The Bettencourt Affair, a 2017 Netflix documentary, tells the backstory of the wealthiest woman in the world, Lilliane Bettencourt.
The intriguing plot includes tax evasion, swindlers, and other behaviors that often attend the super wealthy.
The low-grade intrigue aside, there is a higher-order lesson to be gleaned on wealth creation and preservation.
L’Oreal, the empire that made Bettencourt rich, grew its brand and product lines by attending to its core tenet: “research and innovation in the service of Beauty.”
By focusing on innovation, L’Oreal fueled a steady stream of cosmetics for the masses and wealth for the few, fortunate Bettencourts.
Bitcoin is similar.
Presenting as a new technology, a payments system, even a digital commodity, the Bitcoin network is more.
Bitcoin’s 15-year growth as a monetary network is tied to an innovative process grounded in physics.
By converting matter to energy, the Bitcoin network secures the world’s first global, scarce, decentralized, permissionless, open monetary network.
Satoshi leveraged science to create economic opportunity for the masses, NOT the few.
No other money, asset, or corporate founder can boast the same contribution.
BlackRock, Fidelity, and others are coming for their share.
Don’t wait for the documentary to come out on the most valuable asset in the world.
Get curious, get off zero. See our research and insights for more.
The Dukes may again have their day in the sun.
The 1983 social satire classic, Trading Places opens with the commodity-king maker Duke Brothers making a bet.
Can they educate homeless grifter Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy) to swap places with Harvard educated Louis Winthorpe (Dan Akroyd) to run their commodities empire.
The Dukes were betting on Nature or Nurture.
We are betting that the Orange Juice Futures are back, and so is Beaks.
Why?
Trading Places was written 2 years after interest rates started their 40+ year descent, ushering in the multi-decade bull run for banks and financial assets.
With the benefit of history and time, we see that commodities had their day in the sun, and bonds were the new leader.
Today, the low growth-Japanese players appear to see a turn in the market, again favoring commodities.
The reversal of fortune for bonds and commodities was October 1st 1981, the effective date of the Salomon Brothers purchase by commodity house Phibro.
This was the day after the UST 10 Year peaked 15.84%, starting a 40 year, 1550 basis point descent that inflated all manner of asset prices along the way.
Salomon was a sleepy bond house with bold trading strategies ranging from innovative to illegal, famously chronicled by Michael Lewis in 'Liar's Poker'.
But Salomon has gone the way of Louis' watch, sold to Citi, stacked in a warehouse of pawned financial assets of declining and ultimately unrealized value.
Citibank was envisioned to be a financial supermarket by Travelers CEO Sandy Weill and his protégé Jaime Dimon, to catch the wave of opportunity that declining interest rates provided.
But that wave has crashed, leaving today's Citi CEO, Jane Fraser, with the job of dismantling Sandy and Jaime's experiment.
Where banks are unwinding from a multi-decade binge of mergers, leverage and capital misallocation, commodities are reversing course.
Our graph shows the stock prices of Citi and US Steel Corp.
Both have underperformed since the global financial crisis, leaving us to ask, why Nippon would pay a 149% premium for the company?
And why Gold has punched to an all time high?
Why did Warren Buffet visit and re-invest in each of his five Japanese banks that traffic in commodities, to affirm his interest in the asset class.
Why are the BoJ and Bank of China (BoC) buying gold?
Are we entering a new investment paradigm?
Are Japanese companies and banks best situated to see the turn given their sensitivity to growth?
We think the answer is yes. An investment paradigm that involves, both hard assets like steel and gold, as well as digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Where Beaks had the wrong data on the orange juice crop reports, we see signal in an August 29th Federal Court decision that paves the way for a BTC spot ETF in the US and more.
For more, see our website, https://lnkd.in/e8KQ-YU9
Connecting the Tragedy of the Argentine Peso, ChatGPT & Bitcoin
October has held many momentous market selloffs.
This October stands out for a different reason.
Instead of momentous selloffs like we saw in 1929, 1987, 2008 and to a lesser degree in 2018, This October marked the emergence of a new investment paradigm.
In October, Bitcoin (+29%) outperformed the S&P 500 (-2.2%) by over 31%, marking its break as another risk asset as investors appreciate its place in the growing digital economy.
Last month, I cited disappointment with Janet Yellen's understatement of the U.S. Government's debt/ GDP, 98% vs. 120%. The exclusion of the inter agency borrowing is disingenuous at a minimum. Apparently Moody's agrees.
