not cause extreme weather events, it only increases their frequency or intensity (or both) by small amounts because the weather system has more energy in it... so when you see devastatingly high temperatures or massive wildfires, these are only slightly worse than they would have been if climate change wasn't happening.

Far more people die of "too cold" than of "too hot"... at about a rate of 10 to 1. Global warming will save lives.

Earth is coming out of an ice age where temperature and CO2 levels have been extremely low (looking back at the last 100 million years or so). However, humans evolved during the last few million, so where we are going is unprecedented for humans, but not for primates. Humans originally specialized as persistence hunters - heat was in our favor.

I think we should cautiously and smartly figure out how to stop putting CO2 into the atmosphere. We are emitting it far too rapidly to be sustainable. We probably need to continue to burn fossil fuels in order to invent the solutions. Many solutions are already online as rich countries are emitting less and less over time. But I don't know how to tell poor African and Indian kids that they aren't allowed to get rich.

I think it is neigh impossible to stop climate change and you'd be better served figuring out how to adapt. For example: this might be a good time to buy property in Russia.

And I'm not here to argue. This is just a dump of my brain for your edification. Take it or leave it.

very interesting, but your line about buying property in russia gave me the hiccups ) I am from ukraine

Not true, look at the battle map. Kherson has been liberated, Kharkiv region almost completely liberated. Dude, it is internet, your words easily can be checked

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

A recent meme has been “Nostr Lyn” where I am more raw here than anywhere else. I love that. Nostr is raw truth. Here is some meat for those willing to be here, purposely enjoying a decentralized and small protocol/community. No filter; just me.

I eat healthy, I exercise, I minimize problems, etc. I am one of those people who, when I first experimented with a keto diet nearly a decade ago, measured my ketones with a blood test on a regular basis to ensure I was in ketosis, and plotted out my blood sugar and ketone level on a regular basis, to see how it matched with my subjective well-being and various biometrics. I was doing science and various if/else observations. And now that I have experience in this dietary regard, both subjectively and biometrically, I am more flexible in terms of seasonal ketosis, broadly low carb, mild/moderate cheat meals at restaurants, and so forth. In other words, I precisely know my dietary limits where I feel bad vs where I feel good generally. I bike most days, and run and lift where possible. I enjoy a nice glass or two of wine with a nice meal on occasion, but little else.

But on those very rare occasions when I disregard moderation, well, fuck. “All things in moderation, including moderation. Sometimes you gotta party”. During the depth of my recent burnout phase in the past two weeks, I went out and… I ignored moderation one night in terms of wine and such. In terms of numbers, I only get hungover like once per year. I do, afterall, live near Atlantic City, which has plenty of clubs and so forth. I don’t even like marijuana, but I did marijuana too (which is legal in this state).

The next morning? Holy shit. I hadn’t been wrecked like that in a few years. Not only was it my yearly fuck-up, it was my multi-year fuck-up. It was a culmination of working 16-hour days with no weekends for months in a row and then the release all at once. My advice: don’t do that if you can help it. Especially if you are in your 30s or older, where you don’t heal as quickly as if you are in your 20s.

I had an interview with David Lin at like noon the next morning and my base case was to cancel it at the last minute due to how rekt I was. But I had *never* done that before, and Lin is an amazing interviewer and an acquaintance of mine, so I couldn’t do that to him, and I knew he could handle it if I was a bit lackluster. Tens of thousands of people would see this.

So, I rolled out of bed, drank some matcha, and somehow got myself in front of my camera to try to replicate what I would normally do every day with no issue. While I was doing it, I felt so off-base, thinking, “Anyone watching will know I’m so fucked right now that I’m like almost half-drunk from last night. This might be my worst interview ever. They’ll notice, right?”

I was almost afraid to go back and watch it. I only watch a small subset of my interviews for iteration purposes, but because this was my potential fuck-up, I went back and watched it closely. And you know what? In terms of views and comments and content, it was above average.

Probably it was because I was so mentally focused at the time to not fuck up. Where I lacked energy, I made up for in focus. I looked for signs in myself in my after-review, and the *only* place I can see it is in my eyes. I often squint during interviews because I am thinking a lot, but in this interview my eyes are constantly squinted/dead because I am barely able to even be there. That’s the only small sign where my multi-year fuckup hangover becomes apparent. All of my verbal content is normal, and leans above average.

After the interview, since I was non-functional, I went back to bed, and vowed not to fuck up like this again. This was my biggest hangover as a serious adult. Sitting there and talking about macroeconomic content for 45 minutes was an all-out massive effort.

But I also learned something, which kind of goes back to my martial arts days, college days, early work days, and goes back to various business memes. A common business meme is, “Most of success is just showing up.” Much of that is actually true, but I would rephrase it as, “Much of success is taking initiative, finding ways to show up, and then be consistent with quality."

You can’t, for example, be 10/10 in most interviews and then 2/10 in some interviews. You need to be 8/10 or better all the time. So, whether it came to my engineering work, my analysis work, my media work, etc. You just have to *fucking show up in good order* no matter what. Consistency of quality. Every single day. You traveled and had jet-lag during an important meeting? Tough. Your baby kept you up all last night? Well, you're paid the big bucks to tank that anyway. You got rekt in Atlantic City? Deal with it.

The first order advice here is don’t drink and party at clubs in Atlantic City the night before an interview or other serious work as a way to relieve an unusual amount of work stress during the prior months of over-work.

The second and probably more important and broad takeaway is about minimizing your weaknesses- when you do fuck up, be able to handle it. We all have moments of weakness. Success is about showing up with intention and quality. When it matters, you need to be there, present. You have to summon the strength to get through an hour about math and macro and sociability or whatever it is that you do, where you are half-dead, where your problems are only visible in your eyes, and just get it done.

I’m better now, but that was a low point. I was still running my research business, concentrating finishing-touches on a year-long book, and just literally working 80 hour weeks. Sometimes we need bursts of that sort of thing but it’s important to minimize it and get back to work/life balance, and ultimately when you are at your lowest, still find a way to be there.

Anyway, this is the current issue of "Nostr Real Thoughts". Enjoy the interview. Spot my failures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXujV7P_hZc&ab_channel=DavidLin

enjoyed the text, thanks

#proofofwalk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoGkX4RvZ38

complete sveltekit tutorial

#webdev #sveltekit

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

Before we start LARPing too much about how Nostr should take over the world and people should ditch other platforms, let’s acknowledge the fact that nostr:npub1wv79gfl4tn46qxs0vcr6kr73rqethvna0kchk4cw06mmdzsgrkdqmkxye0, one of the best MMA fighters of all time, is on Nostr. Most of you don’t follow her yet, even though she has been here for a while now.

I personally want to tell Cris, “thank you.” We appreciate her presence. There is no better proof of work than full-contact MMA.

In order for Nostr to grow, it can’t just be bitcoiner techies. It has to be others too. I personally really like the MMA people but more broadly, we should reach out to non-techie people and actually appreciate it when they decide to care about decentralized money and communication.

Thank you Cris, for caring about decentralization and proof of work.

Great words

tidal is not available in my country )

that's a sound idea, especially if you're in ukraine

I think people just go where the crowd goes. and since nostr doesn't have money for promotion, adaptation will be slow.

#proofofwalk