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Nyoro~n
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#bitcoin 🧐 🇹🇼⚡

the universe feed scrolling constantly for hours now is pretty impressive

一點都不認真😤, 七十多年都還沒準備好,夢是多麼甜呀🙂‍↔️

90年代都還敢光明正大發飛彈過嚇人, 現在偷偷摸摸的弄斷海底電纜還被全世界看到

为什么我判断习近平大概率会攻打台湾?——基于多方面情报的综合分析

我的判断并非基于单一信息,而是综合法律、军事、经济、人口、国际局势等多个看似不相关的线索,得出的逻辑推理。以下是关键支撑点:

1. 习近平的历史野心和个人时间窗口

•   习近平已72岁,如果不在未来5年内完成“统一台湾”,他的健康和政治控制力都会衰退。

•   他希望在生前完成统一,以超越毛泽东,确保个人历史地位。

•   未来的接班人未必会继续推行武统政策,因此他需要在自己掌权期间完成。

➡ 时间不站在习近平这边,他必须尽早行动。

2. 中国已进入“战争准备模式”

中国在法律、军事、经济、社会宣传等方面,全面加强了“战时动员”:

(1)法律层面:全面动员全民进入战时模式

•   修订《国防动员法》《反间谍法》《预备役法》,赋予政府更大权力,可随时强制征召人力、物资、企业用于战争。

•   社会宣传开始进入“战争心理建设”模式,强化民众对台海冲突的接受度。

(2)军事层面:高强度军演+战时指挥中心

•   解放军在台海进行“常态化军演”,从模拟封锁、空袭,到海上包围,演习方式越来越接近实战。

•   在北京郊外建设大规模战时指挥中心,可作为台海战争的战略指挥枢纽。

(3)经济层面:确保战时供应链

•   最近习近平召集华为、比亚迪、宁德时代等企业家座谈,强调科技、能源、军工产业链必须自主可控,减少西方制裁影响。

•   关键物资储备(粮食、能源、半导体)显著增加,表明中国正在为可能的长期冲突做准备。

➡ 中国的“战时经济模式”已经启动,不是“口头上的统一台湾”,而是实际行动上的备战。

3. “时间窗口”:如果不快打,未来更难打

•   人口问题:出生率暴跌,兵源减少,未来战争动员难度会更大。

•   经济问题:中国经济下行,房地产危机严重,拖太久可能导致国内经济恶化,无法支撑战争消耗。

•   国际局势:

•   川普政府正在调整美国战略,但美军复苏需要时间,中国必须在美军完全恢复战备之前行动。

•   日本、菲律宾、澳大利亚正加强反华联盟,未来台海冲突的国际阻力会更大。

➡ 2025-2027年是解放军最佳攻击窗口,拖得越久,难度越大。

4. 日本已开始准备“台湾有事”难民接收计划

•   冲绳、宫古岛、鹿儿岛等地政府已经在为台海战争做难民接收演习。

•   日本防卫省高度关注,并开始调整军事部署。

•   日本的防卫政策已经默认“台海冲突高度可能发生”,这反映了国际安全圈对习近平可能行动的共识。

➡ 如果连日本地方政府都在做战争应对演习,台海冲突的可能性绝对不是空谈。

结论:习近平攻台是高度可能的现实,而不是理论上的可能性

1. 他本人时间不多,必须尽快完成统一。

2. 中国已经在法律、经济、军事上全面进入战时模式。

3. 拖得越久,人口、经济、国际局势都会变得更不利。

4. 中国周边国家已开始为台海战争做实际准备。

➡ 综合这些因素,习近平大概率会在2025-2027年间发动对台战争。

打台灣是夢想,打俄羅斯比較實際吧

trying out notedeck on my laptop, nice to get out of the browser

we get these in taiwan too 🫠

fisherman say these deep water fish show up right before or after earthquakes. could be that topologies shift in the deep sea causing them to freak out, who knows 🤷 big ones show up in the news, small ones at the market

where are they poisonous? are they being eaten? 😳

wall geckos can stay

delete the rest

weak to counterfeit and units can be confiscated and supply inflated at will? no thanks! 😇