This past Friday, Moody's credit rating agency changed its outlook in U.S. Federal debt to negative from stable.
Per Moody’s,
“This is the new environment for rates. Our expectation is that these higher rates and deficits around 6% of GDP for the next several years, and possibly higher, means that debt affordability will continue to pressure the US.”
This NOT the death of the U.S. as a super power, but it does invite change.
Including the ability of the U.S.
to fund two wars as Janet Yellen asserted last month.
And investors are not waiting to see what this new paradigm of higher rates, and record levels of debt does mean for the economy, equities and bonds.
In Friday's report, we present some metrics that validate what we call the The Great Immigration to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Gone are the migratory behaviors of the tourists and scoundrels of 2021 - in their stead are immigrants that stay and build, e.g. BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark and before them firms like 3iQ.
And these firms are finding data to validate the build.
Spoiler Alert, both BTC and ETH have higher cash flow/ share (coin) than Visa, and Price / Book values that are more akin to NVIDIA and Microsoft than TradFi financial firms like JP Morgan and Visa.
Bitcoin's network functioning involves complexities that are beyond the metrics captured in a Price to Book ratio...but it is indicative of a legacy metric that incorrectly relays value in terms of tangible assets.
Back to the Signal of October.
The timing of our report, after October's performance distinction by BTC and as Moody's shifted its Outlook on U.S. Debt to negative is NOT serendipity, rather inevitable as we wrote here....
“The failure of SVB in March was a reminder that bank deposits can move in seconds, rendering a bank’s investment in bricks, mortar and centralized databases of limited utility.
Instead, we see the asset light, decentralized platforms that power BTC and ETH as the natural evolution in payments, settlements and the industry en masse.”
Full Report here:
A politically and economically compromised US fosters global instability.
In Friday’s piece we wrote about the linkage between the deteriorating economic state of G-10s and political instability.
IMO, this weekend’s attacks on Israel are another manifestation.
First Russia, now Hamas. More may be emboldened to acts of aggression given a hobbled / politically hamstrung US.
Gold and Oil gains follow the Mideast war playbook, but still muted, likely waiting for a more definitive US response and other indications of prolonged conflict.
For anyone in or near Charlottesville, VA this Thursday, please join
The Blockchain at the University of Virginia and me as we discuss how the integrity of Blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum can help restore economic and political stability by reducing monetary debasement and fostering financial inclusion to the unbanked at a time when our world needs it most.
See Friday’s publication, Dare to Live in Interesting Times, where we discuss the dangerous link between growing debt, monetary debasement and historic losses in treasury bonds to the growing political infighting within G-10 legislatures.
A politically and economically compromised US fosters global instability.
In Friday’s piece we wrote about the linkage between the deteriorating economic state of G-10s and political instability.
IMO, this weekend’s attacks on Israel are another manifestation.
First Russia, now Hamas. More may be emboldened to acts of aggression given a hobbled / politically hamstrung US.
Gold and Oil gains follow the Mideast war playbook, but still muted, likely waiting for a more definitive US response and other indications of prolonged conflict.
For anyone in or near Charlottesville, VA this Thursday, please join
The Blockchain at the University of Virginia and me as we discuss how the integrity of Blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum can help restore economic and political stability by reducing monetary debasement and fostering financial inclusion to the unbanked at a time when our world needs it most.
See Friday’s publication, Dare to Live in Interesting Times, where we discuss the dangerous link between growing debt, monetary debasement and historic losses in treasury bonds to the growing political infighting within G-10 legislatures.
The SBF trial will be quick given evidence of stolen client funds first picked up in early November 2022. A week before the FTX filing.
Coin desk, then Nansen followed by others. Including our team.
The twitter thread discusses more., including the fingerprints showing theft of client funds by FTX.
https://x.com/riskdimensions/status/1709216052154880298?s=46&t=50TTtvc_T94LAOpVo-GskQ
Fall is upon us.
And fall they did.
Like peas and carrots, Kelce and Swift appear quite the inseparable pair.
Another budding romance closer to financial markets appears to be Sam and Mike.
In the face of damning evidence and the flouting of banking basics (banks have runs, NOT exchanges) Michael Lewis appears to have fallen for, who some have dubbed, a Mr. Magoo meets Bernie Madoff grifter.
