TL;DR on Grayscale's win over the SEC today.

"The Commission failed to adequately explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale's proposed bitcoin ETP."

A recent meme has been “Nostr Lyn” where I am more raw here than anywhere else. I love that. Nostr is raw truth. Here is some meat for those willing to be here, purposely enjoying a decentralized and small protocol/community. No filter; just me.

I eat healthy, I exercise, I minimize problems, etc. I am one of those people who, when I first experimented with a keto diet nearly a decade ago, measured my ketones with a blood test on a regular basis to ensure I was in ketosis, and plotted out my blood sugar and ketone level on a regular basis, to see how it matched with my subjective well-being and various biometrics. I was doing science and various if/else observations. And now that I have experience in this dietary regard, both subjectively and biometrically, I am more flexible in terms of seasonal ketosis, broadly low carb, mild/moderate cheat meals at restaurants, and so forth. In other words, I precisely know my dietary limits where I feel bad vs where I feel good generally. I bike most days, and run and lift where possible. I enjoy a nice glass or two of wine with a nice meal on occasion, but little else.

But on those very rare occasions when I disregard moderation, well, fuck. “All things in moderation, including moderation. Sometimes you gotta party”. During the depth of my recent burnout phase in the past two weeks, I went out and… I ignored moderation one night in terms of wine and such. In terms of numbers, I only get hungover like once per year. I do, afterall, live near Atlantic City, which has plenty of clubs and so forth. I don’t even like marijuana, but I did marijuana too (which is legal in this state).

The next morning? Holy shit. I hadn’t been wrecked like that in a few years. Not only was it my yearly fuck-up, it was my multi-year fuck-up. It was a culmination of working 16-hour days with no weekends for months in a row and then the release all at once. My advice: don’t do that if you can help it. Especially if you are in your 30s or older, where you don’t heal as quickly as if you are in your 20s.

I had an interview with David Lin at like noon the next morning and my base case was to cancel it at the last minute due to how rekt I was. But I had *never* done that before, and Lin is an amazing interviewer and an acquaintance of mine, so I couldn’t do that to him, and I knew he could handle it if I was a bit lackluster. Tens of thousands of people would see this.

So, I rolled out of bed, drank some matcha, and somehow got myself in front of my camera to try to replicate what I would normally do every day with no issue. While I was doing it, I felt so off-base, thinking, “Anyone watching will know I’m so fucked right now that I’m like almost half-drunk from last night. This might be my worst interview ever. They’ll notice, right?”

I was almost afraid to go back and watch it. I only watch a small subset of my interviews for iteration purposes, but because this was my potential fuck-up, I went back and watched it closely. And you know what? In terms of views and comments and content, it was above average.

Probably it was because I was so mentally focused at the time to not fuck up. Where I lacked energy, I made up for in focus. I looked for signs in myself in my after-review, and the *only* place I can see it is in my eyes. I often squint during interviews because I am thinking a lot, but in this interview my eyes are constantly squinted/dead because I am barely able to even be there. That’s the only small sign where my multi-year fuckup hangover becomes apparent. All of my verbal content is normal, and leans above average.

After the interview, since I was non-functional, I went back to bed, and vowed not to fuck up like this again. This was my biggest hangover as a serious adult. Sitting there and talking about macroeconomic content for 45 minutes was an all-out massive effort.

But I also learned something, which kind of goes back to my martial arts days, college days, early work days, and goes back to various business memes. A common business meme is, “Most of success is just showing up.” Much of that is actually true, but I would rephrase it as, “Much of success is taking initiative, finding ways to show up, and then be consistent with quality."

You can’t, for example, be 10/10 in most interviews and then 2/10 in some interviews. You need to be 8/10 or better all the time. So, whether it came to my engineering work, my analysis work, my media work, etc. You just have to *fucking show up in good order* no matter what. Consistency of quality. Every single day. You traveled and had jet-lag during an important meeting? Tough. Your baby kept you up all last night? Well, you're paid the big bucks to tank that anyway. You got rekt in Atlantic City? Deal with it.

The first order advice here is don’t drink and party at clubs in Atlantic City the night before an interview or other serious work as a way to relieve an unusual amount of work stress during the prior months of over-work.

The second and probably more important and broad takeaway is about minimizing your weaknesses- when you do fuck up, be able to handle it. We all have moments of weakness. Success is about showing up with intention and quality. When it matters, you need to be there, present. You have to summon the strength to get through an hour about math and macro and sociability or whatever it is that you do, where you are half-dead, where your problems are only visible in your eyes, and just get it done.

I’m better now, but that was a low point. I was still running my research business, concentrating finishing-touches on a year-long book, and just literally working 80 hour weeks. Sometimes we need bursts of that sort of thing but it’s important to minimize it and get back to work/life balance, and ultimately when you are at your lowest, still find a way to be there.

Anyway, this is the current issue of "Nostr Real Thoughts". Enjoy the interview. Spot my failures.

Citadel Dispatch 102: Bitcoin is the Best Money with Adam Back and Jack Mallers

BLOCK: 791518

PRICE: 3734 sats per dollar

TOPICS: Good Money vs Bad Money, Early Bitcoin History, Onboarding the Next Billion People, Silk Road, Anti Fragility, Energy

FSI showing first signs of bottoming, BTCUSD up to now has been consolidating sideways against headwinds of FSI mean reverting (cooling off from overheated). Should see some fundamental tailwinds hear on in.

Also worth noting the volatility compression we have seen in the 4 weeks of sideways suggests the expected move should be decently big (much bigger than the recent 28k -> 30k move).

Note: Short timeframe forecasts has lower reliability than longer term macro readings.

This post only goes out to Nostr (not Twitter).