**Fitch Downgrades France To AA-, Cites Civil Unrest As Risk For Macron's Reform Agenda**
Fitch Downgrades France To AA-, Cites Civil Unrest As Risk For Macron's Reform Agenda
Macron's not-so-secret ambitions for France to supplant AAA-rated Germany as Europe's superpower took a nosedive on Friday when rating agency Fitch downgraded the eurozone’s second-largest economy one notch to AA- (with a stable outlook) late on Friday night over concerns that social unrest and political paralysis following the pensions fight will limit government efforts to improve public finances.
**“Political deadlock and (sometimes violent) social movements pose a risk to Macron’s reform agenda and could create pressures for a more expansionary fiscal policy or a reversal of previous reforms,**” Fitch wrote.
Fitch had rated France AAA until July 2013, when it downgraded it to AA+, and then to AA in Dec 2014.
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The move is another blow to Macron only weeks after his government enacted a long-promised and much-hated pension reform to raise the retirement age by two years to 64, despite months of street protests, stiff resistance in parliament and ongoing strikes.
The president’s party does not have a parliamentary majority and may struggle to deliver on other priorities such as boosting employment and cutting fiscal deficits while improving public services such as schools.
According to the FT (https://www.ft.com/content/6027589e-90fd-4fb1-a3a7-d6bd29bdb704), Fitch also echoed our own assessment when it said the government’s use of a constitutional tactic known as Article 49.3 to pass the unpopular pension reform without a parliamentary vote could **“further strengthen radical and anti-establishment forces” in French politics.**
Similar to the US downgrade by S&P in 2011 over the debt ceiling fight, which sparked a witch hunt of the rating agency by minions of the then Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, the French government was also terribly vexed by this particular case of truthiness about France's economic outlook, and Finance minister Bruno Le Maire, who recently presented the government plan to bring deficits back in line with EU targets by 2027, said France remained committed to structural reforms while explaining why Fitch was wrong.
“This decision is the result of a pessimistic assessment by Fitch regarding France’s growth prospects and its debt trajectory,” Le Maire said in a statement.
“It underestimates the consequences of the structural reforms adopted in the last few months by the French government, \[notably\] the reforms on unemployment insurance, pensions and production taxes.”
Fitch expects France to have a fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP this year due to weaker growth and higher expenditure linked to inflation, up from 4.7% in 2022. It forecasts that it will then fall back again next year as measures to help households with bills during the energy crisis are phased out; in reality this was a concession by the rating agency, and what will really happen is that deficits will keep ballooning higher.
While France’s economy barely grew by 0.2% in the first three months of the year despite the strikes, inflation also rose in April to 5.9% year on year.
France’s “ **fiscal metrics are weaker than peers”,** Fitch wrote, warning that its government debt when measured as a proportion of economic output would “remain on a modest upward trend, reflecting relatively large fiscal deficits and only modest progress with fiscal consolidation”.
The credit rating agency expects pressures on spending to remain high in the short term as **a third of all spending - largely on social benefits and pensions - is indexed to inflation.** However it said that the savings generated by the pension reform, expected to total €17.7bn by 2030, will be “moderately helpful” over the longer term.
It also forecast inflation in France will ease in the second half of this year, averaging 5.5% for the year before dropping to 2.9% in 2024.
Le Maire has repeatedly underlined the need to cut public debt because interest rate rises have caused annual debt servicing costs to balloon.
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As reported previously, France has been rocked by months of protests and strikes against the pension reform since January. Many smaller scale protests continue and labor unions plan to hold a large protest march on May 1.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Sun, 04/30/2023 - 07:35
**Poland Seizes Russian School, Kremlin Vows Retaliation For "Blatant Violation"**
Poland Seizes Russian School, Kremlin Vows Retaliation For "Blatant Violation"
Moscow is furious after on Saturday Polish police reportedly **raided a Russian school attached to the Russian embassy in Warsaw and took it over**. School staff were then given hours to pack up their things and vacate the building, according to RIA Novosti, following local authorities bursting into the grounds using a crow bar.
Polish Foreign Ministry spokesman Lukasz Jasina said the state was enforcing a court ruling over the building building which says it was **"illegally leased by the Russian embassy for years."** Thus Poland is asserting that the building and school isn't protected under diplomatic status, which Moscow disputes.
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_Locals accused the embassy of running a spy ring out of the high school._ (
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Russia’s foreign ministry blasted the "hostile actions" of Polish authorities which are a **"blatant violation"** of official Russian diplomatic property.
"Such an impudent step by Warsaw, which goes beyond the framework of civilized interstate communication, will not remain without our harsh reaction and consequences for the Polish authorities and Poland’s interests in Russia," the ministry stated (https://www.rt.com/russia/575535-russian-responds-poland-school/).
"We view these new hostile actions of the Polish authorities as a flagrant violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and **an attempt against Russian diplomatic real estate in Poland**," it continued.
"Official Warsaw has been violating the law for many years: international legislation, bilateral agreements, domestic legislation. Behaves defiantly and unlawfully. What can be described in one word – **provocation**," the ministry said, vowing a severe response.
> Employees of the school at the Russian embassy in Poland, which was raided and seized by Polish police today, packing their things to the tune of "Farewell of Slavianka" pic.twitter.com/sjCD0KGGqL (https://t.co/sjCD0KGGqL)
>
> — Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 29, 2023 (https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1652275208206667777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
But Polish foreign ministry spokesman Lukasz Jasina retorted that Warsaw authorities are fully within their rights and are enforcing Polish law.
"Our opinion, which has been confirmed by the courts, is that this property belongs to the Polish state and was taken by Russia illegally," he said.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Sat, 04/29/2023 - 17:30
**Russian Next-Gen T-14 Tank Makes Ukraine Debut**
Russian Next-Gen T-14 Tank Makes Ukraine Debut
While Western nations are working to upgrade Ukraine's ground game with US M-1 Abrams and German Leopard 2 tanks, **Russia has now introduced its latest-generation tank into the war in Ukraine**, according to Russia's state-owned _RIA_ (https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20230425/tank-1867488222.html).
The new Russian tank is the **T-14 Armata**, which features **an unmanned turret**, with a three-man crew operating the vehicle from what _RIA_ describes as an "isolated armored capsule located at the front of the hull." The tank has a maximum highway speed of 50 miles per hour.
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?itok=v9jPozRY)**A T-14 Armata on Tverskaya Street in Moscow before a Victory Day parade**(TASS vis (?itok=v9jPozRY)_Daily Mail_ (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12010121/Russias-new-T-14-Armata-battle-tank-debuts-Ukraine-RIA.html))
It's equipped with a **125mm smoothbore main gun** with a reported range of 8 kilometers. The gun is fed by an automated loader with a 45-round capacity, and can also fire laser-guided missiles (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12010121/Russias-new-T-14-Armata-battle-tank-debuts-Ukraine-RIA.html).
On defense, it has both **reactive armor** that explodes outward upon a projectile's impact, and an **"active protection system" (APS)**, which _BBC_ (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40083641) has described as "essentially an anti-missile system for tanks, with radars capable of tracking the incoming anti-tank missile, and projectiles that are launched to disrupt or destroy it." The T-14 is additionally distinguished (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12010121/Russias-new-T-14-Armata-battle-tank-debuts-Ukraine-RIA.html) from predecessor T-90 tanks by having higher ground clearance.
A developer also claimed (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12010121/Russias-new-T-14-Armata-battle-tank-debuts-Ukraine-RIA.html) the tank would have technology to hide it from radar- and heat-seeking targeting systems: **"We essentially made the tank invisible."** _RIA_ reports the deployed T-14s have received "additional side protection from anti-tank ammunition."
Until now, **T-14 appearances have been largely limited to a series of Moscow Victory Day parades** stretching all the way back to 2015, though _RIA_ says they have been "tested in Syria."
