Most market trends are lagging indicators, not predictors.
By the time most notice a pattern, the advantage is gone.
I started tracking inflection points before consensus forms.
Look for structural shifts in data that others dismiss as noise—that's where the asymmetric returns hide.
While others chase yesterday's momentum, quietly build positions at tomorrow's fault lines.
Edge comes from introspection, not consensus.
While everyone's networking and polling opinions, you're thinking alone.
That's where asymmetry lives.
Early days are for maximizing variance, not minimizing it.
Everyone optimizes for routine when they should optimize for upside.
The safe path teaches you to be comfortable and employable.
Your best moves happen when no one's watching.
Real edge comes from stepping away from the noise, not diving deeper into it.
While everyone's polling the group chat, you're alone with the actual problem.
That's where differentiation lives.
When your process fails, don't patch it.
Study why it collapsed.
Then rebuild from the lesson, not the wreckage.
That's the difference between incremental tweaks and structural advantage.
The shitcoin season has already started. This cycle’s shitcoins are the Bitcoin treasury companies.
Rote practices are other people's solutions to other people's problems.
Your process is built from your constraints, your data, your failures.
Every time you copy a framework, you inherit their blind spots and skip your own learning.
The operators who win build systems that fit their specific game.
Not because they're contrarian, but because generic solutions produce generic results.
Your edge comes from solving your exact problem in your exact way.
Early days force you to think in failure modes, not comfort zones.
Routine kills that edge.
The loudest voices online are usually the least profitable offline.
If they're loud they're selling you something.
Real operators don't announce, they execute quietly and let results speak.
I would stop taking advice from people whose systems I wouldn't steal.
The only opinions I trust are tested by price and process.
Everything else is just expensive noise.
Best practices are other people's solutions to other people's problems.
They codify what worked once, somewhere else, under different constraints.
Independent process means building your own map from your actual data, advantages, and constraints.
You iterate on your process, not someone else's playbook.
The market rewards originality of execution, not compliance with consensus.
While competitors copy yesterday's winning moves, you're building tomorrow's advantage.
Best practices make you predictable.
Independent process makes you unreachable.
Best practices are averages designed for masses.
Your process is a weapon built for your constraints.
Every cycle I watch operators copy frameworks that worked for different problems, different markets, different people.
Meanwhile the ones who built their own system from first principles are quietly eating everyone's lunch.
The meta-game isn't learning best practices.
It's building the process that generates your own.
Aqua and Fedi Bravo. 👍🏻
New post on the substack - Will the Bitcoin Halving be a sell-the-news event?
Finally, the monthly inside bar and up continues to play out so while we may see some profit-taking in the short term the best course of action remains to look at dips as buying opportunities for trend continuation.
#bitcoin
On the upside, we have the 38547 area which has some structure that is likely to be tested if we can break upwards.
So this is how I would draw the current BF on #BTC with some poor market structure around the 30000 area which is a reasonable area for a re-test.
Interestingly, the last time we had a momo-up on $BTC on the 3M chart was in Q4 2015, making that period the most analogous to our current cycle.
#Bitcoin chart update.
$BTC goes momo-up on the quarterly.
This is not an ideal scenario as it leaves behind some weak market structure that tends to get retested.
Anyone who chased the last couple of sessions will likely find themselves shortly underwater.
Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things.
#bitcoin
How it started, how it's going YTD.
The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out.
#Bitcoin
Watch $BTC last quarter's pivots carefully.
Will #Bitcoin break last quarter's high and go momo up?
Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024?
#trading
VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in.
Times like this are notable.
The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn't hold on to the gains.
Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up.
It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities.
So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately?
Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?
Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down.
USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up.
What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥
https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m
The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣
$BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play.
We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I'm watching to fill.
gm
$BTC seasonality continues to play out as noted previously, so I hope you loaded the boat on this dip.
Remember, when you see the crowd all leaning on one side of the boat, you need to lean the other way.
#trading #bitcoin
As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅
Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅
The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈
https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc
Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal.
A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play.
#Bitcoin #trading
Nice episode Stephan. 👍
One part that wasn't 100% clear to me is around the counterparty risk associated with the premiums collected from the market maker - Calypso?
When I sell a covered call option on Atomic Finance, where does the premium that the buyer pays me go? Is it locked in the DLC along with the collateral, or is it held somewhere else?
PSA -
Markets don't bottom on Fridays. 📉