Replying to Avatar JSTR

nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev started chat 127… this dude is so infuriating, self righteous, dismissive, and USES only argumentative fallacies…

I thought you did well Guy

I'm like an hour in right now........ I think I hurt myself rolling my eyes so much 🙄

the Patterson guy loves his conspiracies and hates running nodes 🤭

some other celebrations around the island (which arent nearly as cool as shooting fireworks at people) is the Yehliu Divine Harbor Purification Festival (野柳神明淨港). the brave souls jump into the cold ocean to clear out the ghosts and demons, these days it has even attracted tourists

this celebration is one of the "home-grown" traditions in Taiwan which originated when an intact unmanned ship floated into the harbor around 1820 after a bad storm, no one was onboard and among the effects on the ship was a statue of the ocean god. Puzzled but wary that bodies may start washing ashore, the villagers went to the nearby shrine to ask what to do.

a tradition was born to utilize the gods of the land to bless the harbor to ward off bad spirits and wandering ghosts. The remains of the ship was even made into parts of the shrine.

The celebration consists of bringing statues of the god into the water and then walk across fire on the way back (to scare off the bad spirits that might have hitched a ride in the water, duh 😂)

the mix of cultures in Taiwan makes lunar new year celebrations a lot of fun (and confusing). supernatural occurences made into traditions are a common occurence in Taiwanese culture

Replying to Avatar Nyoro~n

today is the 15th day of the Lunar New Year which is mostly known for the lantern festival, which is nice family gathering enjoying savory Tang Yuans (湯圓) and lantern decorations are seen in many spots. However in the south of Taiwan (Tainan) there is a peculiar tradition called the Yanshui Beehive Festival (鹽水蜂炮) that happens on this day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jPrpOxYcPE

On the day of the lantern festival, people gather around a bunch of fireworks that shoot outward into the crowd. Get hit by a firework and you have good luck for the year. It's crazy and super dangerous

This is a tradition brought over to Taiwan in the 19th century by Ming Rebels/Pirates as a loyalty test and rite-of-passage, somehow this tradition became one of "hey, if i get hit by a lot of fireworks at the start of the year, i'll have good luck!".

Taiwanese are weird sometimes 🤣

it's that time of year again (last day of lunar new year celebrations)

happy lantern festival, have some 湯圓s tonight!

nostr:nevent1qqsvpfc2n0aukfdx5qayltjzptmmyg5en7cljl8a4peuztu2fxa87uqpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgtczyqfcs0jqasd3js9x2ha8w6k46vmk26ngweukskvr3q2gh9m72e2s7qcyqqqqqqgwlu2v3

I use this idiom all the time, I learned in English school when I was a kid still in ESL using really old textbooks (books probably from the 60s)

By the time I got to college, every time I used this idiom with my friends they were like "what the hell does that mean?"

it's like no one uses this idiom.....

it itself is a flash in the pan 😮‍💨

the other day i got a new box of peanut butter egg rolls. i buy them every year to hand out as gifts and eat at home

"oh interesting! new packaging"

tastes the same (thankfully) but now 15% shorter 😮‍💨

ferroro-rocher started to include QR codes on their wrappers

"huh, thats strange.... wonder what this qr code is for"

it points to a page on how they're moving toward "more sustainable packaging.... why mess with the pacakaging? make these things bigger already 😡

fiat really does ruin everything

practice organizing thoughts by writing -- full blown notes or chicken scratch on a bar napkin

it all helps.

whenever you end up having to saything thoughts out loud, the practice helps

Replying to Avatar ODELL

I CAN'T BELIEVE BLUE CHECKS PAY FOR THIS NONSENSE