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?itok=-EPk2mf5)**T-14 Armata tanks traverse Moscow's Red Square at the 2020 Victory Day parade** (Host Photo/Evgeny Biyatov via (?itok=-EPk2mf5)_Reuters_ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-new-t-14-armata-battle-tank-debuts-ukraine-ria-2023-04-25/))
**Why has it taken so long for this supposed cutting-edge weapon to appear in Ukraine?** Especially where military procurement is concerned, it turns out the Russians aren't so different from the United States.
"Eleven years in development, **the \[T-14 Armata\] programme has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems,**" the British military said (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-new-t-14-armata-battle-tank-debuts-ukraine-ria-2023-04-25/) in January.
> Tank T-14 platform "Armata" pic.twitter.com/91TPWP2Rth (https://t.co/91TPWP2Rth)
>
> — Spriter (@Spriter99880) April 25, 2023 (https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1650833702371356672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
The initial order called for 2,300 of them to be delivered by 2020. However,the UK claims **"production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle** in combat," and suggested its introduction in Ukraine may largely be for propaganda purposes. Of course, that jab may itself be propaganda.
Lending some credence to the claim of commander hesitancy, _RIA_'s source says Russia is proceeding gradually with using the T-14 in Ukraine:"Russian troops have begun to use the latest Armata tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions. **They have not yet participated in direct assault operations."**
Meanwhile, **Ukrainians are slated to begin 10 weeks of training (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-expediting-abrams-del…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russias-newest-tank-makes-ukraine-debut
**"We Simply Don't Have The Ammo" - Polish General Says Can No Longer Supply Ukraine, Warns Russia Has Resources To Continue War**
"We Simply Don't Have The Ammo" - Polish General Says Can No Longer Supply Ukraine, Warns Russia Has Resources To Continue War
Speaking at a strategy session of the National Security Bureau, the Polish Armed Forces chief of staff General Rajmund Andrzejczak (https://rmx.news/poland/poland-is-becoming-key-nato-leader-on-mainland-europe-claims-top-military-general/) said that when he analyzes the war in Ukraine politically, he is pessimistic.
This is, he explained, because _**“there is nothing that indicates that Russia will lack the resources to continue the conflict.”**_
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He said during the session that he did not feel sanctions would stop Russia from having the funds to continue the war.
The general also offered a bleak assessment of Poland’s ability to send ammunition to Ukraine.
> _**“We simply don’t have the ammunition. Our industry isn’t ready to send the equipment to Ukraine and to maintain our own dwindling reserves,”**_ he said.
He noted that he was tirelessly presenting such an analysis in order to raise awareness.
He continued his remarks by saying that _**“war is not the business of soldiers.”**_
**It is rather “a question of politics with economic factors** involving finance, infrastructure, technology, food, and a range of other problems that you have to figure into the equation to be able to understand it.”
Gen. Andrzejczak observed that _**“Ukraine is experiencing huge financial problems,”**_ despite the huge aid packages it was receiving from the U.S., the West and Poland.
Gen. Andrzejczak told the National Security Bureau that he regarded the security situation facing Poland as highly dangerous. Asked if the leaders of the West appreciated how far Ukraine is from winning the war with Russia, he opined that **“an honest assessment of the threats was still both a surprise and a shock for most of them.”**
The general also said there was no indication that Ukrainians who fled their country would return home to start reconstruction, adding that he felt that the NATO summit in Vilnius will be “a summit to define our credibility, of NATO, and the whole of the West.”
If the response was “late” and lacking in determination, then Ukraine would have no chance of a secure future.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Sat, 04/29/2023 - 07:00
**Escobar: De-Dollarization Kicks Into High Gear**
Escobar: De-Dollarization Kicks Into High Gear
_Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,_ (https://thecradle.co/article-view/24080/de-dollarization-kicks-into-high-gear)
**_The US dollar is essential to US global power projection. But in 2022, the dollar share of reserve currencies slid 10 times faster than the average in the past two decades..._**
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**It is now established that the US dollar’s status as a global reserve currency is eroding (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-global-reserves-china-euro-russia-ukraine-war-greenback-2023-4).** When corporate western (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollarization-started-odds-chinas-yuan-020938603.html) media begins (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/economic-and-political-factors-behind-acceleration-of-de-dollarization.html) to attack (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-13/the-dollar-rules-the-world-now-and-for-the-foreseeable-future) the multipolar world’s de-dollarization narrative in earnest, you know the panic in Washington has fully set in.
The numbers: the dollar share of global reserves was 73 percent in 2001, 55 percent in 2021, and 47 percent in 2022. The key takeaway is that last year, the dollar share slid 10 times faster than the average in the past two decades.
Now it is no longer far-fetched to project a global dollar share of only 30 percent by the end of 2024, coinciding with the next US presidential election.
**The defining moment – the actual trigger leading to the Fall of the Hegemon – was in February 2022, when over $300 billion in Russian foreign reserves were “frozen” by the collective west, and every other country on the planet began fearing for their own dollar stores abroad. There was some comic relief in this absurd move, though: the EU “can’t find” (https://www.intellinews.com/the-eu-can-t-find-most-of-russia-s-300bn-of-frozen-reserves-271253/) most of it.**
Now cue to some current essential developments on the trading front.
Over 70 percent of trade deals between Russia and China now use either the ruble or the yuan, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
Russia and India are trading oil in rupees. Less than four weeks ago, Banco Bocom BBM became the first Latin American bank to sign up as a direct participant of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which is the Chinese alternative to the western-led financial messaging system, SWIFT.
China’s CNOOC and France’s Total signed their first LNG trade in yuan via the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange.
The deal between Russia and Bangladesh for the construction of the Rooppur nuclear plant will also bypass the US dollar. The first $300 million payment will be in yuan, but Russia will try to switch the next ones to rubles.
Russia and Bolivia’s bilateral trade now accepts settlements in Boliviano. That’s extremely pertinent, considering Rosatom’s drive to be a crucial part of the development of lithium deposits in Bolivia.
Notably, many of those trades involve BRICS countries – and beyond. At least 19 nations have already requested to join BRICS+, the extended version of the 21st century’s major multipolar institution, whose founding members are Brazil, Russia, India, and China, then South Africa. The foreign ministers of the original five will start discussing the modalities of accession for new members in an upcoming June summit in Capetown.
**BRICS, as it stands, is already more relevant (https://thecradle.co/article-view/23848/brics-set-to-surpass-g7-in-economic-growth#:~:text=The%20G7%20is%20expected%20to,%2C%20the%20US%2C%20and%20Indonesia.) to the global economy than the G7.** The latest IMF figures reveal that the existing five BRICS nations will contribute 32.1 percent to global growth, compared to the G7’s 29.9 percent.
With Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico as possible new members, it is clear that key Global South players are starting to focus on the quintessential multilateral institution capable of smashing Western hegemony.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) are working in total sync (https://thecradle.co/article-view/23919/putin-and-mbs-discuss-opec-brics-cooperation) as Moscow’s partnership with Riyadh in OPEC+ metastasizes into BRICS+, in parallel to the deepening Russia-Iran strategic partnership.
**MbS has willfully steered Saudi Arabia toward Eurasia’s new power trio Russia-Iran-China (RIC), away from the US (https://thecradle.co/article-view/24025/the-historic-us-saudi-relationship-cannot-bounce-back).** The new game in West Asia is the incoming BRIICSS – featuring, remarkably,…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-de-dollarization-kicks-high-gear
**How Smart Is ChatGPT?**
How Smart Is ChatGPT?
ChatGPT, a language model developed by OpenAI, has become incredibly popular over the past year due to its ability to generate (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/generative-ai-explained-by-ai/) human-like responses in a wide range of circumstances.
In fact, ChatGPT has become so competent, that students are now using it to help them with their homework. This has prompted several U.S. school districts (https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-schools-colleges-ban-plagiarism-misinformation-education-2023-1?op=1) to block devices from accessing the model while on their networks.
