I think jobs will be reduced by AI automation instead of direct replacement. Let's analyze how this unstoppable trend will go in the coming decade.

Firstly, let's see what jobs are being reduced/replaced. After the pandemic, tons of phone answering, front desk, registration jobs are being automated. So it's easy to see that repetitive office/front jobs, or assistant jobs will be in the frontline to be greatly reduced. This may included many low end coder jobs. Another trend that is going is on request content creator jobs, AI arts which generated in seconds are getting more and more comparable to works that would take human artists days to complete.

Then we could see that, from a more general aspect, jobs that require a lot of human interaction and creativity will be very hard/impossible to be replaced. Due to the aging problem around the world, nursing and healthcare will the most sustainable jobs in the coming decade. Likewise, teachers, trainers and consultants will be hard to be replaced. Artist is a tricky topic, but it's easy to say that arts that abstract thoughts and ideas will always have a group of rich audiences. (Also for money laundry)

In addition, I think there are some jobs that will be tougher to be replaced than many people would anticipate. Number one is driver, self-driving tech is still very far away, not to mention it takes time for adaption and legislation. Factory assemble line jobs, especially for smartphone or other electric devices that is hard to be automated. No robotic hands/arms will be as cheap and as reliable as human.

我认为人工智能自动化将减少工作机会，而不是直接替代。让我们分析一下未来十年这种不可阻挡的趋势会如何发展。

首先，让我们看看哪些工作将被减少/替代。在疫情之后，大量的电话接听、前台、登记工作正在被自动化。因此很容易看出，重复的办公/前台工作或助理工作将是大幅减少的前线。这可能包括许多低端码农工作。另一个趋势是，请求低端创作者工作（即接委托，按需产出的创作者），几秒钟内生成的AI艺术作品越来越能与需要人类艺术家几天才能完成的作品相媲美。

然后我们可以从自动化可能性的角度来分析，需要大量人际互动和创造力的工作将非常难/不可能被替代。由于全球的老龄化问题，护理和医疗保健将是未来十年最具可持续性的工作。同样，教师、培训师和顾问将很难被替代。高端的艺术家是很难定义的，但可以抽象思想和观念的艺术作品将始终会拥有一群富有的观众。（还有用于洗钱的）

此外，我认为有些工作将比许多人预期的更难被替代。首先是司机，自动驾驶技术仍然非常遥远，更不用说需要时间来适应和立法。工厂组装线的工作，特别是对于难以自动化的智能手机或其他电子设备。没有机器人手/臂能够像人类那样廉价且可靠。

#AI #automation #future #prediction #job #career

Finally got to try bing AI chatbot, my overall experience is not impressed. Most of my search can be done in less than 5~10 seconds, 20 seconds top. If I am using voice assistant the whole experiences is even more seamless than typing. Bing still need around 10 seconds to search/crawl infos online, and another 10+ seconds to inference. (or it's a purposed latency to offload the system, but the user experience is slow)

With 20 seconds, if it's some general/popular topic, I can definitely find a proper introduction article and skim through the summary. Some easy optimizations/debuggings can be done, for example, when I ask to translate a paragraph, it would search the whole thing online first. Or when I said "translate what I said earlier", it would search "translate what I said earlier" and translate that sentence, or doesn't reply at all. Seems not even as smart(dumb?) as ChatGPT.

Maybe it's good for some questions which the information that's too scattered online, or the wording/keyword is difficult for current search engine. For example, "python code to concatenate two strings and remove all spaces in between."

Overall, I wouldn't expect anything useful to me until the chatbot system (not just the AI model) can figure out when it can answer my question without searching online first. And it doesn't need to scraw the whole world wide web when I just need to know the weather. Google and amazon probably has tons of API for some easy questions like this, AI chatbot should be able to leverage those. Or implement the whole system the other way around, only let AI chatbot handles the questions that current voice assistant can't handle.

终于有机会试试Bing AI聊天机器人，我的整体体验并不是很满意。我大部分的搜索都可以在5~10秒内完成，最多20秒。如果我用语音助手的话，整个体验就更无缝了。Bing 还需要大约10秒来搜索/爬取网上的信息，再加上10多秒来边跑神经网络推理边显示结果。（或者这是为了减轻系统负载而故意延迟，但用户体验就是很慢）

用20秒的时间，如果是一些普通/流行的话题，我肯定能找到一篇合适的介绍文章，并足够时间浏览一下摘要。不少简单的优化/debug可以做，比如当我要求翻译一段话时，它会先在网上搜索整个内容。或者当我说“翻译我之前说的”，它会搜索“翻译我之前说的”并翻译那句话，或者根本不回答。看起来甚至没有ChatGPT那么聪明（笨？）。