But this week it is the bond market that falls the hardest, and like Lewis, not for the better.
The below graph shows the MOVE Index, the ‘VIX’ for US treasury bonds.
When it spikes most all assets fall.
Not good as the recent move is Reminiscent of Q1 when rates rose, bonds fell and banks failed.
The MOVE Index reflects option volatility for US Treasuries. So the gauge is NOT linear, it is exponential more like a Richter scale for earthquakes. For the MOVE index, this exponential character arises from gamma associated with options.
What does this mean for investors today?
Monitor the MOVE Index.
Because a reading of 160 is multiples more disruptive than the 18 vol points of today’s 142 reading would imply.
This is why we believe a reading above 160 makes something ‘pop’ in the treasury market, prompting Fed intervention.
While true love and pooled insta followers may keep Travis and Taylor together for the season, a hawkish Fed and rising US rates may prompt the BoJ and BoC to send their US Treasuries packing.
With no love from other central banks that are too busy defending their own currencies, the Fed will truly be the buyer of last resort.
Bitcoin anyone? 
Endless Summer for BTC…as the Good Vibrations Continue.
Biggest News all Year for bitcoin. Period.
FASB published results from its comment period, indicating plans to implement the long awaited accounting change by 2025, making it more favorable for corporations to hold BTC.
Two major wins
1. Tangible from intangible asset recognition.
2. Fair Value from impaired asset valuation. This allows the corporation's balance sheet to enjoy the upside in price, which impaired treatment did NOT allow.
as it relates to WHEN it will be implemented, the report reflected preference from comment letter respondents...
"...that the transition time should be minimal, with 16 of those respondents specifically recommending an effective date that is no later than 1 year after the issuance of a final Update..."
Link to FASB release here;
Great news in a year when the 'good-news bar' has been set high, including...
1. Institutional demand: The deluge of spot BTC issuers in June (Blackrock, Feudality, Invesco, Ark) from managers with over $25 Trillion in AUM.
2. TradFi support for Coinbase: Many of these TradFi investors in turn showed unbridled support for Coinbase as their Surveillance Sharing Agreement (SSA) partner.
We note that Blackrock launched its ETF effort just two days after the SEC sued Coinbase on June 6th. We view the proximity of Blackrock's stealth Delaware filing on June 8th, ahead of its more public June 15th ETF filing as more than tacit support for Coinbase.
3. SEC loses court battle to Block a Spot BTC ETF . Last week's U.S. Appeals Court ruling denied the SEC's 'arbitrary and capricious' approach to denying a spot BTC ETF.
And then Today's FASB announcement.
Why is today's announcement from the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) potentially MORE impactful than the previous three?
Because corporations are a whole new category of buyer and changing the accounting treatment of bitcoin (BTC) to a tangible asset carried at fair value from a 'long lived intangible asset' carried as an impaired asset makes a BTC investment easier to carry, instead of punitive.
This accounting change eliminates the effective price cap placed on BTC, making it more attractive for all corporations, now carried at market value, instead of its lowest mark.
Potential implications for the SEC. Per the FASB website...
"The FASB is recognized by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as the designated accounting standard setter for public companies."
So FASB has upgraded BTC to the more standard and favorable 'fair value' treatment...the next question is WHEN will the SEC treat BTC in a standard way by allowing a spot BTC ETF in the U.S.
For more detail and context on the topic, I suggest you scroll through the below thread from our friend @jameslavish on Twitter. He has been following and writing about this specific topic for a while.
Well said KB. Hard to say AA was the reason.
My point was more about the manner of the engagement between government and the BTC opportunity, as it was civil, authentic and informative.
He is a standout.
Waiting for a regulated spot bitcoin ETF? Its already here.
A lot of headlines in the US around last week's U.S. Appeals Court decision that characterized the SEC's argument against a spot BTC ETF as 'arbitrary and capricious'. It was.
While the issue remains unresolved, the opportunity in bitcoin is only clearer for reasons shared here, https://lnkd.in/eewhFQjR
For those wondering if a spot BTC ETF exists in North America, it does, in Canada.
Canada provided a regulated spot BTC ETF years ago, well before the SEC dug their heels in against clear institutional and retail demand.
How did Canada get there first?
They did the work.
Canada's Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce sought out and engaged experts like Anthony Antonopoulos (AA) in true exploration on the topic over 10 years ago. See video here, https://lnkd.in/exzReRX9
For those that do not know Anthony Antonopoulos, think, Sergey & Brin, Milton Friedman and Michael Lewis rolled up into one.
