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100satsaday
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| ₿itcoin full node runner. | ₿eliever of decentralization. | All notes are my own opinions, not financial advice, not AI generated.

I agree on this part. My question was does bitcoin wage deflate (in number of sats) or not? What do you think

CBDC will kill the need of batch transaction from credit cards and LOC will replace the loan part: may be why Visa and MasterCard are so desperate. They are basically L2 of legacy fiat currency, old and expensive.

All investments are predictions, not all predictions are investments.

Professional politicians don’t need certificates to practice. What exactly makes them professional? Honest question 🤔

When population collapses #Pension, the greatest ponzi game will fail. I can’t imagine any other outcome. Although not sustainable, population can only grow to make financial system functional.

The bigger it is, the slower it changes.

What AI/robots/automation don’t have is liability, imagine putting a robot into jail. Scarce and vulnerability are power of life. If one day AI took all jobs it will still be the human onsite overseeing it held liable.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

The downside could be more obvious punishment to non progressors. In a deflationary world everything deflates including people’s salaries if they don’t improve. I don’t think most people are ready for that. In fiat world the punishment is hidden in inflation.

Why everyone prefers stainless steel appliances while accepting shit internal parts. I would prefer steel or even plastic enclosure to trade for 5 more years of service life. Clearly consumers suck. What can fix this?

The fact so many companies are suddenly pushing RTO tells one thing: it is not job seekers’ market now.

What has eth to do with bluesky?

Some interesting data here, a new way of economy rating is coming up.

https://climateactiontracker.org