也许它对一些网上信息太分散，或者用词/关键词对当前搜索引擎来说很难的问题有用。例如, “python code to concatenate two strings and remove all spaces in between”

总的来说，除非聊天机器人系统（不仅仅是AI模型）能够明白哪些情况可以不搜索就能直接回答我的问题，否则我不指望它对我有什么用。让它回答天气，赛事等简短的问题的时候，它也没必要把整个互联网扒下来才能找到答案。Google和Amazon的AI bot能这么快回答一些简单的问题，应该是已经有很对对应的API了，AI chatbot想变得更有用，必须要应用上那些。或从另一个方向搞，只让现有的语音助手不能直接回答的时候才调用LLM的AI聊天机器人。

#AI #OpenAI #ChatGpt #Bing #Microsoft #Chatbot #Assistant

Eigenlayer propose a solution to the fractured trust on ETH's layer 2/ sidechains. Problem: In order to utilized the full trust of L1, L2s and sidechains need to deploy/prove (rollup) their apps on the EVM(Ethereum Virtual Machine). But that's not generally possible, such as data availability layers, oracles, new VMs, bridges and trusted execution environments. To build trust around those parts introduces new problems like: it's hard to build new decentralized trust networks; even it's built, the trust level will not be the same as L1/ETH/BTC; the new trust network will split away the value on the L1.

The idea of EigenLayer is to introduce a new layer between ETH and those problem modules. EigenLayer makes each one of these modules into a containers. ETH owner can stake their eth on one of these container to provide security and trust to it. In return, the container will payback in fees to those stakers. Basic structure as below:

Eth owner -- ETH main-net -----(restake to one of the container)---- EigenLayer ---(fees back to staker)--- Container(Modules needs trust/secruity)

View this from another aspect, it's like a open investment market for stakers to put their stakes on. I think this is very important, besides oracles, data availability is also a huge problem to a blockchain system without the involvement of another blockchain. And I have a lot of doubts for the storage solution like Arweave or Filecoin.

Although there are solutions like using zk proof of another chain's state to built trust towards that chain without any 3rd party involvement. But you still have to rely on the chain's own security/trust. To get everything done under the security of one chain is necessary for scaling up. (Targeting the problems EigenLayer propose to solve.) This also fits how I vision the decentralized future that only 1~3 main chains will dominant over 99% of the networks and traffics.

Honestly this sounds like a proof of stake and more modules version of co-mining to me, share some security resources of the main chain to the sidechain. It just makes sense.

Eigenlayer提出了解决ETH L2/侧链上分散的信任/安全问题的解决方案。现有的问题：为了充分利用L1的信任/安全性，L2和侧链需要在以太坊虚拟机(EVM)上部署/证明（rollup）其应用程序。但是这通常是不可能的，例如数据可用性（测试数据是不是真的安全地存放在L2上）、oracle、新的VM、桥 和 新的受信任的执行环境。在这些部分建立信任会引入新问题（最简单就是要发一条新链，不一定要新token），例如：很难建立新的去中心化信任网络；即使建立了，信任级别也远远赶不上L1/ETH/BTC；新的去中心信任网络将使L1上的价值/信任分裂。EigenLayer是在ETH和这些问题/模块之间引入一个新层。EigenLayer将每一个问题的模块都变成一个容器。ETH所有者可以在这些容器之一上押注他们的ETH，以为其提供安全性和信任度。作为回报，容器将向这些押注者支付费用。基本结构如下：

ETH所有者——ETH主网——（重新押注到一个容器）——EigenLayer——（回报费用到押注者）——容器（就是需要信任/安全性的模块）

从另一方面看，这就像一个开放的投资市场，供押注者对喜欢有潜力的模块进行押注，以获得回报。我认为这非常重要，除了预言机之外，数据可用性对于一个没有利用到其他区块链的 区块链系统 是一个巨大的问题。毕竟对于像Arweave或Filecoin这样的存储解决方案，我有很多疑虑。

虽然有其他解决方案，例如使用另一个链的zk证明状态来建立对该链的信任，而不需要任何第三方参与。但是仍然需要依赖该链的自身安全性/信任度。想要有效扩容，大部分的活都需要在一条链所形成的系统下解决。（其实就是EigenLayer提出要解决的那些问题）。这也符合我对去中心化未来的看法，即只有1~3条主链会占据99%的网络和流量。