So, how smart is ChatGPT?
In a technical report (https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) released on March 27, 2023, OpenAI provided a comprehensive brief on its most recent model, known as GPT-4. Included in this report were a set of exam results, whichVisual Capitalist's Marcus Lu and Rosey Eason (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-smart-is-chatgpt/) visualized in the graphic above.
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GPT-4 vs. GPT-3.5
To benchmark the capabilities of ChatGPT, OpenAI simulated test runs of various professional and academic exams. This includes SATs, the bar examination, and various advanced placement (AP) finals.
Performance was measured in **percentiles**, which were based on the most recently available score distributions for test takers of each exam type.
Percentile scoring is a way of ranking one’s performance relative to the performance of others. For instance, if you placed in the 60th percentile on a test, this means that you scored higher than 60% of test-takers.
The following table lists the results that we visualized in the graphic.
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_The scores reported above are for GPT-4 with visual inputs enabled. Please see OpenAI’s technical report for more comprehensive results._
As we can see, GPT-4 (released in March 2023) is much more capable than GPT-3.5 (released March 2022) in the majority of these exams. It was, however, unable to improve in **AP English** and in **competitive programming**.
Regarding AP English (and other exams where written responses were required), ChatGPT’s submissions were graded by “1-2 qualified third-party contractors with relevant work experience grading those essays”. While ChatGPT is certainly capable of producing adequate essays, it may have struggled to comprehend the exam’s prompts.
For competitive programming, GPT attempted 10 Codeforces contests 100 times each. Codeforces hosts competitive programming contests where participants must solve complex problems. GPT-4’s average Codeforces rating is 392 (below the 5th percentile), while its highest on a single contest was around 1,300. Referencing the Codeforces ratings page (https://codeforces.com/ratings), the top-scoring user is _jiangly_ from China with a rating of 3,841.
What’s Changed With GPT-4?
Here are some areas where GPT-4 has improved the user experience over GPT-3.5.
Internet Access and Plugins
A limiting factor with GPT-3.5 was that it didn’t have access to the internet and was only trained on data up to June 2021.
With GPT-4, users will have access to various plugins (https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-plugins#browsing) that empower ChatGPT to access the internet, provide more up to date responses, and complete a wider range of tasks. This includes third-party plugins from services such as Expedia which will enable ChatGPT to book an entire vacation for you.
Visual Inputs
While GPT-3.5 could only accept text inputs, GPT-4 has the ability to also analyze images. Users will be able to ask ChatGPT to describe a photo, analyze a chart, or even explain a meme.
Greater Context Length
Lastly, GPT-4 is able to handle much larger amounts of text and keep conversations going for longer. For reference, GPT-3.5 had a max request value of 4,096 tokens, which is equivalent to roughly 3,000 words. GPT-4 has two variants, one with 8,192 tokens (6,000 words) and another with 32,768 tokens (24,000 words).
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 23:20
**We Should Really Be Having More Kids**
We Should Really Be Having More Kids
_Submitted by Jack Raines via Young Money (https://www.youngmoney.co/p/really-kids),_
In 27 BC, Caesar Augustus was crowned the first Roman emperor. Widely considered one of Rome’s greatest leaders, Augustus’s reign marked the beginning of the 200-year _Pax Romana._
One reason that the Roman Empire flourished during this time was its first-class transportation and sewage infrastructure that supported densely-populated cities, with Rome itself boasting an estimated one million residents at its peak.
However, these population centers were also susceptible to epidemics, disease, and lead poisoning ( _lead was commonly used in pipes, eating utensils, and even food and drinks_), yielding high infant mortality rates and low life expectancies (maximum ~33 years).
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**Low life expectancy + expansive territories meant that the Roman Empire needed high birth rates to maintain enough soldiers to defend its borders, and Rome struggled to keep its birth rates above the population replacement rate.** This issue was so important that Augustus offered tax breaks (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2ZhY3RzYW5kZGV0YWlscy5jb20vd29ybGQvY2F0NTYvc3ViMzY5L2l0ZW0yMDc3Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT13d3cueW91bmdtb25leS5jbyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPXJlZmVycmFsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj13ZS1zaG91bGQtcmVhbGx5LWJlLWhhdmluZy1tb3JlLWtpZHMiLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoiNjQzZmMwMzQtY2E1MS00ZTQwLWIxOWMtZGNmNDI1YTFmNTU3IiwicHVibGljYXRpb25faWQiOiJiMzFmYTA4Yy1jMTE0LTQyYzctYmUzZi05YmUyNjA2Y2ZmMzIiLCJ2aXNpdF90b2tlbiI6ImVlNjhjOTJjLWMxYjYtNDJjNi1hMmExLThiOWQ1NmI3MGMwYSIsImlhdCI6MTY4MjYwNzg4My40MjQsImlzcyI6Im9yY2hpZCJ9.KPXIunJSohxwvA_GuBUikVuKaWam7cGDUhVxgf9kxOk) for large families and cracked down on abortion and adultery because he believed that “ _too many men spent their energy with prostitutes and concubines and had nothing for their wives, causing population declines._”
But government efforts never succeeded in meaningfully increasing birth rates.
At the conclusion of the _Pax Romana_, low birth rates, combined with plague and war, wreaked havoc on Rome’s population, and the power structure of the empire shifted to the newer Constantinople. Rome never recovered, with the city’s population dwindling (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2VuLndpa2lwZWRpYS5vcmcvd2lraS9IaXN0b3J5X29mX1JvbWU_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.zf5Z5Eewd07HVBPqIqx2iaj3rBxd_anBai96TmlHwhk) from a peak of 1,000,000 residents in the late second century to ~30,000 by 600 AD.
We humans draw parallels and analogies across time and space because they help us better understand the world around us, and no two Western civilizations have attracted more comparisons than the Roman Empire and the United States of America.
Both nations experienced explosions of wealth and eras of unprecedented peace, both nations were the dominant global powers of their respective eras, and today, the US faces the same issue that plagued Rome 2,000 years ago: _declining birth rates._
In _The Sun Also Rises_, Hemingway penned this now timeless exchange:
> _“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, and then suddenly.”_
Ernest Hemingway: _The Sun Also Rises_
We worry about global warfare and pandemics because they’re big and scary and sudden and could wipe us out with a sudden **BANG!** But the real existential threat, declining birth rates, will progress like Mike’s bankruptcy: _gradually, and then suddenly_.
Allow me to demonstrate through some basic arithmetic.
~2.1 children per woman is the typical population replacement rate in a developed country, and the US currently has a total fertility rate ( _which measures the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age_): of 1.84 (https://flight.beehiiv.net/v2/clicks/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy5jaWEuZ292L3RoZS13b3JsZC1mYWN0Ym9vay9maWVsZC90b3RhbC1mZXJ0aWxpdHktcmF0ZS9jb3VudHJ5LWNvbXBhcmlzb24_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT13d3cueW91bmdtb25leS5jbyZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPXJlZmVycmFsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj13ZS1zaG91bGQtcmVhbGx5LWJlLWhhdmluZy1tb3JlLW…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/we-should-really-be-having-more-kids
**Majority Of US States Have 'Stand Your Ground' Laws**
Majority Of US States Have 'Stand Your Ground' Laws
**After a series of highly publizised shootings (https://www.statista.com/topics/1287/firearms-in-the-us/) in the U.S. (https://www.statista.com/topics/760/united-states/), Stand Your Ground laws - also called Shoot First laws - are back in the news.**
Data by the Giffords Law Center (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjv562_nMr-AhX0SPEDHc88DfQQFnoECBcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiffords.org%2Flawcenter%2Fgun-laws%2Fpolicy-areas%2Fguns-in-public%2Fstand-your-ground-laws%2F&usg=AOvVaw2eQna_OrWX7fQF6wDzIqCM)shows that these type of laws are common across U.S. states.