Before FTX, before COVID’s policy response that fueled inflation, Canada laid the foundation that helped grease skids for firms like 3iQ to push bitcoin from opportunity to regulated reality for retail and institutions alike.
Statements from Antonopoulos' 2014 appearance in front of the Canadian Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce predicted both the side-show developments in crypto including the 'creation of coins by children (how old is SBF?), entertainers, and football teams', stating that 'most will hold just entertainment value, but some may assume greater value’ Antonopoulos' testimony danced between refreshing and shocking for its…
Civility.
AA and the Canadian Senate Committee engaged in true parliamentarian discourse. Questions on topics ranging from crypto currency and economics to technology were posed in pursuit of learning, and not the more familiar banter to 'score points', or make the other person ‘wrong’
Prescience.
AA predicted both Meme coins (Dogecoin?) and the dominance of just a few coins. Today, BTC and ETH represent approximately 72% of total digital asset market value.
Honesty.
Canadian Senate Banking Committee members sharing that Central banks change monetary theory every 20 or 30 years, asking why BTC's 'policy' would endure.
AA’s response was equally open, honest and by extension authentic, trustworthy and informative.
This engagement could have been a road map for the US, but the SEC and certain US. Senators and Representatives appear to have chosen obstinance over discovery.
As a result, Canada and now Europe and the UK are leapfrogging the US as it relates to clarity for developers and businesses to advance this growing technological and economic opportunity.
Why wait?
Waiting for a regulated spot bitcoin ETF? Its already here.
A lot of headlines in the US around last week's U.S. Appeals Court decision that characterized the SEC's argument against a spot BTC ETF as 'arbitrary and capricious'. It was.
While the issue remains unresolved, the opportunity in bitcoin is only clearer for reasons shared here, https://lnkd.in/eewhFQjR
For those wondering if a spot BTC ETF exists in North America, it does, in Canada.
Canada provided a regulated spot BTC ETF years ago, well before the SEC dug their heels in against clear institutional and retail demand.
How did Canada get there first?
They did the work.
Canada's Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce sought out and engaged experts like Anthony Antonopoulos (AA) in true exploration on the topic over 10 years ago. See video here, https://lnkd.in/exzReRX9
For those that do not know Anthony Antonopoulos, think, Sergey & Brin, Milton Friedman and Michael Lewis rolled up into one.
Before FTX, before COVID’s policy response that fueled inflation, Canada laid the foundation that helped grease skids for firms like 3iQ to push bitcoin from opportunity to regulated reality for retail and institutions alike.
Statements from Antonopoulos' 2014 appearance in front of the Canadian Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce predicted both the side-show developments in crypto including the 'creation of coins by children (how old is SBF?), entertainers, and football teams', stating that 'most will hold just entertainment value, but some may assume greater value’ Antonopoulos' testimony danced between refreshing and shocking for its…
Civility.
AA and the Canadian Senate Committee engaged in true parliamentarian discourse. Questions on topics ranging from crypto currency and economics to technology were posed in pursuit of learning, and not the more familiar banter to 'score points', or make the other person ‘wrong’
Prescience.
AA predicted both Meme coins (Dogecoin?) and the dominance of just a few coins. Today, BTC and ETH represent approximately 72% of total digital asset market value.
Honesty.
Canadian Senate Banking Committee members sharing that Central banks change monetary theory every 20 or 30 years, asking why BTC's 'policy' would endure.
AA’s response was equally open, honest and by extension authentic, trustworthy and informative.
This engagement could have been a road map for the US, but the SEC and certain US. Senators and Representatives appear to have chosen obstinance over discovery.
As a result, Canada and now Europe and the UK are leapfrogging the US as it relates to clarity for developers and businesses to advance this growing technological and economic opportunity.
Why wait?
Waiting for a regulated spot bitcoin ETF? Its already here.
A lot of headlines in the US around last week's U.S. Appeals Court decision that characterized the SEC's argument against a spot BTC ETF as 'arbitrary and capricious'. It was.
While the issue remains unresolved, the opportunity in bitcoin is only clearer for reasons shared here, https://lnkd.in/eewhFQjR
For those wondering if a spot BTC ETF exists in North America, it does, in Canada.
Canada provided a regulated spot BTC ETF years ago, well before the SEC dug their heels in against clear institutional and retail demand.