老实说，这对我来说听起来像是一个 Proof of stake 和更模块化版的co-mining，共享主链的安全资源到侧链。相当符合主链扩容的直觉思路。

#EigenLayer #ETH #Layer2 #sidechain #coMining

然而，我觉得这些国家的永居权配不上1个比特币。

Eigenlayer propose a solution to the fractured trust on ETH's layer 2/ sidechains. Problem: In order to utilized the full trust of L1, L2s and sidechains need to deploy/prove (rollup) their apps on the EVM(Ethereum Virtual Machine). But that's not generally possible, such as data availability layers, oracles, new VMs, bridges and trusted execution environments. To build trust around those parts introduces new problems like: it's hard to build new decentralized trust networks; even it's built, the trust level will not be the same as L1/ETH/BTC; the new trust network will split away the value on the L1.

The idea of EigenLayer is to introduce a new layer between ETH and those problem modules. EigenLayer makes each one of these modules into a containers. ETH owner can stake their eth on one of these container to provide security and trust to it. In return, the container will payback in fees to those stakers. Basic structure as below:

Eth owner -- ETH main-net -----(restake to one of the container)---- EigenLayer ---(fees back to staker)--- Container(Modules needs trust/secruity)

View this from another aspect, it's like a open investment market for stakers to put their stakes on. I think this is very important, besides oracles, data availability is also a huge problem to a blockchain system without the involvement of another blockchain. And I have a lot of doubts for the storage solution like Arweave or Filecoin.

Although there are solutions like using zk proof of another chain's state to built trust towards that chain without any 3rd party involvement. But you still have to rely on the chain's own security/trust. To get everything done under the security of one chain is necessary for scaling up. (Targeting the problems EigenLayer propose to solve.) This also fits how I vision the decentralized future that only 1~3 main chains will dominant over 99% of the networks and traffics.

Honestly this sounds like a proof of stake and more modules version of co-mining to me, share some security resources of the main chain to the sidechain. It just makes sense.

Eigenlayer提出了解决ETH L2/侧链上分散的信任/安全问题的解决方案。现有的问题：为了充分利用L1的信任/安全性，L2和侧链需要在以太坊虚拟机(EVM)上部署/证明（rollup）其应用程序。但是这通常是不可能的，例如数据可用性（测试数据是不是真的安全地存放在L2上）、oracle、新的VM、桥 和 新的受信任的执行环境。在这些部分建立信任会引入新问题（最简单就是要发一条新链，不一定要新token），例如：很难建立新的去中心化信任网络；即使建立了，信任级别也远远赶不上L1/ETH/BTC；新的去中心信任网络将使L1上的价值/信任分裂。EigenLayer是在ETH和这些问题/模块之间引入一个新层。EigenLayer将每一个问题的模块都变成一个容器。ETH所有者可以在这些容器之一上押注他们的ETH，以为其提供安全性和信任度。作为回报，容器将向这些押注者支付费用。基本结构如下：

ETH所有者——ETH主网——（重新押注到一个容器）——EigenLayer——（回报费用到押注者）——容器（就是需要信任/安全性的模块）

从另一方面看，这就像一个开放的投资市场，供押注者对喜欢有潜力的模块进行押注，以获得回报。我认为这非常重要，除了预言机之外，数据可用性对于一个没有利用到其他区块链的 区块链系统 是一个巨大的问题。毕竟对于像Arweave或Filecoin这样的存储解决方案，我有很多疑虑。

虽然有其他解决方案，例如使用另一个链的zk证明状态来建立对该链的信任，而不需要任何第三方参与。但是仍然需要依赖该链的自身安全性/信任度。想要有效扩容，大部分的活都需要在一条链所形成的系统下解决。（其实就是EigenLayer提出要解决的那些问题）。这也符合我对去中心化未来的看法，即只有1~3条主链会占据99%的网络和流量。

老实说，这对我来说听起来像是一个 Proof of stake 和更模块化版的co-mining，共享主链的安全资源到侧链。相当符合主链扩容的直觉思路。

#EigenLayer #ETH #Layer2 #sidechain #coMining

Eigenlayer propose a solution to the fractured trust on ETH's layer 2/ sidechains. Problem: In order to utilized the full trust of L1, L2s and sidechains need to deploy/prove (rollup) their apps on the EVM(Ethereum Virtual Machine). But that's not generally possible, such as data availability layers, oracles, new VMs, bridges and trusted execution environments. To build trust around those parts introduces new problems like: it's hard to build new decentralized trust networks; even it's built, the trust level will not be the same as L1/ETH/BTC; the new trust network will split away the value on the L1.