(https://www.statista.com/chart/29872/stand-your-ground-laws-us-states/)
_You will find more infographics at Statista (https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/)_
As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, (https://www.statista.com/chart/29872/stand-your-ground-laws-us-states/) they specify that **people are allowed to use deadly force if they feel like their life or health is threatened in a public place without needing to try to retreat.**
According to Giffords, U.S. law largely agrees that this is also the case for private property, for example if a homeowner feels threatened by an intruder. In several more states that don't have Stand Your Ground laws - including California, Illinois, Oregon and Washington - precedents exist that could influence how an assault, manslaughter or murder case goes after a trial has started (while in Stand Your Ground states, police could decide to not bring any charges based on these laws).
_On April 13, (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/us/stand-your-ground-laws-states.html) Black teenager Ralph Yarl was shot by a homeowner after going to the wrong address in Kansas City and was seriously injured. Andrew D. Lester, a 84-year-old white man, was charged with assault in the first degree._
_On April 17, Kaylin Gillis, a 20-year-old white woman, was fatally shot in upstate New York after the car she was riding in went into a wrong driveway. The shooter, 65-year-old Kevin Monahan, was charged with murder._
_In another case where public area Stand Your Ground laws could apply, two cheerleaders were shot and wounded in Texas after one of them accidentally got into the wrong car in a supermarket parking lot after their practice onApril 18. (https://www.npr.org/2023/04/19/1170823978/texas-cheerleaders-shot-car-parking-lot-practice) However, the subject - 25-year-old Pedro Tello Rodriguez Jr. - has been charged with deadly conduct, meaning he used a weapon recklessly, threatening, or dangerously._
**While in all three cases, charges have been brought, Stand Your Ground laws as well as laws pertaining to private property - also referred to as Castle Doctrine laws or Make My Day laws - could still influence these cases and could theoretically see charges dropped or cases won for the defendants.**
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However, in the Kansas City case, the prosecuter has said he does not see the necessary pre-condition of threatening behavior and self-defense fulfilled when Ralph Yarl was shot through the door of the home. In the New York state case, the county's sheriff was quoted as saying (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/nyregion/man-charged-kaylin-gillis-driveway-shooting.html) that “there was no reason for Mr. Monahan to feel threatened, especially as it appears the vehicle was leaving.” While no such info was available on the third case, the subject is reported to have followed the two women to their car before shooting, likely exceeding the limits of Stand Your Ground legislation. What remains is the question how perceived rights under these types of laws and doctrines influence shooters' seemingly erratic behavior following what could be considered everyday mix-ups.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 22:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/majority-us-states-have-stand-your-ground-laws
**Armstrong: Kamala's Affair - Sleeping Her Way To The Top**
Armstrong: Kamala's Affair - Sleeping Her Way To The Top
_Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,_ (https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/kamalas-affair-sleeping-her-way-to-the-top/)
Since the media is shining a light on Trump’s affair, it is only fair to point out similar actions taken by those on the other side of the aisle. Kamala Harris is not a particularly intelligent or charismatic individual, but she managed to work her way to the top by dating men in positions of power. **In the 1990s, 29-year-old Kamala Harris dated married 60-year-old San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown** (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8623781/Kamala-Harris-affair-San-Franciscos-black-mayor-Willie-Brown.html). Harris was 31 years younger than Brown, who was married with a family at home.
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Harris accompanied Brown on his campaign trail and made connections along the way. She cannot deny the affair and claims that it is now “an albatross hanging around my neck.” Clinton used to call Brown “the real Slick Willie” for his playboy ways, which is saying something coming from blue dress Bill. “The measure of his flamboyance is he’ll go to a party with his wife on one arm and his girlfriend on the other,” James Richardson, a reporter for the Sacramento Bee told People Magazine in 1996.
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_New San Francisco mayor Willie Brown points out his new hat “Da Mayor” as he claimed victory Tuesday night, December 12, 1995, while at his victory party in San Francisco. (CONTRA COSTA TIMES/JON MCNALLY)1995_
**Kamala Harris secured a job at the California Medical Assistance Commission (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/politics/kamala-harris-launched-political-career-with-120k-patronage-job-from-boyfriend-willie-brown) through Slick Willie,** although she had no medical background.
He also appointed her to the state’s Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board.
**She was later appointed as the district attorney in San Francisco in 2004.**
Meanwhile, Slick Willie was under investigation for gifting his friends city contracts. He never came under fire for promoting Harris to positions of power.
But by then, Harris was on her way to becoming attorney general and did not need the support of her older married boyfriend.
> _**“His career is over. I will be alive and kicking for the next 40 years. I do not owe him a thing,”**_ Kamala shrewdly stated.
Still, Brown assisted her in her 2016 bid for the Senate and spoke favorably of her over the years.
**Harris refuses to acknowledge that her time as Slick Willie’s mistress is what propelled her career.**
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**Brown is not remaining quiet.**
> _“I may have influenced her career by appointing her to two state commissions when I was Assembly speaker. And I certainly helped with her first race for district attorney in San Francisco. I have also helped the careers of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and a host of other politicians. The difference is that Harris is the only one who, after I helped her, sent word that I would be indicted if I ‘so much as jaywalked’ while she was D.A. That’s politics for ya.”_
But it is (D)ifferent!
**And that, folks, is how the leading world power found its second-in-command with absolutely no qualifications for the job.**
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 22:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/armstrong-kamalas-affair-sleeping-her-way-top
**JPMorgan, PNC To Buy First Republic After FDIC Seizure First Leaves Taxpayers Holding The Toxic Stuff**
JPMorgan, PNC To Buy First Republic After FDIC Seizure First Leaves Taxpayers Holding The Toxic Stuff
_**Update (2210ET)**_: As the weekend begins, the WSJ reports late on Friday that big banks including JPMorgan and PNC are set to buy First Republic Bank but not in a private, market-arranged deal but rather in a transaction that would follow a government seizure of the troubled lender. A seizure and sale of First Republic, which would wipe out the equity of FRC and potentially impose losses on creditors, could come as soon as this weekend, the WSJ sources said.
And so JPM, which is already the largest US bank is about to get even bigger, by scooping up all the good FRC assets while leaving US taxpayer holdings on to the toxic ones.
That said, it wasn't immediately clear whether the $30 billion in deposits funneled by JPM and other banks into FRC will be treated as insured funds (why _**should**_ they should be insured?), nor was it clear how a wipeout of this capital, which would spark a systemic crisis simply because the Fed is now running policy of " **monetary tightening through bank collapse"**, having failed to contain inflation and tighten policy using conventional means.
\\* \\* \\*
_**Update (1640ET)**_: As many expected given the intraday collapse of FRC, Reuters reports after the bell that **The FDIC will imminently the bank into receivership.**
> First Republic most likely headed for FDIC receivership - CNBC https://t.co/9HT5s9Yoqj (https://t.co/9HT5s9Yoqj)pic.twitter.com/FRenLK8juh (https://t.co/FRenLK8juh)
>
> — Reuters (@Reuters) April 28, 2023 (https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1652050174313656321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
Shares collapsed to a $1 handle in the after hours trading, down 70% on the day...
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**FRC was trading at $120 at the start of March... and now it's trading close to $1.20...**
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...Aaaaand it's gone...
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\* \* \*
**Update (1045ET)**: First Republic Bank shares are halted for volatility having collapsed 50% back to record lows as hopes of a 'private' deal fade...
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Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers criticized Washington regulators and US banking giants for not having already figured out a solution for the beleaguered lender First Republic Bank.
> _“I’m surprised and disappointed that this situation has continued to linger as long as it has, with the bank’s stock down 95%” and credit gauges deteriorating, Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin._
>
> _“I hope that between the banks, the FDIC, the other public authorities, that the best way forward will be found within the next week or 10 days.”_
_**“These are things like forest fires, it is much easier to prevent them than it is to contain them after they start to spread,”**_ Summers said.
He didn’t offer a preference for either an FDIC takeover or “some private sector oriented” workout.
