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Here are a few scenarios and assumptions.

1. Eight billion people (and growing) having self-custody and transacting on the Bitcoin Main Chain.

Not possible without major changes on the bitcoin rules and consensus. And making the change to accommodate the objectives is very likely to introduce network breaking bugs and exploits. No one can be certain how things can go wrong. And more realistically, we most likely will never get majority consensus to make such changes.

2. Most people WILL NOT want to self-custody.

If most people WILL NOT want to self-custody, taking the endeavour to change bitcoin consensus and protocols infrastructures and risking network breaking event is totally unjustify.

Can bitcoin still work without everyone taking self-custody and transacting on the main chain?

I would argue, yes.

Current adoption rate is low. No one have problems making on-chain txs and Lightning Network is NOT remotely near to congestions. Thereby, the problem is obviously not now.

What if adoption is high? We posit a scenario where majority of the world is on the bitcoin standard or moving towards the bitcoin standard. There will be thousands if not hundreds of thousands of bitcoin banks running their own Lightning Node, something like Wallet of Satoshi. Where there are many of these LN banks, they cannot really put a wall around it. LN can inter-operate. No one will use one that they cannot go in and out as they wish. Is it possible someone doing fractional reserve? Yes, but they can easily be found out and go out of business. Unlike traditional banks, an LN bank like WOS must have unrestricted in/out with every LN banks, else they will not survive. Countries will be running their own LN network. Private corporation will be running their own network and individuals will be running their own network, all inter-operable.

Liquid Bitcoin while have element of trust will still be there. There will always be element of trust but because Layer 2 is running on Bitcoin Layer 1, users can easily choose who to trust. Unlike now, if you are in any country, you have no choice but to trust the local nation state govt and their currencies. Because we have no choice and cannot opt out easily, that's where abuse, corruption and debasement cannot be mitigated.

Lot's of privacy tech is avail with different trust model. Ecash on Lightning can work in local communities and even global communities with very high privacy.

Imagine, in 20 years time, I cannot or will not self-custody, and I have 100,000,000 sats. I can literally spread them out to 1000 different entities of LN banks, Liquid and ecash banks, all inter-operable and all can easily move around fast and cheap. My wallet automatically manages the funds in the 1000 entities according to my preset percentages, risk of being rug-pulled or frozen by any entities are very low. That's because the 1000s of entities need to compete with each other. The moment any one entity attempt to cheat and being found out, they will go out of business.

The above possibilities are based on the assumption that functioning governments of any kind are in operation. If not, it doesn't matter the protocol changes, you may not have internet access. If functioning governments are competing with each other, and many of them holds bitcoin and therefore incentivised not to destroyed their own value, I think even the current structure of bitcoin layer 2 of Lightning, Liquid and Ecash can go very far. We have not even consider more Layer 2 infrastructure that will be designed. All these without messing with the Bitcoin Main Chain.

Yes, bitcoin is almost "perfect" money... Not 💯% perfect but compared to everything thing available, it is perfect.

It's perfect as a store of value as well as for medium of exchange.

It is not used as a medium of exchange, for now. That's because almost no one has an "moe" problem. We have a store of value problem.

I've seen a lots of post on X complaining that nostr:nprofile1qqsgydql3q4ka27d9wnlrmus4tvkrnc8ftc4h8h5fgyln54gl0a7dgspp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpxdmhxue69uhkuamr9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshkz7tkdfkx26tvd4urqctvxa4ryur3wsergut9vsch5dmp8pese6nj96 own companies have not enable Lightning or bitcoin payment. Were there any good reasons he advocate for MOE but does not practice them in his companies?

Lol.. best in your life but can't remember the name? The seller will be so sad

Or basically, a $5 wrench will no longer be able to separate you from your bitcoin.

Welcome to Nostr. It's great to see you guys. Follow me too.

Good thoughts from Javier Milei who got it from Milton Friedman:

The 4 ways people spends money:

1. You spend your money on yourself.

You know what you want and you do it carefully.

2. You spend your money on others, a gift.

You spend it to look good with as little as possible.

3. You spend others money on yourself.

You spend carelessly and wastefully on whatever you like.

4. You spend others money on other people.

The worst. You don't care and will never be efficient.

Replying to Avatar Gigi

GN

New day is dawning...

This stories about bitcoin on exchanges going low has been posted for years and yet, no exchanges ever runs out of bitcoin. Unless one is talking about ftx.

AI is getting smarter. Smarter in the sense they can call upon tonnes of data and collate them based on the experience of millions of people and their thoughts. AI does not have wisdom and their smartness is an appearance of intelligence.

But many people are getting dumber by assigning their critical thinking and evaluation to AI. Imagine these people asking AI who won a debate of 2 parties... Vance or Walts?

Rafizi Ramli vs Lim Sian See?

People have lost their collective minds. The reason for important issues be debated is so that you... yes you, can use your own mind to evaluate the position, rationale and coherence of arguments of both parties.

You are referring to buying the free range eggs?

Here is the linl: https://ayamlepaslenggeng.orderla.my/ayam-lepas-bebas

But if you wanna have it prepared as above, I can make for you personally if you visit me at my cafe at https://g.co/kgs/hvsuPH2

A new milestone from our small community of Bitcoiner Malaysia. Had a great meetup with Saifedean and Stephan to grace our event. Lots of fresh new insight into the world of bitcoin and what the future holds. All the signal, no noise and no shitcoining.

Looking back 15 years ago to ponder the future.

One of the bad normalization as a civilization happening to us is allowing groups of people to redefine long standing meaning of words.

Eg: Marriage is a committed union between a man and woman. Thereby there is no such thing as same sex marriage unless we allow people to redefine words. (this is not a commentary about how people chose to love anyone they wished or draw up contracts to govern their lives).

I would implore everyone NOT to call people subscribing to regressive value as Progressives. Let's call people who are regressive as Regressives.

We can debate if a particular view is indeed regressive or not. But please, stop calling regressive behavior as progressives.

Listen up. #Bitcoin is not scarce (for the majority).

Let me explain.

Bitcoin will not be scarce to most individuals because they won't care if it's held by a custodian or if they have control of their keys. This will keep real bitcoin prices suppressed.

Those who value self-custody can accumulate real bitcoin at a discount while the ignorant majority engages in a game of musical chairs.

The situation won't be much different from the current #fiat system, except for one crucial aspect: the possibility to opt-out. Bitcoin offers an alternative for those who want to escape the legacy financial system.

Most people will never care how their money operates, just like they don't care about the inner workings of their cars. Number go up, but it's mostly due to bitcoin being denominated in hyperinflating fiat currency rather than the immediate adoption of hard money standard.

We're unlikely to witness hyperbitcoinization during our lifetimes. So, take a breath and remember that bitcoin's path to widespread adoption will be gradual. Don’t worry about missing out on bitcoin before it "moons.”

Bitcoin's true value lies in its potential to disrupt the existing financial system, offering more control, security, and autonomy to individuals. Who even cares about the dollar price?

The concept of scarcity in bitcoin extends beyond its trade value. It's about having sovereignty over your finances and securing generational liberty.

In conclusion, bitcoin's scarcity for individuals will be determined by their time preference, level of awareness of and desire for self-custody.

Stop waiting for the rocket ship, stack in silence, wield your freedom… and build the moon.

Bitcoin can be NOT Bitcoin must be.

Anyone can use bitcoin NOT everyone can use bitcoin.

Bitcoin is for anyone NOT Bitcoin is for everyone.