The idea of EigenLayer is to introduce a new layer between ETH and those problem modules. EigenLayer makes each one of these modules into a containers. ETH owner can stake their eth on one of these container to provide security and trust to it. In return, the container will payback in fees to those stakers. Basic structure as below:

Eth owner -- ETH main-net -----(restake to one of the container)---- EigenLayer ---(fees back to staker)--- Container(Modules needs trust/secruity)

View this from another aspect, it's like a open investment market for stakers to put their stakes on. I think this is very important, besides oracles, data availability is also a huge problem to a blockchain system without the involvement of another blockchain. And I have a lot of doubts for the storage solution like Arweave or Filecoin.

Although there are solutions like using zk proof of another chain's state to built trust towards that chain without any 3rd party involvement. But you still have to rely on the chain's own security/trust. To get everything done under the security of one chain is necessary for scaling up. (Targeting the problems EigenLayer propose to solve.) This also fits how I vision the decentralized future that only 1~3 main chains will dominant over 99% of the networks and traffics.

Honestly this sounds like a proof of stake and more modules version of co-mining to me, share some security resources of the main chain to the sidechain. It just makes sense.

Eigenlayer提出了解决ETH L2/侧链上分散的信任/安全问题的解决方案。现有的问题：为了充分利用L1的信任/安全性，L2和侧链需要在以太坊虚拟机(EVM)上部署/证明（rollup）其应用程序。但是这通常是不可能的，例如数据可用性（测试数据是不是真的安全地存放在L2上）、oracle、新的VM、桥 和 新的受信任的执行环境。在这些部分建立信任会引入新问题（最简单就是要发一条新链，不一定要新token），例如：很难建立新的去中心化信任网络；即使建立了，信任级别也远远赶不上L1/ETH/BTC；新的去中心信任网络将使L1上的价值/信任分裂。EigenLayer是在ETH和这些问题/模块之间引入一个新层。EigenLayer将每一个问题的模块都变成一个容器。ETH所有者可以在这些容器之一上押注他们的ETH，以为其提供安全性和信任度。作为回报，容器将向这些押注者支付费用。基本结构如下：

ETH所有者——ETH主网——（重新押注到一个容器）——EigenLayer——（回报费用到押注者）——容器（就是需要信任/安全性的模块）

从另一方面看，这就像一个开放的投资市场，供押注者对喜欢有潜力的模块进行押注，以获得回报。我认为这非常重要，除了预言机之外，数据可用性对于一个没有利用到其他区块链的 区块链系统 是一个巨大的问题。毕竟对于像Arweave或Filecoin这样的存储解决方案，我有很多疑虑。

虽然有其他解决方案，例如使用另一个链的zk证明状态来建立对该链的信任，而不需要任何第三方参与。但是仍然需要依赖该链的自身安全性/信任度。想要有效扩容，大部分的活都需要在一条链所形成的系统下解决。（其实就是EigenLayer提出要解决的那些问题）。这也符合我对去中心化未来的看法，即只有1~3条主链会占据99%的网络和流量。

老实说，这对我来说听起来像是一个 Proof of stake 和更模块化版的co-mining，共享主链的安全资源到侧链。相当符合主链扩容的直觉思路。

#EigenLayer #ETH #Layer2 #sidechain #coMining

每天看看你发的英文内容预防老年痴呆。

听就算了，不带字幕的英文听力跟杀了我差不多🥲

Rare beef pho for dinner 🤌🤤

shor影响的是ecsda，但比特币基本盘是pow，其它都能解决，不见的比解决当年偷摸的长程攻击更麻烦，退一步讲，ecsda都不用shor威胁，自己都小毛病不断，shor之前估计就会被换掉。

比特币pow是软的，硬pow就是完全与能量挂钩，热一定律也就是能量守恒保证，那什么计算来了都没用。软pow本质是poe，由竞争后达成指定熵的最低能量决定，热二定律保证的，这个最低能量在理论上显然是有很大空间的，但受科技水平限制，充分竞争后趋近这个限制，这个限制本质就是能效hash/J。

假设量子sha256确实比经典算法优势（不一定），那么现在量子计算机的路线能提高的是hash/s，功率可是不保证的，也就是hash/J相比asic不见得一定有优势，再考虑到渐进替换的过程，量子计算机对于比特币大概率是个新款矿机，也就是说比特币的逻辑仍然讲的下去。但在往远就不好说了，前面说了这个最低能量空间确实很大。

当然以上的前提是通用量子计算机实现，它和受控热核聚变可是专业跳票。