> _“But we need to figure out the answer to that question as quickly as possible and move on.”_
Imagine the deposit outflows occurring today!
'The question now is simple - _**will they make it to the close without the FDIC stepping in?**_
\* \* \*
The First Republic farce rolls on...
After reporting dramatically worse deposit outflows (and aggregate banking system flows suggesting things are getting worse, not better in April), The FT (https://www.ft.com/content/818c44cb-0612-47c7-8b6f-3f5e1c38f009) reports that there had been **a shift in tone among the First Republic Bank’s advisers compared with Tuesday and Wednesday** when First Republic's shares fell 65 per cent and fears grew that it was close to being taken over by the FDIC.
**The conversations about the bank reportedly remain fraught,** and the people cautioned that it was not clear that a solution would be found.
The **banks are reluctant to put their shareholders at risk of losses without some sort of government participation.**
**https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-republic-shares-rise-reports-rescue-talks
**Trapped Americans In Sudan "Shocked & Disgusted" - Left By Biden To Fend For Themselves**
Trapped Americans In Sudan "Shocked & Disgusted" - Left By Biden To Fend For Themselves
**Update(1302ET):** Sudan is continuing to **stare into the abyss of full-blown civil war** as the battle for control of the capital of Khartoum between two rival generals - now reaching the two week mark - results in a mounting death toll. Currently, dozens of countries have for days been racing to get their citizens out via military transport planes, ships, and via cross-border land routes into Ethiopia and neighboring countries, **but not the United States**.
A surprisingly blunt report voicing intense criticism toward the Biden administration has been issued by CNN Friday, which writes (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/americans-sudan-us-government/index.html), "As the crisis in Sudan continues to unfold, there is **mounting anger among Americans who feel abandoned by the US government** and left to navigate the complicated and dangerous situation on their own."
CNN further points out that robust evacuation efforts are underway by many other countries. As we detailed below, a C-130 evac flight sent by Turkey even took on small arms fire while landing outside the capital. And the Chinese government has said it has successfully evacuated at least 1,300 of its nationals thus far, with state media confirming (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289826.shtml) evacuation operations ongoing by "land and sea".
"I am incredibly **shocked and disgusted** by the American lackluster response to the health and safety of their citizens," Muna Daoud told CNN, whose parents were forced to exit via Port Sudan to Saudi Arabia. And CNN follows with this (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/americans-sudan-us-government/index.html):
> _Despite a number of nations evacuating their citizens, the US government has continued to say that the conditions are not conducive to a civilian evacuation. All US government personnel were evacuated in a military operation (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/22/politics/us-diplomatic-personnel-sudan/index.html) this weekend. US officials have said they are in “close communication” with US citizens and “actively facilitating” their departure from Sudan._
>
> _However, CNN spoke with multiple people whose family members are among the “dozens” of Americans who want to leave Sudan, and they said the **State Department has provided “barely any assistance”** since the deadly violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out more than a week ago._
Another American stuck in Sudan called the embassy and State Department **"useless"**. "To be honest with you, the State Department was useless, utterly useless throughout this entire period," a man named Imad said in an interview. "We expected the Department to provide some kind of guidance, but the guidance was the template, just shelter in place, no critical information being provided."
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_SCPM: Most Chinese citizens in Sudan have been evacuated or are in the country’s ports pending transfer, China’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. Image: Weibo_ (
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Already two American have lost their lives. CNN further presents that more are coming close to getting shot in near-miss situations due to the lack of formal US effort to get citizens safely out:
> _“The might of our military and resources does not get used to save our lives in war zones,” she said._
>
> _When CNN spoke to Daoud, her 69-year-old father and 66-year-old mother – both of whom are US citizens – were making the “harrowing” nine hour bus journey from Khartoum to Port Sudan._
>
> _“They had to find a bus this morning after waiting outside on the side of the road,” she said. Daoud said that the bus had been stopped three times by RSF soldiers “and at one checkpoint they held my father at gunpoint because they believed he was in the Sudanese Army.”_
>
> _**“They told all the men to step off the bus and searched and questioned them,” but they kept her father at gunpoint**, she described to CNN._
>
> _“My mum believed he was going to be taken or shot. Luckily they decided to let him go,” Daoud said._
Meanwhile, Chinese media pundits are mocking and gloating...
> Where is he? https://t.co/m3jVxdhWPP (https://t.co/m3jVxdhWPP)pic.twitter.com/Vx7RCGJRJ6 (https://t.co/Vx7RCGJRJ6)
>
> — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin\_GT) April 28, 2023 (https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1651961156855271425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
China's Foreign Ministry has confirmed it is sending the PLA Navy to help evacuate Chinese nationals from Sudan, with defense ministry spokesman Tan Kefei announcing Thursday (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkish-evacuation-plane-comes-under-attack-sudan
**Biden DOJ: Kids have A Constitutional Right To Puberty Blockers**
Biden DOJ: Kids have A Constitutional Right To Puberty Blockers
_Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary (https://technofog.substack.com/p/biden-doj-kids-have-a-constitutional?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=274771&post_id=117714030&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email) (emphasis ours),_
**The Biden Administration has a new and unhinged constitutional theory: the 14th Amendment protects the right of a child to take puberty blockers.** Bans on hormone treatments for children with gender dysphoria, such as the prescription of testosterone to a transgender 12 year-old, violate the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause.
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That’s the Administration’s position in _LW v. Skrmetti (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-challenges-tennessee-law-bans-critical-medically-necessary-care)_, a lawsuit filed in a Nashville, Tennessee federal court by the families of three transgender children – a fifteen year-old transgender daughter (who thought he was transgender at age 12), a fifteen year-old transgender son, and a twelve year-old transgender son. They’re challenging a new Tennessee law that “establishes prohibitions related to the performance on minors of certain medical procedures related to gender identity, creates private causes of action for violations, and establishes additional penalties for violations.”
The families of these transgender kids allege that **the Tennessee law (1) violates the 14th Amendment’s equal protection clause** by targeting the transgender; (2) **violates the right of parental autonomy guaranteed by the 14th Amendment’s due process clause**; and (3) that **the law is preempted by the Affordable Care Act, which prohibits discrimination “on the basis of sex.”**
All the children are “currently receiving medical care” that would be prohibited by the recent Tennessee legislation.
What is this medical care? The 15 year-old transgender “girl” – born a male – is currently undergoing estrogen hormone therapy so that his body will “undergo feminine pubertal changes.” The 15 year-old transgender “boy” who was born a girl came out as transgender around the 5th grade. She is on testosterone.
The 12 year-old transgender “boy” – born a female – was diagnosed with gender dysphoria _**in the second grade**_, when she then began her transition. This occurred after her mom “contacted a local LGBTQ resource center” who then connected her with a therapist. The young girl’s mom was also a key factor in the biological changes endured by her daughter, having influenced the girl’s decision to start taking puberty blockers.
**The “treatment” (hormones and puberty blockers) received by these children, and similar treatments we see across the country, including surgical genital mutilation, are considered “necessary”** to remedy the effects of gender dysphoria (a purported medical condition somehow recognized as legitimate by major medical associations in the US). The Tennessee law at issue does not issue a blanket prohibition of hormone therapy. For example, a male child with a hormone imbalance or a congenital defect may receive testosterone. The prohibition only concerns treatment of gender dysphoria.
And that’s the objection by the Biden DOJ - **that the treatment of gender dysphoria cannot be categorically banned**, even if a state’s lawmakers consider the treatment to be dangerous, ineffective, and ultimately harmful. The Biden Administration argues that the law “threatens irreparable injury” to these children and any other “transgender” children in the state of Tennessee. It says that a transgender person, whom it defines as “someone whose gender identity is inconsistent with their sex assigned at birth,” should be a protected class – that “transgender status warrants heightened scrutiny” because it is “immutable” like gender. Thus, laws that target the treatment of gender dysphoria should be given intermediate scrutiny by the courts.
