Well for what it’s worth, the best thing I ever did was close every social media account I ever had and move to NOSTR only! My life is much more calm and focussed.
NOSTR for the good life!
Even as a hardened bitcoiner - I’d rather 50 years with my wife! ❤️
WOW!!! I thought Scotland was beautiful on snow, but BC could challenge that title. Enjoy your day, Jeff and co 🧡
My gut is telling me that Microsoft doesn’t take nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m ‘s advice and then we see two things:
1) A sell off in MSFT shares as the BTC friendly shareholders move to MSTR.
2) A push for a vote of no confidence in the MSFT exec board, because not taking Saylor’s advice is a clear display of negligence and therefore not taking their fiduciary responsibility seriously.
That looks like 1-2km? 😱
EPIC! 🏄♂️
Watching MSTR play out and find all the different takes on the “ridiculous premium” quite interesting.
New buyers of the stock are paying 3-4x premium for bitcoin and analysts are tripping over themselves to state why the premium must fall!
I’m not so sure. If I break it down to the most basic idea I’m left with this. If you had no way to buy bitcoin directly, and you thought the US adopt is soon as a strategic reserve, would you pay 3-4x for an asset today that you think goes up by a factor of 100x or more over the longer term?
I would!!
Friend just asked what are the leading indicators of a bitcoin run, like we’re seeing now. He thought the answer was useful so I’ll post it here too…
There are 3 leading indicators I watch for (but there’s really only one 🤔):
Adoption: As more people adopt bitcoin, it causes price to go up. Adoption is simply additional demand, whereas the supply is fixed at 21 million coins that will ever exist.
Having events: every 210,000 blocks the number of coins awarded to a minor for winning a block halves. That means the supply of new coins coming into the market halves. If demand for bitcoin remains the same, the price will run up until supply and demand equalise. Typically, large upward price moves start around six months after a halving. The last having was in April 2024. These large moves bring awareness and, with it, more adoption.
Global liquidity: as central banks print more money or reduce rates to allow banks to lend more, bitcoiners will borrow cheap money and buy more bitcoin. It’s essentially a derivative of adoption, if you think about it. Other than that, because there is more money coming into the global fiat monetary system, it will find its way to assets as a store of value. Most of the assets in the world are price-elastic, meaning that as they get more valuable people will create more of them. However, bitcoin is price-inelastic, because it is finite in supply, meaning it’s going to appreciate much faster than any other asset. These large moves bring awareness and, with it, more adoption.
Separate to those. There is also a growing awareness that the true state of an economy is deflation. It’s economics 101, as @JeffBooth would say. Humans will always innovate and make things cheaper across the world. It’s why our phones are now super-computers. It’s why travel went from walking,to horses, to wheel vehicles, to air flight, to space flight. More people are realising this and asking themselves “then why the hell do we have inflation?”
We have it because we run fractional-reserve banks and without monetary inflation (i.e. a lender of last resort to build them out) they will go bust! Why? Technology is driving GDP exponentially lower every year and so as more people lose their jobs, and businesses with debts go belly up, these debts are unpaid and the banks trend towards bust. Step in central bankers.
People are starting to realise that monetary inflation cannot ever stop, and is making them poorer year over year. As more realise this they’ll look for the solution and they will come to bitcoin. In doing so, they push-up adoption.
IT’S ALL JUST AN ADOPTION STORY!
Bitcoin is inevitable, the people that realise it the fastest are the ones that will be able to help their friends and family the most in future.
Bitcoin is the greatest humanitarian tool the world has ever been given.
This is why I made the change with the show.
In this interview I discuss the impending Sovereign Debt Crisis with nostr:npub13k8vp6ylmagffppknaepalcpl0g07rrkwxgdq8c732lnad4gmekq4huf2d, former Member of Parliament for Wycombe. We also discuss the economic illiteracy in government, debt, inflation and the potential for #Bitcoin.
Listen: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mTwO6j8dyJwscTUwW7ysK?si=dbb767dd79d54300
Looking forward to this one, as you’ll know 😉
Had a 2008 vintage (year we met) on ice the night I proposed to my girlfriend. Yes, she’s now my wife ❤️. We enjoyed it! Won’t be long now until you do too 👍
Watching nostr:npub1tccnjexzau3x5ea8c69v047nqfy3xm4w4yl9j788sts0usl87nhsvce6fh‘s thesis starting to play out in the bond market is proving to be very interesting.
I’m wondering is it a Trump trade or is it actually just the reality of the US (and global) credit risk position playing out? My gut says a bit of both.
As Luke would say, let’s watch…
100% agree also. When Saylor said banks will eventually lend depositors bitcoin for yield, I realised Saylor doesn’t understand bitcoin as well as he needs to. Goes to show how many more hours he needs to put into learning.
nostr:npub14mcddvsjsflnhgw7vxykz0ndfqj0rq04v7cjq5nnc95ftld0pv3shcfrlx , nostr:npub16le69k9hwapnjfhz89wnzkvf96z8n6r34qqwgq0sglas3tgh7v4sp9ffxj - enjoying the new podcast series 👍
Just watched the Saif/Saylor discussion after hearing opinions on it.
Wow, I thought Michael would understand that without a lender of last resort, you cannot run fractional reserve. Sure, people will try, but take it from a bank credit risk analyst that they will lose!
Saylor stated “If the capital doesn’t generate a return, it’s a non-performing asset.” I disagree. In time even Saylor will be reprogrammed into realising that capital doesn’t need a return when the capital is finite. The return is deflation, without the capital failing.
I have huge admiration for saylor, but I think he’s wrong on this one.
For anyone watching this, I think what nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe is trying to tell you is that that credit (I.e. fractional reserve) can never work on top of bitcoin, and hence it stays decentralised because nobody will want to centralise it into a bank for that reason. If you want to understand why that’s the case, from a different perspective to Jeff’s (but I still credit him for helping me to see it), then my paper might help you. It spells out how a bank manages its portfolio and in doing so should help you to understand why all fractional reserve bitcoin banks will fail in the end! The world will be reprogrammed into realising that yield is not required when the money is finite and decentralised! I hope it helps.
A Credit Risk Analyst’s Journey into Bitcoin https://medium.com/@kris.john.adams/a-credit-risk-analysts-journey-into-bitcoin-c035ec86ba1
I can’t fight, but I can be scathingly sarcastic!
Can you open one in Edinburgh too? 👍