How did Canada get there first?
They did the work.
Canada's Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce sought out and engaged experts like Anthony Antonopoulos (AA) in true exploration on the topic over 10 years ago. See video here, https://lnkd.in/exzReRX9
For those that do not know Anthony Antonopoulos, think, Sergey & Brin, Milton Friedman and Michael Lewis rolled up into one.
Before FTX, before COVID’s policy response that fueled inflation, Canada laid the foundation that helped grease skids for firms like 3iQ to push bitcoin from opportunity to regulated reality for retail and institutions alike.
Statements from Antonopoulos' 2014 appearance in front of the Canadian Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce predicted both the side-show developments in crypto including the 'creation of coins by children (how old is SBF?), entertainers, and football teams', stating that 'most will hold just entertainment value, but some may assume greater value’ Antonopoulos' testimony danced between refreshing and shocking for its…
Civility.
AA and the Canadian Senate Committee engaged in true parliamentarian discourse. Questions on topics ranging from crypto currency and economics to technology were posed in pursuit of learning, and not the more familiar banter to 'score points', or make the other person ‘wrong’
Prescience.
AA predicted both Meme coins (Dogecoin?) and the dominance of just a few coins. Today, BTC and ETH represent approximately 72% of total digital asset market value.
Honesty.
Canadian Senate Banking Committee members sharing that Central banks change monetary theory every 20 or 30 years, asking why BTC's 'policy' would endure.
AA’s response was equally open, honest and by extension authentic, trustworthy and informative.
This engagement could have been a road map for the US, but the SEC and certain US. Senators and Representatives appear to have chosen obstinance over discovery.
As a result, Canada and now Europe and the UK are leapfrogging the US as it relates to clarity for developers and businesses to advance this growing technological and economic opportunity.
Why wait?
Bitcoin’s success does not depend on an ETF.
But the wealth and financial independence of many people does.
An ETF can be a natural first step to owning your own BTC in cold storage.
Training wheels to self sovereignty.
Blockworks piece below includes comments from our 3iQ research team, Zack’s research, and Grayscale’s (issuer of GBTC) legal head on why Grayscale’s chances of benefiting from a spot BTC ETF differ from the other filers such as Ark, Fidelity and BlackRock.
….and it’s gone
S&P downgrades the credit ratings of 5 banks including Comerica and Keycorp.
Not surprising given the equity 47.33 price for Comerica’s equity is the same at is was in 1997, and Keycorp’s $10.87 price is the same as it was in 1991.
Dead money for 25 and 32 years respectively, save for the dividends.
It appears that Moody’s and now S&P feel that if you could not get your financial house in order as rates went from 20% to zero…you aren’t going to.
A few theories on BTC’s sharp sell-off, but no smoking gun.
In our opinion, it was a good old fashioned unwind by managers getting incrementally longer as volatility collapsed to a 5 year low.
And more leveraged as measured by the outsized long BTC futures open interest. Be it hedge funds or other active managers. There was a brief, but swift flush to $24,200.
What does this mean for BTC? Very little in the medium and longer run as it is growing pains.
We think the macro picture (see Friday's publication, https://lnkd.in/esS9hVFj
...is bleak in the medium term, timing is a coin toss, but with skewed results as we share below.
It is a likely Heads, BTC wins (No Fed intervention, but more deficit spending by the US and G-10 Treasuries, and Tails, Banks/ TradFi loses as it relates to the level of interest rates.
Heads, BTC wins, refers to more debt funding, driving investors to a sound monetary protocol as the Treasury relies on deficit spending to keep teh economy running.
Tails Banks/ TradFi losses refers to the likely impact of persistently higher rates on credit losses for banks and the potential for more internvention.
Even with the U.S. Treasury continuing to be a deficit spender despite an advertised full employment of 3.5% unemployment (oops, don't look at the dismal participation rates)...eventually, the Fed will cut rates.
Bizarre that banks have failed in 2023 with a robust projected 5% Q3 GDP print for US, and a US Treasury that still manufactures a tailwind by running a budget deficit of ~5.5% of GDP.
What will it look like if we hit a recession, or get more bank failures. We like our odds with BTC's defined money supply, growing network and utility.
A few theories on BTC’s sharp sell-off, but no smoking gun.
In our opinion, it was a good old fashioned unwind by managers getting incrementally longer as volatility collapsed to a 5 year low.