The Biden Administration’s position that one’s identification as transgender should elevate them to a protected class similar to gender **has not been adopted by the Supreme Court or a majority of federal appeal circuits.** If this were to be accepted it would cause significant shift in the law and put at risk numerous state laws banning childhood gender mutilation or the administration of puberty blockers to the young. In other words, **it's their way to circumvent the legislative process.**
Tyl…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-doj-kids-have-constitutional-right-puberty-blockers
**How America's Middle Class Is Shrinking**
How America's Middle Class Is Shrinking
**America's middle class has been shrinking for the past 50 years.**
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While middle class Americans remain the biggest income group (https://www.statista.com/topics/2154/poverty-and-income-in-the-united-states/) by number of people, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below (https://www.statista.com/chart/29889/people-aggregate-income-by-income-class/), **the same can't be said of the aggregate income earned by them**.
From 1970 to 2021, the share of U.S. aggregate income earned by the middle class shrunk massively, from formerly 62 percent to just 42 percent.
During the same time, **aggregate earnings by high income Americans increased from 29 percent to 50 percent** \- despite the fact that the high income class is still less than half as big as the middle class in America.
(https://www.statista.com/chart/29889/people-aggregate-income-by-income-class/)
_You will find more infographics at Statista (https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/)_
A report by Pew Research Center (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/20/how-the-american-middle-class-has-changed-in-the-past-five-decades/) includes these numbers and also shows that **unmarried women and those in single-earner households are less likely to belong to the middle class**.
The report considers anyone whose household earns between two thirds and double of the U.S. median income to belong to the middle class.
Both the low income and the high income class have been growing in America - squeezing the middle class from both sides. **One especially alarming trend that only pertains to the low income class (https://www.statista.com/topics/781/poverty/) is that while it has been increasing in size, it has been decreasing in its share of aggregated income.** Between 1970 and 2021, earnings of the low income class decreased from an already meager 10 percent to just 8 percent.
**Black and Latino Americans are still much more likely to belong to the low income class - at around 40 percent of each group in this category compared to 24 percent of white people.**
However, the report attests one of the biggest upwards movements for Black Americans and moderate gains for Latinos. Yet, the Black middle class is still barely expanding as some gains seem to have gone straight to the Black high income class, which more than doubled in size in the past 50 years. Over the past half century, the white low income class has been expanding, but it remains much smaller than Black and Latino low income classes in relative terms.
**Looking at people who have experienced a big amount of downwards mobility in America independent of race, it has been those with less educational attainment.**
This includes people with only a high school diploma as well as those who didn't finish college.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 21:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/how-americas-middle-class-shrinking
**Unease In Israel As US Depletes Reserve Stockpiles To Fuel Ukraine War**
Unease In Israel As US Depletes Reserve Stockpiles To Fuel Ukraine War
_Via The Cradle,_ (https://thecradle.co/article-view/24110/unease-in-israel-as-us-depletes-reserve-stockpiles-to-fuel-ukraine-war-report)
Officials in Israel have raised concerns about the dwindling stockpile of US munitions stored in the country, as in recent months, Washington has been quietly shipping the armament via the Port of Ashdod to Ukraine.
**"These are Israel’s reserve stockpiles for times of war … The move has had a bigger implication in light of the threats on Israel in multiple theaters,"** an unnamed former cabinet minister told _Israel Hayom_ (https://www.israelhayom.com/2023/04/27/officials-voice-concern-as-us-taps-reserve-stockpiles-in-israel-to-help-ukraine/).
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"US equipment stored in Israel was handed over to the US armed forces, in accordance with an American request," the Israeli army said in response to a query by the news outlet.
A US official also confirmed that **"it is still not clear when the reserves will be restocked,"** as the US war machine has pivoted from fueling conflict in West Asia to new fronts in Ukraine and Taiwan.
While Kiev prepares for a critical spring offensive (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-spring-offensive.html) against the Russian army, western states have been scrambling (https://apnews.com/article/us-army-ukraine-russia-ammunition-war-75a9ca2e3be09578c65f1198ba5b72e5) to supply the European nation with enough arsenal to turn back the tide of war, as Ukrainian troops reportedly blow through 90,000 artillery shells per month – twice the rate produced by the US and Europe combined.
**Reports of the US Army tapping into its reserve stockpiles in Israel first surfaced (https://thecradle.co/article-view/20498/washington-secretly-ships-weapons-stored-in-israel-to-ukraine) in January**.
"\[The Pentagon has drawn from\] a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells," the _New York Times_ (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/us/politics/ukraine-israel-weapons.html)revealed on 17 January.
Tel Aviv reportedly agreed to allow the shipments on the condition that the Pentagon replenishes the stockpile, with Washington pledging earlier this year to "immediately ship ammunition in a severe emergency."
According to _Israel Hayom_, the "implicit understanding" between Tel Aviv and Washington has been that munitions stored in US military storage facilities **"would be earmarked for Israel in times of emergency if the Jewish state faces a major attack along the scale as the 1973 Yom Kippur War."**
Unease in the apartheid state has also spiked due to President Joe Biden’s iciness towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the ongoing rapprochement between Iran and several Arab states under the auspices of China.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 21:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/unease-israel-us-depletes-reserve-stockpiles-fuel-ukraine-war
**Biden Forgets He Went To Ireland, Tacitly Disowns Grandchild-Via-Stripper**
Biden Forgets He Went To Ireland, Tacitly Disowns Grandchild-Via-Stripper
On Thursday, **we wrote about President Biden being caught with a cheat sheet (https://www.zerohedge.com/political/photo-shows-biden-cheat-sheet-reporters-full-question-known-advance)** providing the full text of a question he would be asked by a reporter at a White House press conference. Just hours after we posted that article, **Biden demonstrated why his staffers go to great lengths** to limit situations where the 80-year-old is asked to think and speak extemporaneously.
**The Biden communications team has fully tamed the White House press corps, but the same can't be said of the group of children** who visited 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue on Thursday as part of Take Your Child to Work Day.
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?itok=a0AP0rwV)**Stumped: Biden fields questions from children without the benefit of a cheat sheet**(Win McNamee/Getty Images via (?itok=a0AP0rwV)_Fox News_ (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/child-remind-biden-which-country-last-visited-cant-remember))
Things went off the rails when **one of those children asked Biden a simple question**\-\- what was the last country the US head of state had visited?
> "The last country I've traveled — I'm trying to think the last one I was in — I, I've been to 89 — I've met with 89 heads of state so far, so, uh — I'm trying to think. **What was the last — Where was the last place I was? It's hard to keep track.** Um, I was — "
The dark comedy grew richer when **it was _another child_ who mercifully bailed Biden out**, by shouting "Ireland!"
"Yeah, you're right, Ireland," Biden replied. "That's where it was. _How'd you know that?_" Biden this week announced his re-election bid; **he would be 86 years old at the end of a hypothetical second term**.
> Joe Biden is asked by a kid the last country he visited and he can’t remember. He was in Ireland last week, which he didn’t remember until a kid told him. Good lord: pic.twitter.com/xpnklgA6sP (https://t.co/xpnklgA6sP)
>
> — Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) April 27, 2023 (https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1651647913804562437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
**Biden spent three days and nights in Ireland, in a trip that ended just 13 days before** Thursday's question. It included what should be a memorable visit to his ancestral home of County Mayo.
If this were an episode of Veep, we'd be treated to some poor White House staffer under a withering barrage of profane insults for their child having stumped the president with the simple question.
Also at Thursday's event, Biden ventured to name all his grandchildren. He listed six of them, but **he omitted Navy Joan Roberts, the 4-year-old daughter of Hunter Biden that was born to former stripper** Lunden Roberts, having been conceived while Hunter was still in a relationship with his dead brother Beau's widow (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12000567/Hunter-Bidens-baby-mama-Lunden-Roberts-demands-jail-presidents-son.html).
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?itok=HnZXHzJU)**The grandchild Joe Biden wants no part of**( (?itok=HnZXHzJU)_Daily Express_ (https://www.express.co.uk/news/us/1715957/Hunter-Biden-illegitimate-daughter-name-change-Joe-Biden-family-benefit-dxus))
"I have six grandchildren and I'm crazy about them, and **I speak to them every single day.** Not a joke." Biden told (https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1651640878803329037?s=20) the kids at the White House. After a long-winded description of the six that omitted Hunter's child, Biden concluded, "And guess what? **They're crazy about me because I pay so much attention to them."**
Hunter met Roberts when she was a stripper at a DC club. In a child support hearing last week, **Roberts asked an Arkansas judge to throw Hunter in jail** for having repeatedly failed to turn over financial records (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12000567/Hunter-Bidens-baby-mama-Lunden-Roberts-demands-jail-presidents-son.html) as part of the lawsuit's discovery process. Hunter initially denied his fatherhood, but a paternity test established that fact.
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**Lunden Roberts** (Facebook via _The U.S. Sun_) (https:…
**Is China Winning, Part Two: "How Do You Stop A Superpower"**
Is China Winning, Part Two: "How Do You Stop A Superpower"
_By Russell Clark, author of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack (https://www.russell-clark.com/p/is-china-winning-part-ii)_
**How do you stop a country from developing? That is the question that is confronting US policy makers.** At the moment, the US is adopting a number of policies including stopping technology transfers, tariffs and other regulatory barriers. The US has used this type of policy against North Korea, Cuba Venezuela and Iran, and these policies have indeed led to economic decline in these nations. The problem with this analysis, is that all of these countries lacked the economic and military heft of the US, so it was a no-brainier decision for the rest of the world to fall in line with sanctions. China is too big to assume the same results.
_
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If we want to analyze a China/US conflict, we have to go back to the Cold War era from some comparisons to think about. In my mind, broadly speaking the US was losing the Cold War during the 1970s. Not only did the US lose the Vietnam War, but Russian influence helped galvanize OPEC to place an oil embargo on exports to the US, which had built it economy around cheap and abundant oil. Hostility in the Middle East to US support for Israel played into Russia’s hands in helping to organize the oil embargo.
China is obviously aware of this historic episode, and policy in China has been to deliberately favor suppliers of commodities from non-US allies. But when we look at commodities such as corn, iron ore, LNG for example, China is still heavily reliant on the US and Australia for supplies. Could the US enforce a corn, iron ore or LNG embargo? Given the example of Russia, this would seem likely in the face of Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but otherwise unlikely.
Speaking of Taiwan, China is, like the rest of the world, heavily reliant on Taiwan for high end semiconductors. The obvious bottleneck for semiconductors is the lithography equipment produced by ASML. While I know that R&D needed to produce the EUV equipment was huge and took many years, Chinese competitors have a huge advantage over ASML. They know the technology works - which makes the R&D commitment much easier to justify. After nuclear weapons were developed and used by the US, USSR tested it own bomb 4 years later, and despite aggressive curbs on nuclear proliferation, India, Pakistan, North Korea all have nuclear weapons. I really wonder how long EUV lithography technology can stay contained to ASML.
However, while economic sanctions such as the oil embargo definitely slowed the US, the 1970s also showed that you can stop economic development more successfully through political means, rather than through trade or technology.
How did the US defeat the Soviet Union? The received wisdom that the Soviet Union and they eventually bankrupted themselves trying to keep up with the US militarily. But I am going to argue that China and Nixon were the real catalysts for the end of the Soviet Union.
Prior to and immediately after World War II, China was a close ally to the US, and was reliant on US military aid to battle Japan in Manchuria. The problem with this was that by then the average Chinese person had seen a century of humiliations at the hands of the Great Powers, who had carved out various territories and concessions from the Chinese government. The Opium Wars had seen the British force China to import narcotics, so that the British could export silk, silver and other goods. To put in mildly, Western Imperialism and trade had developed a bad name in China. This is why the Communist Revolution caused so much excitement in China. The ideas behind Communism were anti-imperialism, anti-racist, anti-sexist, anti-religion and very pro-development. They also included strong land reform element, which also helped in the appeal of communism. It was the appeal of these ideas, and chronic mismanagement of the economy by the Chinese government of the day, that led to the eventual triumph of Chinese Communist Party in 1949.
With China joining the Soviet Union as communist, you could make a legitimate argument that the world’s ideology was now communism rather than capitalism, particularly as India had fairly strong communist leanings. That is the majority of the world now operated under a planned economy (the famous 5 year plans that China still uses). So how did the US break apart this communist hegemony? Problems began when the Soviet Union had to use force to keep its Eastern European states in line. The Hungarian Uprising of 1956 was put down by force. To Chinese eyes, this made the Soviet Union just another imperial power, and led China to …
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-winning-part-two-how-do-you-stop-superpower
**Jenny Craig "Winding Down Physical Operations", Mulling Bankruptcy**
Jenny Craig "Winding Down Physical Operations", Mulling Bankruptcy
Iconic weight loss company Jenny Craig is shedding some pounds of its own, it was reported this week. The company is going to be “winding down physical operations” and is reportedly looking for a buyer, according to NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/jenny-craig-layoffs-company-warns-employees-seeks-buyer-rcna81757).
The company's employees have been warned about "potential mass layoffs", the report says, noting that the company says it “has been going through a sales process for the last couple of months.”
A company FAQ document related to the transition said: “While we had to issue Warn Notices specifically for sites where we had more than 50 people potentially impacted, this will likely impact all employees in some manner.”
It continued: “We do not know the exact employees/groups whom will be impacted, and if any employees may be retained. As a result, we would suggest that you anticipate that your employment may be impacted and begin to seek other employment.”
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The company was founded in 1983 and was recently bought by HIG Capital in April 2019, for an undisclosed amount. At the time it operated 500 stores in the U.S. and Canada, mixed between company-owned and franchised.
The company didn't return requests for comments by NBC. Bloomberg reported separately (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/weight-loss-brand-jenny-craig-mulls-bankruptcy-if-no-buyer-found?sref=6uww027M) that the company is considering bankruptcy and that a filing could come "as soon as next week", according to people with knowledge of the matter.
CEO and President Mandy Dowson told Bloomberg: “Like many other companies, we’re currently transitioning from a brick-and-mortar retail business to a customer-friendly, e-commerce driven model. We will have more details to share in the coming weeks as our plans are solidified.”
NBC says it found "dozens" of users on LinkedIn who list Jenny Craig as their employer who are now "open to work". Severance for its current employees is supposed to be “based on job level and tenure with the company", according to the FAQ, which then, also states: “However, at this time, it is highly unlikely that these will be paid.”
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 20:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jenny-craig-winding-down-physical-operations-mulling-bankruptcy
**Doug Casey On The US Government Declaring War On Mexican Drug Cartels**
Doug Casey On The US Government Declaring War On Mexican Drug Cartels
_Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,_ (https://internationalman.com/articles/doug-casey-on-the-us-government-declaring-war-on-mexican-drug-cartels/)
_**International Man**: There has been a recent push by some US politicians of the neocon variety to use the US military against Mexican drug cartels._
_Senator Lindsay Graham has proposed designating them as “terrorist organizations.”_
_Representative Dan Crenshaw introduced an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) to target drug cartels inside Mexico._
_What’s your take on this?_
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**Doug Casey**: **That’s just what the US needs: another war, and this one on the border.**
**The people who back the use of military force in Mexico can only be described as thoughtless warmongers with no grasp of either ethics or history.** If the war against organizations like the Taliban in Afghanistan was a world-class disaster, would an invasion work out better in Mexico, which has three times the population of Afghanistan, is much richer and much better organized? And they’re right on the border, which is really asking for trouble.