And more leveraged as measured by the outsized long BTC futures open interest. Be it hedge funds or other active managers. There was a brief, but swift flush to $24,200.
What does this mean for BTC? Very little in the medium and longer run as it is growing pains.
We think the macro picture (see Friday's publication, https://lnkd.in/esS9hVFj
...is bleak in the medium term, timing is a coin toss, but with skewed results as we share below.
It is a likely Heads, BTC wins (No Fed intervention, but more deficit spending by the US and G-10 Treasuries, and Tails, Banks/ TradFi loses as it relates to the level of interest rates.
Heads, BTC wins, refers to more debt funding, driving investors to a sound monetary protocol as the Treasury relies on deficit spending to keep teh economy running.
Tails Banks/ TradFi losses refers to the likely impact of persistently higher rates on credit losses for banks and the potential for more internvention.
Even with the U.S. Treasury continuing to be a deficit spender despite an advertised full employment of 3.5% unemployment (oops, don't look at the dismal participation rates)...eventually, the Fed will cut rates.
Bizarre that banks have failed in 2023 with a robust projected 5% Q3 GDP print for US, and a US Treasury that still manufactures a tailwind by running a budget deficit of ~5.5% of GDP.
What will it look like if we hit a recession, or get more bank failures. We like our odds with BTC's defined money supply, growing network and utility.
A few theories on BTC’s sharp sell-off, but no smoking gun.
In our opinion, it was a good old fashioned unwind by managers getting incrementally longer as volatility collapsed to a 5 year low.
And more leveraged as measured by the outsized long BTC futures open interest. Be it hedge funds or other active managers. There was a brief, but swift flush to $24,200.
What does this mean for BTC? Very little in the medium and longer run as it is growing pains.
We think the macro picture (see Friday's publication, https://lnkd.in/esS9hVFj
...is bleak in the medium term, timing is a coin toss, but with skewed results as we share below.
It is a likely Heads, BTC wins (No Fed intervention, but more deficit spending by the US and G-10 Treasuries, and Tails, Banks/ TradFi loses as it relates to the level of interest rates.
Heads, BTC wins, refers to more debt funding, driving investors to a sound monetary protocol as the Treasury relies on deficit spending to keep teh economy running.
Tails Banks/ TradFi losses refers to the likely impact of persistently higher rates on credit losses for banks and the potential for more internvention.
Even with the U.S. Treasury continuing to be a deficit spender despite an advertised full employment of 3.5% unemployment (oops, don't look at the dismal participation rates)...eventually, the Fed will cut rates.
Bizarre that banks have failed in 2023 with a robust projected 5% Q3 GDP print for US, and a US Treasury that still manufactures a tailwind by running a budget deficit of ~5.5% of GDP.
What will it look like if we hit a recession, or get more bank failures. We like our odds with BTC's defined money supply, growing network and utility.
A few theories on BTC’s sharp sell-off, but no smoking gun.
In our opinion, it was a good old fashioned unwind by managers getting incrementally longer as volatility collapsed to a 5 year low.
And more leveraged as measured by the outsized long BTC futures open interest. Be it hedge funds or other active managers. There was a brief, but swift flush to $24,200.
What does this mean for BTC? Very little in the medium and longer run as it is growing pains.
We think the macro picture (see Friday's publication, https://lnkd.in/esS9hVFj
...is bleak in the medium term, timing is a coin toss, but with skewed results as we share below.
It is a likely Heads, BTC wins (No Fed intervention, but more deficit spending by the US and G-10 Treasuries, and Tails, Banks/ TradFi loses as it relates to the level of interest rates.
Heads, BTC wins, refers to more debt funding, driving investors to a sound monetary protocol as the Treasury relies on deficit spending to keep teh economy running.
Tails Banks/ TradFi losses refers to the likely impact of persistently higher rates on credit losses for banks and the potential for more internvention.
Even with the U.S. Treasury continuing to be a deficit spender despite an advertised full employment of 3.5% unemployment (oops, don't look at the dismal participation rates)...eventually, the Fed will cut rates.
Bizarre that banks have failed in 2023 with a robust projected 5% Q3 GDP print for US, and a US Treasury that still manufactures a tailwind by running a budget deficit of ~5.5% of GDP.
What will it look like if we hit a recession, or get more bank failures. We like our odds with BTC's defined money supply, growing network and utility.
This is why we need to support NOSTR