**The solution to the drug cartel problem is to legalize all drugs.** The fact is that anybody who wants drugs today can get them easily, even if they’re in high-security prisons. From a practical point of view, making drugs illegal doesn’t work. All it does is greatly increase the price of the drugs in the US and create huge profit margins to import them. Even if you destroyed every cartel in Mexico, people that want drugs will still want them. As long as drugs are illegal, their prices will remain high and new cartels will arise.
But despite the relaxation of penalties on cannabis, it’s highly unlikely drugs will be legalized. The DEA, one of the most corrupt Federal agencies, is a permanent lobby to keep them illegal. And there’s way, way too much money in keeping them illegal.
The only solution is to **learn a lesson from Prohibition in the 1930s.** When they illegalized alcohol in the 1920s, it created the profits that allowed the Mafia to grow. It certainly didn’t cut down the amount of drinking; it just increased the amount of crime. Similarly, the insane War on Drugs is responsible for the success of the cartels.
They say fentanyl, an important medical drug, kills 50,000 to 100,000 Americans per year. That’s mostly because its quantity and quality are uncertain, a consequence of its illegality. But the real question is ethical: Does government have a right to “protect” people against themselves? My answer is: No. If people like it, it’s their body and their business. Prohibition of alcohol—which is also quite a dangerous drug—was costly, destructive, immoral, and stupid. Fentanyl, the current _bete noir_ of busybodies, is no different.
If drugs were as easily available as aspirins through pharmacies, users would know what they were getting, and people who want them could get them at a cheap price in known doses.
Apart from recognizing that you can’t protect people from themselves, it’s important to look at the root of why many people get lost in drugs. The answer, I believe, is that they’re trying to hide from reality and blot it out. Why is that? It’s a subject for another conversation. But the irrationality and coercion caused by State intervention in private lives are part of the answer.
_**International Man**: Mexican President Obrador has stated he will not allow the US government or military to enter Mexican territory._
_It’s also well known that Mexican cartels have a significant presence inside the US._
_Suppose the US government sends the military into action in Mexico anyways._
_What do you think could happen?_
**Doug Casey**: **It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that the US has invaded Mexico.**
In the 1840s, the US basically stole all the territory in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California, from Mexico. I know you shouldn’t say that—it sounds unpatriotic. But patriotism should be focused on American values, not necessarily on supporting the actions of politicians in Washington.
In the Marine Corp’s hymn, one of the lines is “From the Halls of Montezuma” because US forces were actually fighting in Mexico City.
It happened more recently when during the Mexican Revolution in the 1910s, Pancho Villa raided across the Rio Grande, and General Pershing’s troops crossed into Mexico to (unsuccessfully) pursue him.
**There’s plenty of precedent for Americans invading Mexico, but perhaps the shoe is on the other foot now. 20 million or more Mexicans live in the US, mostly in the Southwest. Be…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/doug-casey-us-government-declaring-war-mexican-drug-cartels
**Trapped Americans In Sudan "Shocked & Disgusted" - Left By Biden To Fend For Themselves**
Trapped Americans In Sudan "Shocked & Disgusted" - Left By Biden To Fend For Themselves
**Update(1302ET):** Sudan is continuing to **stare into the abyss of full-blown civil war** as the battle for control of the capital of Khartoum between two rival generals - now reaching the two week mark - results in a mounting death toll. Currently, dozens of countries have for days been racing to get their citizens out via military transport planes, ships, and via cross-border land routes into Ethiopia and neighboring countries, **but not the United States**.
A surprisingly blunt report voicing intense criticism toward the Biden administration has been issued by CNN Friday, which writes (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/americans-sudan-us-government/index.html), "As the crisis in Sudan continues to unfold, there is **mounting anger among Americans who feel abandoned by the US government** and left to navigate the complicated and dangerous situation on their own."
CNN further points out that robust evacuation efforts are underway by many other countries. As we detailed below, a C-130 evac flight sent by Turkey even took on small arms fire while landing outside the capital. And the Chinese government has said it has successfully evacuated at least 1,300 of its nationals thus far, with state media confirming (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289826.shtml) evacuation operations ongoing by "land and sea".
"I am incredibly **shocked and disgusted** by the American lackluster response to the health and safety of their citizens," Muna Daoud told CNN, whose parents were forced to exit via Port Sudan to Saudi Arabia. And CNN follows with this (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/americans-sudan-us-government/index.html):
> _Despite a number of nations evacuating their citizens, the US government has continued to say that the conditions are not conducive to a civilian evacuation. All US government personnel were evacuated in a military operation (https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/22/politics/us-diplomatic-personnel-sudan/index.html) this weekend. US officials have said they are in “close communication” with US citizens and “actively facilitating” their departure from Sudan._
>
> _However, CNN spoke with multiple people whose family members are among the “dozens” of Americans who want to leave Sudan, and they said the **State Department has provided “barely any assistance”** since the deadly violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) broke out more than a week ago._
Another American stuck in Sudan called the embassy and State Department **"useless"**. "To be honest with you, the State Department was useless, utterly useless throughout this entire period," a man named Imad said in an interview. "We expected the Department to provide some kind of guidance, but the guidance was the template, just shelter in place, no critical information being provided."
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_SCPM: Most Chinese citizens in Sudan have been evacuated or are in the country’s ports pending transfer, China’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. Image: Weibo_ (?itok=Ah_cYTTk)
Already two American have lost their lives. CNN further presents that more are coming close to getting shot in near-miss situations due to the lack of formal US effort to get citizens safely out:
> _“The might of our military and resources does not get used to save our lives in war zones,” she said._
>
> _When CNN spoke to Daoud, her 69-year-old father and 66-year-old mother – both of whom are US citizens – were making the “harrowing” nine hour bus journey from Khartoum to Port Sudan._
>
> _“They had to find a bus this morning after waiting outside on the side of the road,” she said. Daoud said that the bus had been stopped three times by RSF soldiers “and at one checkpoint they held my father at gunpoint because they believed he was in the Sudanese Army.”_
>
> _**“They told all the men to step off the bus and searched and questioned them,” but they kept her father at gunpoint**, she described to CNN._
>
> _“My mum believed he was going to be taken or shot. Luckily they decided to let him go,” Daoud said._
Meanwhile, Chinese media pundits are mocking and gloating...
> Where is he? https://t.co/m3jVxdhWPP (https://t.co/m3jVxdhWPP)pic.twitter.com/Vx7RCGJRJ6 (https://t.co/Vx7RCGJRJ6)
>
> — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin\_GT) April 28, 2023 (https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1651961156855271425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
China's Foreign Ministry has confirmed it is sending the PLA Navy to help evacuate Chinese nationals from Sudan, defense ministry spokesman Tan Kefei on Thursday announcing that that **navy ships are on their w…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkish-evacuation-plane-comes-under-attack-sudan
**OPEC+, IEA Tensions Add To Oil's Troubles**
OPEC+, IEA Tensions Add To Oil's Troubles
_By Nour al Ali, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist_
**Tensions between OPEC+ and the IEA are likely to persist** amid concerns about the global economy and demand. That doesn’t bode well for crude in the short term.
The Brent crude prompt spread, which flipped earlier this week to trade in contango, a bearish market structure, for the first time since January, highlights growing worries about demand and refinery consumption.
The IEA renewed its criticism of OPEC+’s production cuts, saying they stoke inflation, while OPEC’s Secretary-General, Haitham Al-Ghais, said volatility in oil prices is being driven by calls to halt investment rather than OPEC’s policies.
The spat coincides with weakening oil-refining profits over the past few weeks, causing companies to consider lower processing rates. Headline oil prices have dipped below $80 as it struggled to find support.
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Bloomberg strategists see Brent’s fair value closer to $90 a barrel. But that may be difficult in the short term against the headwinds of sustained concern over recession, the potential for more monetary tightening, and weakening refining margins.
Tyler Durden (https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden)Fri, 04/28/2023 - 12:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/opec-iea-tensions-add-oils-troubles